3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 1 Final Version 2.2 Travel Demand Model Documentation Part II Presentation to the TPB Travel Forecasting Subcommittee Ron Milone March 21, 2008 TFS_Pres_Ver2.2model_3_21_2008.ppt Item #2

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 2 Recent Events Jan. 18, 2008Version 2.2 model used in TPB’s conformity work; draft report distributed to TFS Late January – mid-February Additional refinements implemented; conformity scenarios re-run with refinements Late FebruaryModel documentation finalized; transmittal package prepared March 1, 2008Documentation is posted on the TPB web site. TPB responded to outstanding requests

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 3 Final Documentation on Website

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 4 Version 2.2 Documentation What’s included: 1.Overview of features & description (Ch. 1) 2.Inputs & model specification (Ch. 2-8) 3.Validation (Ch. 9) 4.User’s application guide (Ch ) 5.Technical appendix Detailed model output summaries Application listings (scripts, batch files, etc.) Flowcharts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 5 Distinguishing Features of Ver Commercial vehicle model added 2.Revised/moderated external traffic forecasts 3.Revised volume-delay functions and added queuing delay function to freeway volume- delay formulation 4.Reduction/removal of model adjustments (K factors, etc.) 5.60 Iterations of user equilibrium traffic assignment

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 6 Latest Refinements: #1 of 3 Modified approach for disabling ‘dummy links’ from queuing delay Revised approach identifies link disabling on a time-of-day basis; this is more accurate

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 7 Latest Refinements: #2 of 3 Modified highway toll skims development wrt. the mode choice model Highway skims are normally developed by mode (SOV, HOV 2-occ, HOV 3+occ) and include time, distance, toll Tolls are now expressed differently, based on toll policy type: –Fixed toll facilities (e.g., Gov. Nice Bridge, Dulles Toll Road) –Variably priced toll facilities (HOT Lanes in Virginia, electronic toll lanes in Md.)

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 8 Latest Refinements: #3 of 3 Modified highway toll skims development wrt. the mode choice model Previous highway skim definition Time (in min) Distance (in 1/10s of mi.) Toll on any facilities (in cents) Updated highway skim definition Time plus time equivalent of monetary toll values on variably priced toll facilities only (in min) Distance (in 1/10s of mi.) Toll on fixed price toll facilities only (in cents)

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 9 Previous and Revised Traffic Growth Projections at all External Stations

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 10

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 11 Note: V2.1D#50 model results are based on Round 7.0a Cooperative Forecasts; V2.2 model results are based on Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecasts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 12 Note: V2.1D#50 model results are based on Round 7.0a Cooperative Forecasts; V2.2 model results are based on Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecasts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 13 Note: V2.1D#50 model results are based on Round 7.0a Cooperative Forecasts; V2.2 model results are based on Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecasts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 14 P/A Balance Over Time Based on V2.2 Trip Generation and Round 7.1 Coop. Forecasts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 15 Special Modeling Applications (Reference page 1-10 in Model Report) Some forecasts are developed using elements of two model executions. This approach is used to reflect special policy conditions: 1.Transit constraint: 2010 transit trips are used to constrain modeled 2020, 2030 transit trips to/through the regional ‘core’ 2.HOT lane modeling: HOV level-of-service matrices are specially developed in ‘initial’ model executions; the ‘initial’ HOV skims are used in the ‘final’ model execution

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 16 Transit Constraint (Applied in 2020, 2030 simulations) –Reason: Infrastructure limitations will constrain peak Metrorail travel to/through the regional ‘core’ to 2010 levels –Approach: model run is executed; 2010 final iteration transit trips created / 2030 model runs are executed; after mode choice step, peak transit trips to/through the regional core are compared to 2010 levels /2030 peak transit trips exceeding 2010 levels are converted to auto trips

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 17 HOT Lane Modeling (Applied in 2010, 2020, 2030 simulations) Reason: VA policy assumes that HOV service levels will be maintained with HOT lane operation Approach: 1.An initial run is executed with the HOT lane facility simulated as an HOV-priority facility (hypothetical). HOV level of service (LOS) matrices for each iteration are developed. This is known as a ‘BASE’ model execution 2.A second model run is executed, with the HOT lane facility accordingly coded (pay SOV’s and free HOV’s are allowed access). Initial tolls rates are used. The final assignment is then run iteratively, so that tolls rates are developed by segment and time-period (off-line step) 3.A final run utilizes the HOV LOS matrices developed in Step 1 with the toll rates developed in Step 2. This final model execution is known as the ‘Conformity’ run

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 18 TPB Forecasts Must Be Executed in Sequence Model years available: 2000, 2002, 2005, , 2020, 2030 ‘Early’ years (2000 – 2009) are not dependent upon prior runs ‘Out’ years are dependent on prior runs; recommended sequence: Base Conformity Base Conformity Base Conformity

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 19 Version 2.2 Model Execution Applied in a ‘command prompt’ window Structured application –Standardized subdirectory system –Pre-established batch files –Generically named inputs and outputs that are established in specific subdirectories

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 20 Why use specific subdirectories, generic names, and batch files? It minimizes model preparation time Generically named inputs and outputs facilitates the ability to prepare comparative summaries between alternatives It enables the analyst to focus on what’s important: –the accuracy of inputs –the analysis of outputs

