Workshop on Energy-related National and EU-Wide Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 27 to 28 februari 2002 Emissions of CO 2 from the energy sector The Swedish Third National Communication Karin Hermanson

Models and Procedures Scenarios are developed for various sub-sectors of the energy system, and put together as an energy balance (Calculations in excel). Different methods of calculation are used for each sub-sector. Both top-down demand models and bottom-up models are used. Summing up expert knowledge We have also used the MARKAL-model for analysis of the technical energy system

Important assumptions Economic activity Energy prices Technical development The political framework, national and international The possible net import of electric power

Economic activity and energy prices GDP will grow by an average of 1,9 % over and 1,1 % from The calculations of consumer prices for oil products are based on estimated price of crude oil prepared by IEA The import prices of natural gas are based on a price forecast in the EU ”European Union Energy Outlook to 2020”

Technical developement/Efficiency assumptions No break-through technologies or substantial infrastructural changes to systems will be introduced. Only technologies that are relatively well established today.This includes wind power. Efficiency improvements, are assumed to be a continuation of historical development, which means a continuation of efficiency improvements. An exception: ”the specific use of energy for new passenger-cars” We have assumed that the ACEA-agreement will accomplish, which gives a higher effeciency rate compared with historical development.

Political Framework Present energy and environmental policy The most important assumptions in the scenariocalculations is: 1.Operating subsidy for electricity from renewable energy sources, 0,016 ECU/kWh. (an approximation of a system of trading in certificates) 2.Two alternative scenarios for the Swedish nuclear power production during Present energy- and carbon dioxide taxes 4.International; The ACEA-Agreement

The possible netimport of electric power New power generation capacity is assumed to be built in Sweden Interconnections between Sweden and neighbouring countries as at present The scenario calculations limits a net import between 4 and 6 TWh, (declining during the scenarioperiod)

Scenario results-business as usual

Comparison with the Swedish Second National Communication In NC2 emissions were estimated to rice by 10% (2010) In NC3 calculated emissions remain largely unchanged The main differences are in the district heating and electricity generation sectors Underlying reasons 1.Differences concerning policies and measures 2.Fairly small differences with regard to economic growth and fuel prices

Policies and measures A comprehensive description of policies and measures structured according to different areas of policies. A table which summarize instruments affecting emission of greenhouse gases. Evaluation of the combined effect of policies and measures

Evaluation of the effect of economic instruments

When projections? The last projection was made to the Third National Communication. Institutions connected with the formulation of national emissions projections. Mainly: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Swedish Energy Agency Swedish Institute for Transport and Communication Analysis National Institute of Economic Researh