INTO Lecture Dr Frank O’Donnell RUSSIA FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY PERSPECTIVES AND APPROACHES

STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION:  Russian Worldviews  Outlook: Politics, Economics, Military  Approaches toward Europe  Approaches toward Central Asia  Approaches toward China  Conclusion INTRODUCTION Russian “Buk” SAM system, suspected of shooting down MH17 passenger airplane, July 2014

LEARNING OUTCOMES Kremlin, Moscow Understand Russian worldviews and how this generates foreign and defence policy behaviour Analyse political, economic and military challenges facing Russia and its current responses Evaluate Russia’s future prospects and current Western policies toward Russia

 Russia is a Great Power  Desire to be seen as sitting at same top table as US, involved in same global issues as US.  “Regards the US as the geopolitical status benchmark against which it judges its own success or failure” (Chatham House report, 2015)  Non-intervention in other state crises  Protector of Russian citizens wherever they may be located  Preference for a multipolar world  Dissatisfaction with current Russian borders  2014 poll: 58% of Russia’s citizens think its borders should expand RUSSIAN WORLDVIEWS: I

Finally:  Deep-seated fear of NATO and its present and future intentions RUSSIAN WORLDVIEWS: II (Freedman, 1985)

 POLITICS  No real experience of democracy  Brief Yeltsin democratic period of 1990s perceived as chaos, Western penetration, loss of international status  Gradual return to dictatorship under Putin, 2000-present  ECONOMICS  7 th largest global economy, pop. 142m  Dependent on large oil and gas reserves  Oil and gas income accounted for 50% of federal budget in 2013  Declining population  Russian government predicts working-age population could decline by 30% from OUTLOOK: POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

 4 th largest global defence budget  4 th largest military by headcount (771,000 est. 2015)  Still a first-rank military in terms of technology  2010 Russia military doctrine emphasises risk from NATO, role of nuclear weapons in Russian defence  Clear interest in hybrid warfare, cyber warfare  However:  “systemic corruption” (US Congressional Research Service, 2015) OUTLOOK: MILITARY RS-24 nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)

 Keep NATO and EU divided  Misuse of NATO-Russia council  Energy diplomacy with individual EU states  Achieve dominance, if not control, over post-Soviet states  Resist pro-democratic revolutions, which Moscow sees as Western plots  Prevent further NATO and EU expansion eastward  Georgia war, 2008  Ukraine invasion, 2014-present APPROACHES TOWARD EUROPE Map of Georgia following 2008 war with Russia, with Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions under effective Russian control

 Achieve Russian dominance, if not control, over Central Asian states  Regional institutions to manage this:  Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)  Collective Security Treat Organisation (CSTO)  Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) APPROACHES TOWARD CENTRAL ASIA

APPROACHES TOWARD CHINA  Avoid economic dependence on China  Avoid being eclipsed by China as great power  Demographic challenge, especially in Russian Far East:  Potential de facto loss of territory to China  6.3m total Russian population in Far East  Border official: 1.5m Chinese illegally immigrated to Far East from Jan 2013-June 2014

 1 st Approach: Containment but limited cooperation where possible  Kissinger, “Détente” approach,  Obama administration,  2 nd Approach: Rollback and aggressive pressure  Reagan administration,  Obama administration, present WESTERN APPROACHES TOWARD RUSSIA

LEARNING OUTCOMES Kremlin, Moscow Understand Russian worldviews and how this generates foreign and defence policy behaviour Analyse political, economic and military challenges facing Russia and its current responses Evaluate Russia’s future prospects and current Western policies toward Russia

QUESTIONS? Slides and reference texts available at: tinyurl.com/intoslides