Overview of Predictions/Monitoring of 2004 Hurricanes A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services March 22, 2005

Outline Purpose Issues Presentation of Briefing

Purpose Present an information briefing on the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season and discuss successes and opportunities for improvement

Opportunities for Improvement Issues Opportunities for Improvement Improving Intensity Forecasts Communicating Uncertainty Multi-model Ensembles (AKA super-ensembles)

2004 Hurricane Season Summary NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook issued in May called for 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes. Final season tally: 15 named tropical or subtropical storms with 9 hurricanes including 6 major hurricanes. $45B in damages and 60 direct deaths in the U.S.

2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Title: 2004 Atlantic hurricane season Atlantic Hurricane Season -- Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield called this past hurricane season one to tell our grandchildren about. Predictions of an active Atlantic hurricane season. We had three tropical storms (Bonnie, Hermine, and Matthew) and six hurricanes (Alex, Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, and Jeanne) directly affected the United States.

2004 Highlights Florida Hurricanes Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne First time four hurricanes have hit Florida in a single season. Last time one state was hit by four hurricanes in a single season was Texas back in 1886. Number of tornadoes associated with each hurricane: Charley – 9, Frances – 110, Ivan – 105, Jeanne – 27 for a total of 251 tornadoes for these 4 storms. Our products were heavily used as the TPC/NHC web site and the mirror sites had a total of 3.1 billion hits. The Weather Channel began scrolling our Hurricane Local Statements (HLS) this year and is looking to expand use of the HLS next year. To give you a feel for the impact of the hurricane season: In Florida alone the total number of recommended mandatory and voluntary evacuations ordered by Emergency Managers for the 4 storms along the Florida and Gulf coasts was 9.5 million people. The damage caused by hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne prompted the largest relief effort ever undertaken by FEMA The 12 storms this season have resulted in 21 federal disaster declarations covering 13 states and Puerto Rico. Four hurricanes affected Florida in a six-week span. The last time any state experienced four direct hits was Texas in 1886. Certainly a lot of work done by many people made for a successful season, but we have some room to improve: Ivan Jeanne

Inland Flooding from Hurricanes 2004 Highlights Inland Flooding from Hurricanes (Bridge is Interstate 10 near Pensacola after Ivan) Inland Flooding and AHPS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service helped warnings of inland flooding after tropical storms made landfall in the U.S. After the initial impact of a hurricane, the media and people not directly affected, often stop paying attention to the storm. 50%+ However, this year alone, there were approximately 20 deaths and an estimated $5 billion in damage caused by inland flooding. During this time, the NWS Hydrologic Services Program provided flood warnings and forecasts for every major hurricane to affect the U.S., and our Southeast River Forecast Center in Atlanta did an especially outstanding job. Every major hurricane to affect the U.S. this year also had a huge effect on our Southeast River Forecast Center in Atlanta. Half of all hurricane fatalities due to inland flooding, as far north as New York and, in the cases of Frances and Ivan, southern New England. With over half of all hurricane fatalities due to inland flooding, 2004 was a particularly precarious year. While most hurricanes made landfall in the Southeast, flooding extended as far north as New York and, in the cases of Frances and Ivan, southern New England. Often with 3-5 days of lead time, NOAA's River Forecast Centers provided timely and accurate forecasts. NOAA's Southeast, Middle Atlantic, Ohio and Northeast River Forecast Centers collectively provided over 1,000 flood forecasts during the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The four centers serve almost 150 million people. Partners include USGS and NOAA’s volunteer cooperative observers AHPS is incorporating new advanced modeling capabilities and probabilistic forecasting, AHPS is providing improved display and dissemination via web based displays - improvements in river forecasts from new and better calibrated models. Near future can be seen in flood inundation mapping systems online

NHC Official Track Error Trend – Atlantic Basin Proud of the efforts by research community and operational forecasters – hard work is paying off! Over the past 15 years, the 12 hours to 72 hour forecast errors have been reduced by 50%

President Bush Visit September 2004 President Bush visited the TPC/NHC during September 2004, the first sitting President ever to visit the office. Both Houses of Congress passed resolutions honoring NOAA Enterprise Team – Satellites, Buoys, Researchers, IT, Forecasters, NHC, Private Sector, Media, EM Good performance was rewarded with Hurricane Supplemental Bill. Supplemental FY05 funding provided for: The U.S. Air Force hurricane hunters to place Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometers (SFMR) on the C130-J aircraft. The SFMR is a valuable tool helping hurricane forecasters estimate the radius of tropical storm and hurricane force winds as well as better estimate the maximum sustained surface winds in tropical cyclones. Knowing the wind radii and strength are critical for emergency management decisions and mariners. Upgrades to the NOAA G-IV aircraft (NMAO). NOAA G-IV upgrade will allow for critical data for input into the HWRF model providing for improved intensity forecasts For the research (OAR) and modeling improvements (NWS/NCEP) which includes the Hurricane Weather Research Forecast Model (HWRF). Six additional buoys (NWS) will provide multiple air/sea measurements (example wind speed/direction, wave height) which will help the tropical and marine programs. Habitat restoration (oyster bed restoration, reseeding, rehab) (NMFS)

