Second thoughts on globalisation Mark Thirlwell 4 April 2007

Globalisation: good for growth... Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

Globalisation: good for growth... Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database Trend growth has risen by about one percentage point (3.4% - 4.4%) between 1980 and 2007

... good for inflation... Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

... good for inflation... Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database The ‘Great Moderation’ in inflation

... and good for China and India Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

... and good for China and India Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database By 2005 China and India accounted for about 21% of world GDP at PPP rates

... and good for China and India Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database On the same basis, China was the world’s 2 nd largest economy, and India in 4 th place

Six rich country worries Scared by success Spooked by security Ill at east with inequality Troubled by trade Rattled by resource security Exercised by the environment

Remaking the world economy Sources: Angus Maddison (2006)

Remaking the world economy Sources: Angus Maddison (2006) Before the start of C19th globalisation, China and India may have accounted for half of world GDP

Remaking the world economy Sources: Angus Maddison (2006) Before the start of C19th globalisation, China and India may have accounted for half of world GDP On fairly conservative assumptions, share back up to one third by 2030

“Economists argue that in economic competition what counts are absolute not relative gains; to economists this is a self-evident truth. It is however, self-evident to almost no one but economists... they are blind to the fact that economic activity is a source of power as well as well-being. It is, indeed, probably the most important source of power, and... will be increasingly important in determining the primacy and subordination of states.” “Why international primacy matters” Samuel Huntington (1993)

Good for global inequality... Sources: Bourguignon and Morrison (2002) and Sala-i-Martin (2006)

Good for global inequality... Sources: Bourguignon and Morrison (2002) and Sala-i-Martin (2006) Global inequality may have peaked around 1980

... but not for national inequality Sources: US Census Bureau

... but not for national inequality Sources: US Census Bureau 2005 Gini index highest yet recorded

Does labour lose out? Sources: World Bank and US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Does labour lose out? Sources: World Bank and US Bureau of Labor Statistics In 2005, China accounted for about 25½ % of the potential global labour force, and India another 14½%

Reshaping world trade Sources: WTO International trade statistics

Reshaping world trade Sources: WTO International trade statistics China now the world’s third largest trading nation, accounting for 7% of exports, 6% of imports

Reshaping world trade Sources: WTO International trade statistics India’s share of ‘other’ commercial services exports up from 0.5% in 1996 to almost 4% by 2005

US-China trade tensions Sources: US Department of Commerce

US-China trade tensions Sources: US Department of Commerce 2006 bilateral deficit of US$232.5 billion

Resource hunger Sources: BP Handbook of Energy Statistics 2006, Various

Resource hunger Sources: BP Handbook of Energy Statistics 2006, Various China is now the world’s largest consumer of the major metals and the second largest consumer of energy

Resource hunger Sources: BP Handbook of Energy Statistics 2006, Various China is now the world’s largest consumer of the major metals and the second largest consumer of energy More than 30% of growth in oil consumption; more than 45% growth in aluminium, copper and steel consumption; three- quarters of coal, tin and nickel consumption growth

Environmental strains Sources: EIA International Energy Outlook

Environmental strains Sources: EIA International Energy Outlook Share of CO2 emissions in 2004: 21.5%. But share of cumulative emissions much lower (less than 10%)

Six developments to track Renewal of TPA in the US and the future of the Doha Round May’s SED in Washington China’s new economic model? IMF (quota) reform ‘Greening’ globalisation

Second thoughts on globalisation Mark Thirlwell 4 April 2007