Welcome! SI/Y2 Climate and Streamflow Forecasting Workshop NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, UT – March 21-22, 2011 Organized bySponsored by CBRFC Colorado Water Conservation Board USBR NIDIS

Where are we now?  15 years of applied climate and flow forecasting research pertaining to western US  Variable use of findings within operational water prediction and management  One of the biggest usage gaps: the upper Colorado River Basin  Motivation: Increasing scrutiny of Colorado River water management

ESP first used at California-Nevada River Forecast Center NWS/HRL begins ESP development ESP first presented at the Western Snow Conference ESP used for drought assessment ESP used for water supply forecasts ESP released with NWSRFS ESP Analysis and Display Program (ESPADP) development started ESPADP deployed to the field Water Resources Forecasting Services (WARFS) quantifies value of ESP Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast pre-adjustment developed for use in ESP No lack of capacity, interest, or will e.g., NWS ESP Medium to long-range ESP short-medium- long range ESP Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS) work begins Western Snow Conference paper, 1977 Work to incorporate climate forecasts

Where are we going? * Goals Development and Researcher to Operations  Discussion of State of Practice versus State of Science  Education of External Researchers and Partners  Education of Internal Researchers and Forecasters  Design and Establishment of Testbed for Evaluation and Intercomparison  Next Steps toward Operational Advances Stakeholder Interaction  Disc… *…and how can we get out of this hand-basket? (from Pulwarty)

Agenda Today (Monday) - Introductions - Current and future USBR and CBRFC practices - Ongoing research efforts on seasonal / 2 year prediction in the Colorado Basin Tomorrow (Tuesday) - Continue discussion on ongoing research efforts - Forecast testbed design and supporting datasets - Discussion: where do we go next? Ample time built in for discussion through-out agenda Interaction with researchers and forecasters important

Logistics Lunches: - Today: catered in; use sign up sheets and pay with cash - Tomorrow: same thing? Dinner: - Group dinner tonight at Squatters Brew Pub (147 W 300 South) Wireless passcode: NWS$lc-1nternet Teleconference / gotomeeting: - Slides online here: - Room is bad for audio… when presenting please be near microphone Office Orientation / tour: - Building is shared with Weather Forecast Office and River Forecast Center; you’re welcome to interact with either staff

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Sponsors And now a word from today’s sponsors.. CWCB NIDIS Thank-you!! 8