Hurricane Supplemental – Funding Summary OR&F $ in thousands Line Office Comments Marine Buoys $1,800k NWS Install 7 New Marine Buoys in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean Research and Model Improvements $2,000k NWS, OAR, NESDIS $1,000 to NWS for Hurricane WRF, $300k to NESDIS for EOS/POES Microwave Data, $700 to OAR Hurricane Intensity Research Per Spend Plan Facility & Equipment Repairs $1,200 NMFS, NOS, NWS $328k for NOS, $344 to NMFS, $528 to NWS NWS funds include $325k for repair and replacement of weather equipment in Caribbean Nations Habitat Restoration $2,900 NMFS Post storm assessments and restoration per the President’s Supplemental Request Oyster Bed Restoration, Reseeding, Rehab $9,000 Per Congressional Direction to provide $4,321 to Alabama, $1,700 to Florida, $1,545 to Mississippi, $1,421 to Louisiana Sub-Total OR&F $16,900 PAC Air Force Radiometer Data Processing $300k OAR Stepped Frequency Radiometer evaluation and data processing at OAR/HRD, Equipment funded in Air Force Budget GIV Upgrades $3,500k NMAO G-IV Upgrades as proposed in President’s Supplemental Request Sub-Total $3,800k Total $20,700

Opportunities for Improvement Super-ensembles can produce superior forecast guidance FSU Super-ensemble GFS GFDL Super-ensembles can produce superior forecast guidance. FSU Super-ensemble had the best performance in 2004. This makes it the model to beat in 2005. It has been around since 1999. (refer to next slide)

2004 Track Guidance (Gen J we made this into a build like you asked)

Opportunities for Improvement Intensity forecasts Charley is the example – fast intensification just before landfall Charley went from a category 2 to a 4 in a few hours. This storm is one of our worst nightmares, a rapidly intensify storm right before landfall. Intensity improvement remains a high priority. Note: “VADM has asked the SAB to review NOAA’s hurricane intensity research, which will include transitioning research results to operations. Soliciting ideas from the SAB on what the Review Panel should look at, how it might conduct such a review, or the qualifications of reviewers will help NOAA develop a charge to the review panel.” Quote from Mike Uhart

NHC Official Intensity Error Trend – Atlantic Basin Title: Intensity or just leave what is one the slide Trend is generally flat, we have see very little improvement over the years

Opportunities for Improvement Communicating Uncertainty “Tampa, Tampa, Tampa” 48-hour track error was 94 miles Scope, pace, historical/forecasts, uncertainty of track, warnings/watches, inland/coasts (General J, you asked if this was the best track error in history and it is NOT.) “Tampa, Tampa, Tampa” Hurricane Charley did not end up there. Too much emphasis was put on the exact forecast track of the storm (the dotted line) instead of the area of uncertainty. We will be taking a look at the TPC/NHC track chart during the off season at ways to modify it. Need to better communicate the inland hurricane force winds. Find ways to heighten message to our inland citizens. More than a coastal event.

Hurricane Charley Title: Hurricane Charley (UAV loiter ?) Some focused on the track line rather than the cone of uncertainty Here’s Charley about 24 hours before landfall A slight change in the direction of motion on Charley was the difference between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Great Team-NOAA Performance! Wrap-Up Great Team-NOAA Performance!

NOAA Coordination & Views NOAA-wide effort to improve

Desired Outcomes Discuss Opportunities for Improvement Improving Intensity Forecasts Communicating Uncertainty Multi-model Ensembles

Backup

2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STATISTICS NAME DATES MIN. PRESS (MB) MAX. WINDS (MPH) DIRECT DEATHS (U.S. & CARIBBEAN) U.S. ESTIMATED DAMAGE ($ million) H ALEX 31 JUL - 6 AUG 957 120 1 5 TS BONNIE 3 - 13 AUG 1001 65 3 minor H CHARLEY 9 - 14 AUG 941 150 15 15000 H DANIELLE 13 - 21 AUG 964 110 TS EARL 13 - 16 AUG 1005 45 H FRANCES 25 AUG - 8 SEP 935 145 8 8900 H GASTON 27 AUG - 1 SEP 985 75 130 TS HERMINE 27 - 31 AUG 1002 60 H IVAN 2 - 24 SEP 910 165 92 14200 H JEANNE 13 - 28 SEP 950 3000+ 6900 H KARL 16 - 24 SEP 938 H LISA 19 SEP - 3 OCT 987 TS MATTHEW 8 - 10 OCT 997 STS NICOLE 10 - 11 OCT 988 50 TS OTTO 29 NOV - 3 DEC 995 NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook issued in May called for 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes. Final season tally: Fifteen named tropical or subtropical storms with 6 major hurricanes including three Category 4’s and one Category 5. $45B in damages and 60 direct deaths in the U.S. Ivan’s minimum central pressure of 910 mb is tied for sixth lowest known pressure in an Atlantic hurricane