Recent developments in container liner shipping Frans Waals Editor “DynaLiners” Senior Shipping Consultant

Credit Risk Assessment Credit Reports, Constant Monitoring Dynamar Activities Credit Risk Assessment Credit Reports, Constant Monitoring Marine Intelligence Marine Investigation, Vessel Tracking Consultancy Liner, Container, Bulk Shipping Publications DynaLiners, Container Trade Studies, Special Reports But at first, if you allow me, a few words on Dynamar: Founded in 1981, we are a, I dare say prominent, Shippng and Transport Information and Consultancy company. - Our core activity is credit risk assessment, specialised in the maritime industry and the bunker/oil and container industry in particular. There hardly is any KG financed ship without a Dynamar rating on the prospective charterer. This activity brings us in daily intense contacts with a great many shipping companies. -          Marine Intelligence amongst others tracks and locates ships and cargoes, and helps you preventing and/or detecting fraud -          All the information gathered during our daily market scans and contacts with shipping companies form the basis of our consultancy activities Spearheaded by our weekly newsletter Dyna Liners, we publish S5 (titels) S6 an increasing number of special reports on carriers, trades and shipping insight topics

Trades and liner services

World Container Trade

East West Trades TA E/FE TP TP E/FE How would the Maersk Line liner pattern develop when the P&O Nedlloyd integration has all been set and done? Dynamar is not the only one to think that it will not be too much remote from the once provoked Equatorial Pendulum concept. It will then be in the shape of a S46 Conveyor Belt stretching from North Europe via the Mediterranean, the Middle East and East Asia to the West Coasts of North and Central America and back, as long as the Panama Canal is not enlarged. However, instead of relaying all boxes at the major hubs already under control, which include Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Algeciras, Port Said, Salalah, Port Tanjung Pelepas, Shanghai and Los Angeles, parallel operations will run alongside or adjacent to the conveyor belt on the thicker cargo routes (including the Atlantic) to reduce transhipment to the optimal minimum. TP E/FE

Parallel Trades Med/NA TP/USEC Med/FE TA E/FE TP TP E/FE How would the Maersk Line liner pattern develop when the P&O Nedlloyd integration has all been set and done? Dynamar is not the only one to think that it will not be too much remote from the once provoked Equatorial Pendulum concept. It will then be in the shape of a S46 Conveyor Belt stretching from North Europe via the Mediterranean, the Middle East and East Asia to the West Coasts of North and Central America and back, as long as the Panama Canal is not enlarged. However, instead of relaying all boxes at the major hubs already under control, which include Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Algeciras, Port Said, Salalah, Port Tanjung Pelepas, Shanghai and Los Angeles, parallel operations will run alongside or adjacent to the conveyor belt on the thicker cargo routes (including the Atlantic) to reduce transhipment to the optimal minimum. Med/NA TP TP/USEC E/FE Med/FE

North South Trades Med/NA Mid East TP/USEC ISC Africa Med/FE Lat.Am E/FE TP How would the Maersk Line liner pattern develop when the P&O Nedlloyd integration has all been set and done? Dynamar is not the only one to think that it will not be too much remote from the once provoked Equatorial Pendulum concept. It will then be in the shape of a S46 Conveyor Belt stretching from North Europe via the Mediterranean, the Middle East and East Asia to the West Coasts of North and Central America and back, as long as the Panama Canal is not enlarged. However, instead of relaying all boxes at the major hubs already under control, which include Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Algeciras, Port Said, Salalah, Port Tanjung Pelepas, Shanghai and Los Angeles, parallel operations will run alongside or adjacent to the conveyor belt on the thicker cargo routes (including the Atlantic) to reduce transhipment to the optimal minimum. Med/NA TP Mid East TP/USEC ISC E/FE Africa Med/FE Lat.Am Australasia

East West Volumes

FEFC – 1Q 2008 Westbound, 11.9% growth in the first three months Eastbound, 3.8% decline in the first two months

US Trades – Export US exports booming Especially to Europe, South America, ME and Africa

US Trades - Import US imports declining, after strong earlier growth Imports twice as big as exports Especially from South America

Latin America Europe average growth, Far East strong growth Very imbalanced trades

Indian Sub Continent Strong growth Europe-ISC – balanced Far East-ISC – large imbalance

Middle East Average growth rates Significant Imbalances

Australia Average growth rates Balanced trades Low volumes

Africa Europe average growth, Far East fairly high growth Huge imbalances

East West Service developments Transpacific Reduction of number of services More carriers cooperating through vessel sharing agreements Long winter season, much temporary capacity reduction Transatlantic Cooperating through vsa or slot charter agreements Some carriers withdrawing completely Europe/Mediterranean – Far East Increasing number of services Use of larger vessels Introduction of mega container ships (10/15,000 TEU) Focusing on serving specific areas (e.g. Black Sea) Introducing more ships per service to save on fuel costs

North South Service developments Latin America Overcapacity Carriers cooperating or withdrawing altogether Indian Sub Continent (Too?) many new services launched Middle East More direct services Many feeder services Australasia Restructuring - new services started, existing disappearing (Far East trade) Many vessel sharing agreement Africa Dedicated services to north coast from Far East, through transshipment in Med

Ports

Port Handlings

Multi-Millionaires Shanghai to become world’s largest container port this year?? Hong Kong stagnating, to be overtaken by Shenzhen soon Dubai Soaring Kaohsiung overtaken by other ports

China All ports reporting strong growth Even “smaller” port handle multi-million TEU

HLH range Le Havre and Zeebrugge record strong growth Other ports growing respectable 10-15% increases

US West Coast Overall stagnating Imports stabilizing Exports booming Empties significantly reduced

US West Coast - 1Q 2008 Imports falling Exports double-digit growth

US East Coast Still growing Significant differences by port

First 2008 developments China Europe USWC USEC Continues fast growth Modest growth (Antwerp and Rotterdam 6%) USWC Export booming, import declining, trade imbalance reducing USEC No figures available

Carriers and their fleets

Carrier fleet size

Fleet size compared

Consolidation

Total annual liftings

Liftings by East West Trade (2006)

Current ships size and order book

Forecasted Fleet Growth Assuming no scrapping!

ULCS (10,000+ TEU)

Freight and costs Freight Cost USD falling – some carriers switching to Euro onspecific trades Revenues increasing, though very trade related Surcharges Cost Fuel costs are rocketing (>USD 500/tonne) Charter hire increased, but more or less stabilised

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