1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 22, 2015 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over entire India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Burma, and almost all of China was at near-normal or slightly above normal levels. However, rainfall was much below normal over Laos, North and South Vietnam and Cambodia, Philippines, parts of Malaysia and Indonesia, and below normal over large parts of northern and north central Australia.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, precipitation deficits have intensified over many southeast Asian countries including Laos, North and South Vietnam, Cambodia and in southern China especially along the border of Burma. The advance of SW summer monsoon into central and north India is delayed by more than a week and it is beginning to show in rainfall deficits in those regions.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the precipitation was in general slightly below normal over large parts of south east Asia. Above normal rains fell over the narrow Western Ghats region and over south central India associated with a low pressure trough over central Bay of Bengal extending northwestward into India. The Andhra region of India, where most deaths occurred in May because of excessive heat, received plenty of rain this past week.

6 Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

7 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

10 Summary For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over entire India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Burma, and almost all of China was at near-normal or slightly above normal levels. However, rainfall was much below normal over Laos, North and South Vietnam and Cambodia, Philippines, parts of Malaysia and Indonesia, and below normal over large parts of northern and north central Australia. For the past 30 days, precipitation deficits have intensified over many southeast Asian countries including Laos, North and South Vietnam, Cambodia and in southern China especially along the border of Burma. The advance of SW summer monsoon into central and north India is delayed by more than a week and it is beginning to show in rainfall deficits in those regions. In this past week, the precipitation was in general slightly below normal over large parts of south east Asia. Above normal rains fell over the narrow Western Ghats region and over south central India associated with a low pressure trough over central Bay of Bengal extending northwestward into India. The Andhra region of India, where most deaths occurred in May because of excessive heat, received plenty of rain this past week. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting the advance of SW monsoon into northern India and above normal rain in east central China. Elsewhere, the model predicts below normal rainfall across much of the southeast Asia.

11 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

12 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

13 Climatology