Synthesis of Arctic System Science Joint SASS-SNACS Session Overview of SASS Projects Synthesis of Arctic System Science 27 March 2006

Synopsis of Program from the AO: This solicitation is for research that synthesizes our understanding of the arctic system. The arctic system is a set of interconnected and interacting physical, biological, and human components and processes in the northern region… Research efforts supported will build on and integrate the wealth of existing data and knowledge to advance our understanding of the behavior of the arctic system… and to understand the role it plays in the global system and society. Synthesis of Arctic System Science

 Incorporate elements from the existing arctic data, information, and models  Focus on interdisciplinary, cross-cutting questions that will lead to a better understanding of how the system components function and interact  Demonstrate clear relevance to the entire arctic system  Include specific plans for deposition of data and products… Synthesis of Arctic System Science AO called for projects that met the following criteria:

 A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System  Sunlight and the Arctic Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean System  Synthesis of Modes of Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Covariability in the Arctic System from Multivariate Century-Scale Observations  Arctic Surface Air Temperatures for the Past 100 Years: Analysis and Reconstruction of an Integrated Data Set for Arctic System Science  Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Using Atmospheric Inversion and Process-Based Approaches  Greening of the Arctic - Synthesis and Models to Examine the Effects of Climate, Sea-Ice, and Terrain on Circumpolar Vegetation Change  A Synthesis of Rapid Meltwater and Ice Discharge Changes: Large Forcings from the Ice with Impacts on Global Sea Level and North Atlantic Freshwater Budgets  Humans and Hydrology at High Latitudes  Heterogeneity and Resilience of Human-Rangifer Systems: A Circumpolar Social-Ecological Synthesis Nine Funded Projects Synthesis of Arctic System Science

Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Mark C. Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Michael Steele Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA

Objective: Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating, yet simplifying viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget Science Questions: What are the interplays between heat transports from lower latitudes, extreme seasonality in radiative forcing and heat exchanges between atmospheric and subsurface reservoirs that shape the observed state of the Arctic’s coupled atmosphere-land-ice-ocean system? How are recent changes and projected future states of the Arctic system reflected in components of the heat budget, and can we separate forcing from response? What are the major uncertainties that hamper our ability to achieve a system-level understanding?

Synthesis of Modes of Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Covariability in the Arctic System from Multivariate Century-Scale Observations Martin Miles Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center, Boulder, CO Mark Serreze National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO James Overland Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA

Overall objective Quantitatively synthesize modes of (co)variability – and changes in these modes – in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic ocean–ice– atmosphere system in the past one to two centuries Specific objectives: 1)Assemble, update and systematize the longest continuous time series of oceanographic and meteorological measurements, sea ice observations and climate indices 2)Quantitatively characterize the ocean–ice–atmosphere system 3)Quantitatively document changes in modes of variability and covariability 4)Synthesize our results together with other observational and modelling analyses, to develop improved understanding of the arctic ocean–ice– atmosphere system and interactions with the subpolar North Atlantic

Collaborative Research: Arctic Surface Air Temperatures (SAT): Analysis and Reconstruction of Integrated Data Sets for Arctic System Science PIs: Ignatius G. Rigor, Axel Schweiger, & Harry Stern Polar Science Center, APL/UW Collaborators: Jeff Key, NOAA/NESDIS Joey Comiso, NASA/GSFC Study of Arctic System Science (SASS) Investigator Meeting, March 26-27, 2006

The Plan: 1)Reconcile the differences between the various SAT data sets obtained from in situ observations, reanalysis, and satellites. 2)Produce an objectively analyzed, gridded field of SAT observations with error variances established through careful cross-validation, resulting in a “best estimate” field of SAT that minimizes the errors and biases in the original input data sets. 3)Produce a reconstructed gridded field of SAT from 1901 to present, using long-term records from “super-stations” and EOF reconstruction techniques. 4)Study interdecadal variations in SAT and sea ice extent (SIE).

Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Using Atmospheric Inversion and Process-Based Approaches A. David McGuire Institute of Arctic Biology - University of Alaska Fairbanks Jerry Melillo Bruce Peterson David Kicklighter Marine Biological Laboratory James McClelland University of Texas Qianlain Zhuang Purdue University Mick Follows Ronald Prinn Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Tasks 1. Conduct model-data fusion studies with process-based models of various components of high latitude terrestrial C dynamics including a. Terrestrial CO 2 (McGuire lead) and CH 4 exchange (Zhuang lead), and b. Transfer of C from high latitude terrestrial ecosystems to the mouth of rivers in the Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin (Melillo/Peterson/McClelland/Kicklighter lead) 2. Conduct model-data fusion studies with a process-based model of marine CO 2 exchange in oceans adjacent to the high latitude terrestrial regions (Follows lead) 3. Improve atmospheric inversions of CO 2 and CH 4 across high latitude regions through better incorporation of data and process-understanding on CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics (Prinn lead). 4. Project synthesis (All).

1)Explore the sea- ice/terrain/vegetation linkages by synthesizing a group of long- term and recently available circumpolar databases 2)Examine how the vegetation of the circumpolar Arctic is responding to recent climate change 3)Use this information to help predict future response of arctic vegetation GOALS:

Researchers: Ice flow/change: Mark Fahnestock, UNH, Ice flow and surface melt, RS of large ice sheets Martin Truffer, UAF, Ice flow (field and modeling) - outlet glaciers Ian Joughin, APL/UW, Ice flow - RS of large ice sheets and modeling Byron Parizek, PSU, Ice flow modeling of large ice sheets Melt/change: Richard Alley, PSU, ice sheets and climate Sarah Das, WHOI, ice core records of melt, RS of melt Jason Box, BPRC/OSU, Polar meteorology/met stations/Atm modeling David Rausch, PSU, ice sheet/climate connections, tools for data analysis (Overlaps and connections between these two groups omitted for simplicity) Collaborative Research: A synthesis of rapid meltwater and ice discharge changes: large forcings from the ice with impacts on global sea level and North Atlantic freshwater budgets

Objectives: 1)an estimate of the large temporal variations in fresh water output from land-based ice in Greenland 2) an improved understanding of the variability of the ice discharge flux from the Greenland Ice Sheet 3) use 1 and 2 to investigate to what extent ice discharge variability from Greenland outlet glaciers is attributable to short term climate variability (e.g., through enhanced basal lubrication from surface melt)

Humans and Hydrology at High Latitudes (H 3 L) Richard B. Lammers Water Systems Analysis Group, UNH Dan WhiteUniversity of Alaska, Fairbanks Lawrence C. HamiltonDepartment of Sociology, UNH Lilian AlessaUniversity of Alaska, Anchorage Alexander I. ShiklomanovWater Systems Analysis Group, UNH Charles J. Vorosmarty Water Systems Analysis Group, UNH Rasmus O. Rasmussen University of Roskilde, Denmark Igor A. ShiklomanovDirector, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia Cynthia M. DuncanUniversity of New Hampshire Sponsored by NSF - Synthesis of Arctic System Science - OPP

GOAL 1 Retrospective: To analyze the major forces and trajectories shaping the pan-arctic water system and to understand their interactions with humans. GOAL 2 Contemporary: To advance our knowledge of relationships linking broad scales of change to local societal impacts. GOAL 3 Future: To forecast the range of potential future statistics of the pan-arctic hydrosphere, societal impacts, and response at multiple scales.

Goals: –Improve understanding of the relative resilience and adaptability of regional Human-Rangifer Systems to the forces for global change –Derive generalized propositions about their functional properties as aspects of the Arctic System.

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