An example of what this means for Water Supply Sustainability

Prehistoric, Contemporary, or Futuristic: To the “Hydroclimate” It’s All the Same or Is It? J. Marshall Shepherd, Ph.D Director, UGA Atmospheric Sciences Program and UGA Athletic Association Professor of Geography 2013 President American Meteorological Society

Corporations and Climate? Via New York Time

The Water Challenge…….

A “Water Cycle” Under Climate Change Stress

Messages Abound for Climate, Society, and Sustainability in these 2 Images Source: NASA MODIS

Water is always a good marker of the society and climate interface challenges…..

Is the “hydroclimate” changing? Warming Since 1970 by State

What is Climate? Climate is the long-term statistical properties of the atmosphere for an area. (years to decades) Clouds, temperature, precipitation, wind, barometric pressure, etc Weather describers these on short time scales (days to weeks) Weather is different from Climate. Weather is your Mood, Climate is your personality

But, the temperatures are increasing, while solar irradiance (output) is decreasing Figure: Skeptical Science Data: NASA GISS, Met Office HadISST 1.1; Global Historical Climatology Network

Factors Involved in Climatic Change Changes in Earth’s Orbit Milankovitch cycles refer to regular natural variations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun. Obliquity -- 41,000-year period Eccentricity ,000-year period Precession -- 27,000-year period

Past to Present Source: UNEP

So is the Earth’s Climate Warming? Source: IPCC AR5, Summary for Policymakers

So is the Earth’s Climate Warming?

It’s Not U.S. Warming

Some responses to the warming

Agung Chichon Pinatubo Observations IPCC (2007): “Most of global warming of past 50 years very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to human increases in greenhouse gases” Natural forcings only Natural and human effects Volcanoes: proof of principle that forcing changes climate. GHG increases dominate forcing and climate changes of past 50 years. Are Humans Responsible?

Averages or Extremes?

More extreme precipitation observed and expected globally Source: IPCC AR5, Summary for Policymakers, Andersen and Shepherd 2013

Drought Vulnerability

Hydroclimate variability in the SE Figure 3.8: Area of the SEUS under severe and extreme dry events (SPEI ≤ -1.5, in red) and severe and extreme wet events (SPEI ≥ 1.5, in blue), for 3-month and 12- month SPEI and for the period S. Bernardes (2013), Bernardes, Shepherd, and Madden (2014), NSF Coweeta LTER

It is not just the dry side….

Georgia: Emergence of Hydroclimate Vulnerability (KC, Shepherd, and Johnson 2013)

Climate Literacy

IMPACTS VULNERABILITIES Initial Impacts Net Impacts Autonomous Adaptations Exposure Human interference MITIGATION Policy responses CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IPCC Mitigation is reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to prevent dangerous climate change (Cap and Trade, Carbon Taxes) Adaptation is alteration of activities to minimize consequences of climate change Geo-engineering/Climate Intervention

What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr 50 years Total = 25 Gigatons carbon Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This would cost $1.25 trillion at $50/tC. A $50/tC tax or carbon trading value would raise electricity prices by almost 1 cent per kWh.

Wedges need to bend CO2 Emission Down…. 60 mpg cars; building design/ins ulation Double current capacity 50x wind or 700x current solar Reduce deforestation Successful tests completed From Socolow and Pacala

Controversy and Tactics “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”—Upton Sinclair The Tobacco Strategy The Funding Conspiracy Do you see your eye doctor when you have chest pains  Consider Sources Carefully  Consilience

Other Problems Weather vs Climate; Science Literacy (8 th grade level) Poor Communication by Scientists Activism vs The Science Psychology and Tendencies (climate change idiots, Beth Gardiner)  Imagining a life different than what we are use to.  Block out out complex problems that lack simple solutions  Creeping problems vs emergencies  Confirmation bias: Pay attention to information that reinforces our own beliefs

Teaching Climate: Watch Jargon A table from the article :Communicating the Science of Climate Change,” by Richard C. J. Somerville and Susan Joy Hassol, from the October 2011 issue of Physics Today, page 48:Communicating the Science of Climate Change,” by Richard C. J. Somerville and Susan Joy Hassol, from the October 2011 issue of Physics Today, page 48:

Hydroclimate and Water Sustainability Source: Waterbucket.ca

Thoughts from Kim Stephens “Climate change is not the driver; rather, it is a variable. Furthermore, climate change is only one factor to consider when we talk about sustainable infrastructure (society),”  Kim Stephens is Executive Director of the Partnership for Water Sustainability in British Columbia., 2007 “The key is to focus on what you want to do. Because many factors are in play, the objective is to build in resiliency to address risk. We have to know where we want to go. Then we can figure out the steps to get there. To adapt water supply systems, the question boils down to: how much water do we need, and how can we make efficient use of what is available?”