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 21 Version 2.2 Subdirectories \Version2.2_Xmittal\ (batch files) \SOFTWARE \CONTROLS \SCRIPTS \SUPPORT \2000_ModDev \Inputs \2002_Conf \Inputs \2005ModDev \Inputs. \2030_Conf \Inputs  ‘Root’ Subdirectory / name arbitrary, typically project related  ‘Boilerplate’ subdirectories for model application Subdir. names must be as shown  ‘Model ‘output’ subdirectories / name is arbitrary  ‘output’ subdirs. must have a ‘child’ subdirectory named ‘Inputs’ where modeling inputs reside. Input files are named generically

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 22 Batch File Types in the Root SD NOTE: the _Year_ variable must be accurately defined (e.g. ‘_year = 2030’) Batch FilesPurpose Primary batch file (e.g., Runall2000.bat) Defines secondary batch file, output subdirectory (used in sec. batch file, and generates run time / log files Secondary batch file (e.g., Runall_2000.bat) Defines sequence of iterations and modeling steps, defines year (_year_), and model description (_Alt_) Model Step batch files (Set_Factors.bat)... (Highway_skims.bat) Calls scripts/ programs to execute individual modeling steps and to provide iteration-specific file output names  User enters this batch file name at command prompt  Pre-established file ‘called’ by primary batch file  Pre-established file ‘called’ by secondary batch file

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 23 Primary Batch File :: runall2000.bat, :: Source: M:\model_dev\Version2.2_Jan08_Xmittal set root=E:\model_dev\Version2.2_Jan08_Xmittal set scenar=2000 set runbat=runall_2000.bat set fullpth=%root%\%scenar% :: Std error redirected to a file; Std output split between file and screen timethis "cmd /c %runbat% %scenar% 2> %fullpth%\%scenar%_errs.txt" | tee %fullpth%\%scenar%_output.txt start %fullpth%\%scenar%_errs.txt start %fullpth%\%scenar%_output.txt :: Cleanup set root= set scenar= set fullpth= set runbat= Output Subdirectory Root Subdirectory Secondary batch file Output log and error listing files

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 24 Example Section of Secondary Batch File :: runall_2000.bat :: TPB Travel Model, Version 2.2 set _year_=2000 set _alt_=Version_2.2 :: Make sure appropriate MC control files exist in \controls SD :: and copy to generic names in the output SD. if not exist controls\mc_hbw00.ctl goto err if not exist controls\mc_hbs00.ctl goto err if not exist controls\mc_hbo00.ctl goto err if not exist controls\mc_nhb00.ctl goto err copy controls\mc_hbw00.ctl %1\mchbw.ctl /y copy controls\mc_hbs00.ctl %1\mchbs.ctl /y copy controls\mc_hbo00.ctl %1\mchbo.ctl /y copy controls\mc_nhb00.ctl %1\mcnhb.ctl /y rem ====== Pump Prime Iteration ========================================== set _iter_=pp set _prev_=pp call Set_Factors.bat %1 call Set_CPI.bat %1 call PP_Highway_Build.bat %1. call Highway_Assignment.bat %1 call Highway_Skims.bat %1 rem ====== End of batch file =============================================

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 25 Model Step Batch File Example Highway Assignment CD %1 REM Highway Assignment del tppl*.* del %_iter_%_Highway_Assignment.rpt start /w TPPLUS.EXE..\scripts\Highway_Assignment.s /start -Ptppl -S..\%1 if errorlevel 1 goto error copy tppl*.prn %_iter_%_Highway_Assignment.rpt copy %_iter_%_Highway_Assignment.rpt temp.dat..\software\extrtab temp.dat copy extrtab.out %_iter_%_Highway_Assignment.tab goto end :error REM Processing Error.... PAUSE :end CD..

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 26 Version 2.2 Modeling Step Batch Files

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 27 Sequence of Version 2.2 Modeling Steps by Iteration

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 28 What Files are in the Inputs SD? 42 files are required consisting of: –Land use files –Exogenous trip files –External, through trip files –Highway/transit network files –2 optional transit access link files may be used if desired (be careful) Recommendation: DO NOT mix and match V2.1D inputs with V2.2

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 29 Land Use / Trip Inputs

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 30 Network Inputs

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 31 Iteration 6 Outputs: Transit

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 32 Iteration 6 Outputs: Transit Fares

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 33 Iteration 6 Outputs: Trip Gen.

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 34 Iteration 6 Outputs: Trip Dist.

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 35 Iteration 6 Outputs: Mode Choice

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 36 Iteration 6 Outputs: Assignment, Highway Skims

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 37 Link variables on the final loaded-link highway network (i6hwy.net)

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 38 Link variables on the final loaded-link highway network (i6hwy.net)- continued = pp, i1, i2,…..i6

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS 39 Conclusions Version 2.2 model is now ‘on-line’ TPB is currently responding to 10 requests Version 2.2 represents an improvement in the TPB’s travel forecasting practice –Fewer adjustment factors used –Freeway queuing delay is now addressed –More realistic external traffic assumptions used Version 2.2 will continue to be monitored and refined, as is the case with any production model TPB’s models development activities are continuing: Version 2.3 is in progress