U.S. Climate Change Science Program & Climate Change Technology Program Updates NOAA Science Advisory Board Meeting July 14, 2004 James R. Mahoney, Ph.D. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere Director, Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

CCSP Milestones NOV 2002 Discussion Draft of CCSP Strategic Plan DEC 2002 CCSP Planning Workshop for Scientists and Stakeholders JAN 2003 Written comments received from scientific and user communities FEB 2003 NRC report, Planning Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Draft U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan JULY 2003 Publication of the (revised) Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program FEB 2004 NRC report, Implementing Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

National Research Council Review on (final) CCSP Strategic Plan “The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program articulates a guiding vision, is appropriately ambitious, and is broad in scope.” “In fact, the approaches taken by the CCSP to receive and respond to comments from a large and broad group of scientists and stakeholders, including a two-stage independent review of the plan, set a high standard for government research programs.” “As a result, the revised strategic plan is much improved over its November 2002 draft, and now includes the elements of a strategic management framework that could permit it to effectively guide research on climate and associated global changes over the next decades.” “The plan addresses much of the critical science in a strategic framework that places the research it proposes in the context of national needs.”

CCSP Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) Products Apr 1, 2004 Pubic Comment Period for Draft Guidelines for the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products (Guidelines) May 7, 2004 Public comment period ended for the Guidelines and 35 pages of comments were received July 8, 2004 Product 1.1 prospectus posted for pubic comment on CCSP web site and Federal Register (on 7/13). July 30, 2004 Revised Guidelines to be posted

Product Number The Nine Near Term (within two years) Synthesis and Assessment Products 1.1Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—steps for understanding and reconciling differences. [STATUS: Prospectus out for public comment] 1.2Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes. 2.1Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with the CCTP. Review of integrated scenario development and application. 2.2North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle. 3.1Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis. 4.1Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise. 5.1Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision-support for selected sectors and regions. 5.2Best-practice approaches to characterize, communicate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. 5.3Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data.

Climate Change Science Program FY 2005 Request Research Budget ($M)

CCSP Priorities Administration Priorities Reduce scientific uncertainties in aerosols Reduce scientific uncertainties in carbon sources and sinks (and water cycle) Improve climate observations Improve climate modeling systems Strategic Plan Priorities Enhance decision support capabilities Enhance communications

FY06 Budget Exercise Coordinated approach to climate science priorities are consistent across the federal government Requiring agency principals to have knowledge of and integrate, when appropriate, climate programs across their entire agency

Challenges Ahead for CCSP As always, the budget process Scientific prioritization for the government and each individual agency Achieving high quantity deliverable stream Maintaining credibility Maintaining interaction with the scientific and international communities, as well as the users Delivering the best possible science to inform decisionmakers

Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)

The Near Term Goal: Reducing GHG Intensity Goal: 18% GHG intensity reduction by MMTCE reductions from Tools: Policy Science Technology International Cooperation

CCTP 2003 Major Deliverables Research and Current Activities Report Reducing emissions from energy end-use and infrastructure Reducing emissions from energy supply Capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide Reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases Enhancing measurement and monitoring capabilities Technology Options Report Hydrogen Fuel/Freedom CAR (Cooperative Automotive Research) IPHE (International Partnership on Hydrogen Economy) FutureGen CSLF (Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum) Nuclear Power Gen IV ITER

Technology Options for the Near and Long-Term Transportation Buildings Infrastructure (Grid) Industry Low-emissions fossil- based power and fuels Hydrogen Renewable energy and fuels Nuclear fission Nuclear fusion Geologic sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Ocean sequestration Methane emissions Other High GWP Gases Tropospheric Ozone Precursors and Black Carbon Measurement and Monitoring

Policy Actions for Near-Term Progress Voluntary Programs Climate VISION ( Climate Leaders ( SmartWay Transport Partnership ( 1605(b) Tax incentives/deployment partnerships Fuel Economy Increase for Light Trucks USDA Incentives for Sequestration USAID and GEF funding Initiative Against Illegal Logging Tropical Forest Conservation

Climate Change Technology FY05 Request $3 billion in technology

Climate Change Technology FY05 Request

CCTP Strategic Plan – Late 2004 Introduction/Context Goal Chapters Role for Technology R&D Strategy Current Portfolio Emphasis Future Applied Research Directions Focusing Basic Science Contributions Conclusion and Appendices

CCTP and CCSP Collaborations Carbon Sequestration Emissions Scenarios (S&A Product for CCSP)

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