Challenge the future Delft University of Technology OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Determinants of House Prices in Romania how to measure.

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Challenge the future Delft University of Technology OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Determinants of House Prices in Romania how to measure House Prices in a new EU state Paul de Vries, Delft University of Technology & Robbert Faber, Cadastre International ERES Conference 2009 Stockholm June 2009 Buzău

2 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Outline Romania: very short history EU criteria: an effective monitoring system for the land and real estate markets Real Estate Market Information System (REMIS) observed data Results estimated data house price model first results

3 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Very short history After 1990 private properties rights were re- instated to their pre-1940 situation. 2007: member of the EU GDP growth 2008 in real terms 7.1%, one of the highest rates in Europe Ceausescu's Palace

4 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Intermezzo: Huge investments May 2008 May 2009 Underground Universitatii

5 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Housing market Transition to a market economy, the housing stock would be transferred to private ownership. These new registrations require a well-functioning cadastral system. Romania: over eight million housing units Homeownership exceeds 95%, which is higher than the 60% average in many West European countries. House Prices catching up rapidly, twice West European countries Significant statistical relationship between House Prices and its fundamentals

6 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Data Quality Huge lag of information about quality of the individual properties, including the property rights 37m 2, 2.7 rooms 72% apartments 2/3 no pipe water Street view in Pilot region Buzău

7 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Valuation (REMIS project) By law, the Cadastre must provide a well- functioning cadastral system, including a set of databases, procedures and guidelines that enables a valuation process on the Romanian real estate market. For this purpose a software has been developed called REMIS (Real Estate Monitoring Information System).

8 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment REMIS structure

9 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment REMIS Valuation Process Observed House Quality House Price Estimated House Price Sold or On-the-Market All properties Visiting a Estate Agent Hedonic regression -‘some’ characteristics -real House Price -Pilot region Buzău

10 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Observed data: gaps in Price Level Transaction Price < Appraisal value < Offer Price (de la agentie) < (de la banci) < (din oferte)

11 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Observed data: Measuring Mean Floor space category 200m 2 and more = 7,516 m 2

12 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Observed data: Conclusion In potential, good data However, Data is incomplete Consistency problems Future Data consistency Data quality control Bucharest

13 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Hedonic regression Model based on: -Data source -House Type -Neighbourhood -Floor space -Number of Rooms -Year of Construction

14 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Results I

15 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Results I

16 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Conclusion Model: weak house price model today results show the potentials of REMIS Future Data consistency Data quality control Valuation all properties in Buzău Spread out over Romania Bucharest

17 Real Estate Market Information System for Romania | 17 OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment Finish Economic Growth