1 Labour market changes: trends and prospects Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin Analyst OECD/CERI Centre for Educational Research and Innovation How might the changing labour market transform higher education? CERI expert meeting, Paris, February 2007

2 Outline Changes and diversity in the structure of OECD economies and labour markets Drivers of change for discussion –Ageing –Technology –Globalisation

3 Common trends, but diverse economies and labour markets

4 GDP per capita US dollars, current prices and PPPs, 2004

5 Value added by broad sector, 1980

6 Value added by broad sector, 2003

7 Share of employment by broad sector, 1980

8 Share of employment by broad sector, 2002

9 Enterprises with less than 20 employees: employment and value added As a percentage of total employment or value added in manufacturing, 2002

10 Standardised unemployment rates: average As a percentage of civilian labour force

11 Long-term unemployment Persons unemployed for 12 months or more as a percentage of total unemployed, 2004

12 Diversity within and across economies Institutions matter Employment systems –Recruitment practices –Autonomy within a job –Role of formal qualifications –Training, recognition of former experience, portability of skills –Importance of innovation (R&D) –Depends on product, business strategy etc.

13 Some drivers of change Ageing Technology Globalisation

14 Ratio of the population aged 65+ to the labour force (%)

15 Some consequences of ageing Further changes in the structure of the economy Possible shortages in some sectors –Teachers, health sectors, scientists, etc.? –Migration? –New work patterns for older workers? For women? Changes in consumption behaviours

16 Technology Further development of IT and other technologies –Automation of an increasing number of tasks: end of work? –New synergies: more demand for highly skilled workforce? Greater variety of consumer demands and products & shorter product life cycles –Personalisation of products and consumption –Low productivity growth puzzle: inadequate measures of productivity or new model of production (imagination vs automation)? Driver of globalisation

17 Globalisation Positive impact on economies overall, but loss of jobs and market shares in some sectors –Further reach of outsourcing: will highly qualified jobs be threatened too? –Change in the structure of OECD economies? –Impact on unemployment, on wage distribution, on skill level of available occupations –Lifelong learning becomes more crucial Role of Multi-National Entreprises Financial capitalism and new business model/employment relationship

18 Questions Will new business models become prevalent in higher education too? What kind of skills will the (tertiary educated) worker of the future need in order to thrive in the workplace and the labour market? Will the economy (really) need more tertiary educated people? What will happen to those with less formal education?

19 Thank you

20 Over-qualification rates in some OECD countries, Sources: European countries: European Community Labour Force Survey (data provided by Eurostat); United States: Current Population Survey March Supplement; Canada: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics; Australia: Household, Income and Labour Dynamics.