Beginner Version, sort of

Why Read Politics?  There is always a disad available  Rewards effort—constant updating, need for close reading  Ability to access impacts that can outweigh (timeframe, probability, magnitude) the case  Larnin’—helps you keep up on current events

Types of Politics Disads  Obama Agenda Good  Obama Agenda Bad  Elections

Top Level Considerations  Politics and fiat  Public and/versus congressional perception  Perception and tradeoff between issues  Spin—who controls perception of the plan, and thus shapes public/congressional reaction  Media  Opposition party  White House  Members of president’s party

Credit & Blame  Does “normal means” require congressional involvement  Obama tends to get credit/blame  Visibility  Psychological needs of electorate (leadership)  Overstating of importance in policymaking  Perceptual unitary nature of presidency versus other branches  People often use alternate agents (courts, congress, states, agencies) to avoid a lot of politics links  The KEY QUESTION is to whom hurt/benefitting interest groups will attribute

Internal Link: Cooperation/Bipart/Olive Branch  Thesis: gestures that appeal to the other party increase the probability that other legislation will pass  Bipart: Plan fosters cooperation, that spills over to other issues  Olive Branch: Plan is a sop to the GOP, invites horse-trading  Logrolling: Passing one policy “breaks the logjam” that prevents other policies from passing

Internal Link: Flip Flops  Thesis: Presidents are punished by the media, public, and members of the opposition party for changing positions on issues  Most “flip flop” links are describing Bush’s destruction of Kerry in the ‘04 presidential campaign—”I voted for the war funding before I voted against it”  Is not a particularly strong internal link argument.

Internal Link: Political Capital  Gold standard of politics internals—most other internal links can be explained/described in terms of political capital  Describes the president’s overall ability to woo congress, twist arms, offer favors, and issue threats to get particular agenda items  Controversial issues to consider  Is it limited?  Does it cross over between issues?  Is it replenishable?

Internal Link: Public Popularity  Thesis: Presidents with high poll numbers are more likely to get their way in dealing with congress—representatives are afraid to challenge popular presidents  Is backed up by a ton of social science-y research (Edwards & Edwards, etc.)  Argument applies to both the policy and the president  Interest groups can shape public reaction to a policy

Internal Link: Winning/Losing  Thesis #1—Winners Win: Presidents that push through contentious policies develop reputations as being successful (winners), increasing the reluctance of congress to challenge them in the future  Recent example: Health insurance reform  Thesis was initially proposed by Norman Ornstein of AEI  Argument also works in reverse—Presidents who lose have a more difficult time forcing Congress into line in the future

Internal Link: Legislative Blocks  Thesis: Groups of like-minded lawmakers influence policy and react to plan action  Most basic level  Democrats (unity)  Republicans (cooperation)  Other groups  Dem moderates  Blue Dogs  New Democrats  GOP moderates

Internal Link: Specific Legislators  Thesis: Plans either anger or please influential lawmakers, decreasing or increasing the probability that they will cooperate with the President in the future  Influential lawmakers include  Reid and Boehner (Senate & House leaders, respectively)  McConnell (GOP leader in Senate)  Pelosi (Dem leader in House)  McCain (GOP Senator)  Brown, Collins, Snowe (GOP Senators, centrists)

Internal Link Genre: Lobby Backlash  Thesis: organized interest groups react to plans to impact the political process by either rewarding or punishing politicians through the use of campaign funding, direct advertising, and (proly) bribes  Can be VERY useful link arguments, especially because media/academics like to talk about their relative power  Will be important on this topic because public interest/reaction to most space policies will likely be minimal

Answering Politics  Uniqueness  Links—takeouts and turns  Internal links  Impacts—takeouts and turns