2011 Project Update: Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics Item SR-16

Presentation Goals This presentation intends to do two things: This presentation intends to do two things: – First, remind us that there remains an open action regarding the operable status of the Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics (TCIG). The TCIG project is currently experimental The Pending Decision: Continue? / Discontinue? Cannot go official until the AWIPS II era. All aspects base-lined, operations back-up functionality acquired, etc. – Second, set the stage for discussing specific action items as submitted for this year. Consider: Experiences of over a decade’s worth of events ( ) Experiences from Hurricane Irene (2011) Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Innovation ??? Pre-dates AWIPS Pre-dates AWIPS Pre-dates GFE Pre-dates GFE Pre-dates Segmented HLS Pre-dates Segmented HLS Pre-dates Graphicasts Pre-dates Graphicasts Pre-dates Private Sector Emulations Pre-dates Private Sector Emulations Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz – “situational awareness” – “decision support services” Catalyst: Hurricane Floyd (1999) Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Innovation ??? Pre-dates AWIPS Pre-dates AWIPS Pre-dates GFE Pre-dates GFE Pre-dates Segmented HLS Pre-dates Segmented HLS Pre-dates Graphicasts Pre-dates Graphicasts Pre-dates Private Sector Emulations Pre-dates Private Sector Emulations Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz – “situational awareness” – “decision support services” Catalyst: Hurricane Floyd (1999) Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics A New Era: Build a little… Test a little… Field a little.

Risk Management Room Survey: Room Survey: – “During tropical cyclone events, what important question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics answer for the anxious user?” A.) What conditions should I expect? B.) What impacts should I prepare for? Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Risk Management Room Survey: Room Survey: – “During tropical cyclone events, what important question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics answer for the anxious user?” A.) What conditions should I expect? NO B.) What impacts should I prepare for? CORRECT Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics Note: Each graphic (by hazard) answers this singular question as to facilitate users in their preparations (e.g., not to under-prepare or over-prepare).

Enhanced Web Pages Some improvements were made for – General housekeeping Disposition Code Clean-up – Impacts Descriptions Audit Pre-season Work Templates – Availability of KML files In addition to netcdf files Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics Intuitiveness (?) True DSS (?)

Push Button Meteorology ??? Room Survey: Room Survey: – “For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated results when running the associated SmartTools?” A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements. B.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/or refinements through the application of forecaster refinements through the application of forecaster expertise. expertise. Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Push Button Meteorology ??? Room Survey: Room Survey: – “For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated results when running the associated SmartTools?” A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements. NO B.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/or refinements through the application of forecaster refinements through the application of forecaster expertise. CORRECT expertise. CORRECT Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Improved Tools High Wind Tool High Wind Tool – WIKI Pages (all tools) – Developer’s Version – Final Version Prepare for official Prepare for official “Forecaster’s Dashboard” “Forecaster’s Dashboard” – Tool of tools ??? Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics Not a deterministic wind swath !!!

Maps & Keys Potential Wind Impacts for Coastal North Carolina

Improved Tools Coastal Flood Tool Coastal Flood Tool – Developer’s Version National Elevation Database National Elevation Database Land/sea mask; negative elevations Land/sea mask; negative elevations – Final Version Note: Proper tide adjustments (datum); thoughtful edit areas with masks; future input of probabilistic inundation with tide. Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics Not an inundation map !!!

Maps & Keys Potential Surge Impacts for Coastal North Carolina

Improved Tools Inland Flood & Tornado Tools Inland Flood & Tornado Tools – No Changes for 2011 – Planned changes for Inland Flood Tool Take advantage of HPC’s PQPF Take advantage of HPC’s PQPF Draft logic already in works Draft logic already in works – Input Data Sets Need to be base-lined Need to be base-lined – Logic Thresholds for Low vs. Very Low Levels Ensure that ranges are extended downward Ensure that ranges are extended downward – SPC Probabilities Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Usefulness of Gridded Data Potential Impact Grids Potential Impact Grids – Computed grid sets used by HLS Formatter – Availability to NDFD ??? IMPACT vs. THREAT IMPACT vs. THREAT – Timing question ??? – Ensure to answer timing question with correct data – GIS Interfaces – Bulleted / Tabular Information Other formatters Other formatters Complete the Picture Complete the Picture Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Decision Support Identity – TCIG or gHLS (it makes a difference) More Comprehensive – Marine Wind & Seas Marine-only events Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Decision Support Compare/Contrast Graphicasts and TCIGs – Local Information ??? – Objective Information ??? – GIS Intelligent Information ??? – Decision-making Information ??? Are you answering important questions ??? The Public Deserves Briefings Too – EM Briefings – Recorded Briefings – Point-n-Click Briefings (future; web interface) *** Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

Recommendation If continued, reconvene TCIG Team (in early 2012) to identify the list of required steps to move closer to official. – Prioritize tasking items and ascribe deadlines. – Additional technical assistance will likely be required from outside the team. Web work (e.g., more comprehensive DSS Page) Tool work (e.g., timing component)