U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Microsimulation Modelling of Evacuation Scenarios at Los Alamos National Laboratory Ed Van Eeckhout, Phil Romero, Kriste Henson, Lori Dauelsberg, and Kirt Anderson

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Scenarios: Evacuation: 3 cases Normal Work Traffic Close down Pajarito Rd. Truck Route 4 lane Assumptions: 11,000 vehicles evacuation occurs over 20 minutes traffic patterns that exist today (turn counts) Current speed limitations used Study Parameters Measures: clearance time vehicles on road counted within polygon vehicles trapped in parking lots

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D TRANSIMS simulates the movement of individuals/vehicles among activities on a transportation infrastructure

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D We focus on one TRANSIMS module general characteristics –can be treated as “black boxes” –simple invocation –well-defined parameter sets –well-defined input/output file specifications several currently available –population synthesizer –activity generator –route planner –traffic microsimulator –emissions estimator –output visualizer alternate modules performing identical functions (but using different algorithms) can coexist completely new types of modules can be created

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Simulation Based on Cellular Automaton Microsimulation

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Destinations/Origins

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D The Network & Parking Lots

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Lot 64 Example

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D “Normal” Evacuation 30 mins after initiation

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D “Normal” Evacuation 90 mins after initiation

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D “Normal” Evacuation 3 hrs 34 mins after initiation: “clear”

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Sending S Site “around back” 90 mins after initiation

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D S Site & Paj Rd. Scenario 90 mins after initiation

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Movie Setup Two movies to follow: Baseline vs sp evac Split into two time slots: hr 48 mins - 3 hrs 36 mins Movies start from 7:00 am Timed such that each second is a minute

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Baseline vs sp evac: movie sp evac: hr 48 mins baseline evac: hr 48 mins

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Baseline vs sp evac: movie baseline evac: 1 hr 48 mins - 3 hrs 16 mins sp evac: 1 hr 48 mins - 3 hrs 16 mins

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Traffic Polygons

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Vehicles on Network: 2 scenarios

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D All vehicles, Baseline Scenario

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D All Vehicles, evac sp scenario

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Laboratory clearance times: 11,000 vehicles loaded over 20 minutes

U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR U N C L A S S I F I E D Conclusions Evacuation of 11,000 vehicles took up to 3 1/2 hours with one controlling signal By directing vehicles around back and down Pajarito Rd., the clearance time was improved to 2 1/2 hours, also using one controlling signal The existing system works pretty well, unless some major perturbation occurs Changing the truck route to 4 lane had little effect unless other roads blocked Closing Pajarito Rd. constricted traffic