What makes a GREAT research project? (Personal reflections on a vulnerability/adaptation science ) Thomas E. Downing SEI Oxford Office

Nature-society integration Uncertainty and integrated assessment A human dimensions working group

Nature-society integration –Millenium development goals –Mult-agent modelling

Millennium Development Goals

Do the impacts of climate change mean MDGs are more difficult to achieve? Can adaptation to climate change help achieve the MDGs? Does climate mitigation affect the MDGs?

Drivers of change Thematic networks Stakeholders Linking driving forces, institutions and stakeholders Warning and operational responses Regulation and mitigation Land use and economic development Signal events Marketisation Naturisation Rescaling decisions Inclusion/exclusion Integration Climate change n

Why a stakeholder approach? Model discourses –Can we predict human-environment interactions over the next decade and beyond? –What are formal (quantitative) models for? –How can formal models support stakeholder insight? Expanding the range of model approaches –Mulit-criteria –Multi-agent –Tolerable windows –Risk and probabilistic scenarios –Coping ranges for representative stakeholders/activities –Interactive vulnerability mapping

Uncertainty and integrated assessment How can we evaluate uncertainty in integrated assessment? –NUSAP What are the local concern? –Framing risk using the IPCC ‘reasons for concern” Do global/downscaled scenarios frame local conditions of adaptive capacity? –Compare alternative approaches

Location of uncertainty Input data Parameters Technical model structure Conceptual model sruct. /assumptions Indicators Problem framing System boundary Socio-political and institutional context

NUSAP A protocol for evaluating integrated assessments –Both models and stakeholder participation Based on the implications of post-normal science Notational system for evaluating models: –Numerical –Unit –Spread –Assessment –Pedigree University of Utrecht:

IPCC Fire Poker I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climate Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities WHAT ARE THE REASONS FOR CONCERN FOR LOCAL/REGIONAL STAKEHOLDERS? HOW GREAT ARE THE RISKS FOR THOSE CONCERNS?

How well does SRES capture local adaptive capacity? Macro driving forces are not directly related to local vulnerability Optimistic boundary conditions: –In the SRES scenario with the lowest rate of per capita growth, developing countries are as rich in 2050 as OECD countries are now Some SRES population projections are now unrealistic

A human dimensions group –Exchanges of ideas, models, training material, students –Possible project extensions Multi-agent modelling Links to climate outlooks –Representation in IHDP and other international forums