NWS / OST Perspective on Space-Based Lidar as part of the Future Enterprise Observing System Mike Johnson Office of Science & Technology National Weather Service 24 August 2010

Overview A NWS User-Perspective on possible path to operational space-based lidar  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Business Case for Operational Space- Based Lidar  Summary A NWS User-Perspective on possible path to operational space-based lidar  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Business Case for Operational Space- Based Lidar  Summary

National Need: High-Impact Weather Information in a Weather-Sensitive Society  Severe weather to protect lives and property  Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives  Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets  Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts  Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency  Severe weather to protect lives and property  Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives  Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets  Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts  Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency Weather and climate sensitive industries account for nearly 30 percent of the Nation’s GDP (NOAA Economics Statistics Report--2008)

High Weather Impact - Payoff Aviation Weather Example Baseline Demand Future Demand >200% Sector Capacity % %  Air traffic likely doubling by 2025  Delays cost $41 billion/year (2007)  70% were weather related NextGen 2025 goal:  2/3 reduction with better weather information  Improvements to forecast lead- time for initiation of storm-scale convection, ceiling/visibility

NWS/OS&T Mission Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations  Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance)  Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions  Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation  Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next- generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc  Enable Continuous Improvement…with  Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere budget era  Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints  Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations  Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance)  Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions  Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation  Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next- generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc  Enable Continuous Improvement…with  Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere budget era  Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints  Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon

Integrated Observation and Analysis System Analysis Inventory systems, and metadata standards Assess interdepend- encies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality Current Individual Systems Public Private Universities Radar Satellite In-Situ Upper Air Etc Strategies National Mesonet Network of Networks Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR) Global Systems Multisensor platforms Optimization with OSEs, OSSEs Standards, Architectures, Protocols Maximize value of investment Future Weather Information Database Open Architecture

Overview A NWS User-Perspective on possible path to operational space-based lidar  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Business Case for Operational Space- Based Lidar  Summary A NWS User-Perspective on possible path to operational space-based lidar  NWS Science & Technology Roadmap  Business Case for Operational Space- Based Lidar  Summary

Business Case for Operational Space- Based Lidar (slide 1)  Fiscal Realities recognize competition with other observing systems, model & IT improvements, & forecast infrastructure redesign  Demonstrate technology is ready for space  Broaden Advocacy Base Caution - but don’t become all things to all users (NPOESS example). Focus on main application then develop secondary applications without system redesign  Fiscal Realities recognize competition with other observing systems, model & IT improvements, & forecast infrastructure redesign  Demonstrate technology is ready for space  Broaden Advocacy Base Caution - but don’t become all things to all users (NPOESS example). Focus on main application then develop secondary applications without system redesign

Business Case for Operational Space- Based Lidar (slide 2) Ideas for building a stronger operational case:  Demonstrate impact of global lidar wind observations on NWP Focus on short-term high-resolution model impacts to the BL forecast This should be lidar’s strongest case  Aviation Support Consider compliment to VIS/IR sensing of Volcanic Ash & SO2, (understand how lidar would fit the operational concept, don’t invent something not operationally feasible) Consider compliment to integrated-observations of cloud height, cloud phase, cloud type observations (Icing) and low-cloud and fog observations (terminal landing and take-off forecasts) Consider applications to turbulence prediction  Consider compliment to GEO sounder observations of Air Quality (including smoke & dust) detection  Other Applications? Ideas for building a stronger operational case:  Demonstrate impact of global lidar wind observations on NWP Focus on short-term high-resolution model impacts to the BL forecast This should be lidar’s strongest case  Aviation Support Consider compliment to VIS/IR sensing of Volcanic Ash & SO2, (understand how lidar would fit the operational concept, don’t invent something not operationally feasible) Consider compliment to integrated-observations of cloud height, cloud phase, cloud type observations (Icing) and low-cloud and fog observations (terminal landing and take-off forecasts) Consider applications to turbulence prediction  Consider compliment to GEO sounder observations of Air Quality (including smoke & dust) detection  Other Applications?

Summary  Presented portions of NWS Science & Technology Roadmap to demonstrate user priorities focus on short term forecasting at high spatial & temporal resolution  Discussed some thoughts on path to realizing an operational space-based lidar mission  Demonstrate technical feasibility through ADM>>GWOS  Concurrently demonstrate impacts to operational models  Pursue secondary applications to broaden user advocacy  Presented portions of NWS Science & Technology Roadmap to demonstrate user priorities focus on short term forecasting at high spatial & temporal resolution  Discussed some thoughts on path to realizing an operational space-based lidar mission  Demonstrate technical feasibility through ADM>>GWOS  Concurrently demonstrate impacts to operational models  Pursue secondary applications to broaden user advocacy

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Service Area Goals Science Service Area Key Products/ Services S&T Goal 2025 Examples Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples Fire WeatherRed Flag Warning>24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% PODSimulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior HydrologyInundation ForecastsDependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles AviationConvection Initiation30 mins LTInitiation and evolution of convection Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter HazardsHigh-Res User-Defined ThresholdsSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter Storm Warning30 hour LTSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Accuracy >85% out to day 5Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter >90% accuracy, out to day 2Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind <5 mins after triggering eventEnhanced observations and models 1km resolution, 5 min updatesMeteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems Air Quality Predictions Geomagnetic Storm Warnings Tsunami Warnings Wind Forecasts Air Quality Space Weather Tsunami Emerging Areas/ Surface Wx

Program Observation Requirements Document (PORD) Description: Summary (report) of Program observing system requirements Requirements independent of current or planned platforms Recipients: Hardcopy/ to program managers,NOSC, etc Application: Allows program managers to review and verify current observing requirements 13 Slide excerpts courtesy of NESDIS/TPIO