LWG briefing to NESDIS/OSD and NWS/OST Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA Mike Hardesty, NOAA/OAR/ESRL Co-chairs, US Working Group on Space-Based Lidar Winds 1

Background  Destin, February 2010: Plans to propose ISS-based wind lidar mission contingent on mission and instrument studies, e.g. at the Goddard Integrated Design Center; total costs estimated at $240K  George Komar (ESTO) willing to put down $60K if other interested parties within NASA, US Air Force and NOAA would do likewise  Kirtland AFB, April 2010  Wayman Baker, Dave Emmitt briefed Air Force on plans; commitment to co-fund IDC studies at the level of $60K subsequently obtained  Washington DC, June 2010  Ramesh Kakar (Weather Focus Lead for NASA’s Earth Science Division) commitment to contribute $60K  Washington DC, July 2010  Briefing to NESDIS/OSD (was originally planned for May, but had to be rescheduled). 2

LWG Briefing to NOAA  Rescheduled briefing took place July 22 in Silver Spring  From NESDIS/OSD: John Pereira, Rich Fulton, Steve Mango  From NWS/OST: J.C. Duh, Mike Johnson, Bill Sjoberg  Briefers: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Mike Hardesty (phone) 3

4  Objective of this briefing  Current Upper Air Mass and Wind Data Coverage; the need for Wind Lidar Observations  Forecast Impact Results with Airborne DWL Data  Need for Improved Accuracy of Transport Estimates for Climate Applications  Missions  ESA’s ADM/Aeolus; NOAA role in ADM  NASA’s Wind Lidar plans  ISS opportunity  The Lidar Working Group  Concluding Remarks Briefing Outline

Briefing Objectives  Update on activities of the Working Group on Space-Based Lidar Winds  Provide current status of global wind measurement activities in Europe and the US  Introduce opportunity to advance global wind measurement demonstration through NASA Venture Class proposal  Current wind mission categorized as a Tier 3 mission, launch scheduled for (15 year winds gap after ADM)  NASA Venture Class offers opportunity for International Space Station winds mission within next 6 – 8 years  Cost of Venture Class design and feasibility study = $240K, with $120K to be provided by NASA and $60K to be provided by the Air Force  A NOAA contribution of $60K would ensure that this effort goes forward 5

6 Current Upper Air Mass & Wind Data Coverage Vertically resolved Mass Observations Vertically resolved Wind Observations

7 Mean (29 cases) 96 h 500 hPa height forecast error difference (Lidar Exper minus Control Exper) for November 2003 with actual airborne DWL data. The green shading means a reduction in the error with the Lidar data compared to the Control. The forecast impact test was performed with the ECMWF global model.  DWL measurements reduced the 72-hour forecast error by ~3.5%  This amount is ~10% of that realized at the oper. NWP centers worldwide in the past 10 years from all the improvements in modelling, observing systems, and computing power  Total information content of the lidar winds was 3 times higher than for dropsondes Forecast Impact Using Actual Aircraft Lidar Winds in ECMWF Global Model (Weissmann and Cardinali, 2007) Green denotes a positive impact

8 ADM-Aeolus Doppler Wind Lidar Cross-track HLOS winds  HLOS (z) = 2-3 m/s Profiles 0–30 km Once every 200 km length Aerosol and molecular measurement channel Dawn-dusk polar-orbiter Launch date June 2011 (now late 2012, LPR) (Stoffelen et al., BAMS, 2005) Slide from A. Stoffelen

9  ADM provides an opportunity to gain experience with the first-ever direct wind measurements from space  ADM wind data are expected be of high quality and could potentially improve the NCEP operational model forecasts, especially in the tropics  ESA is investing more than $400M in ADM and providing the data to the NOAA (and other WMO members) at no cost  ADM serves as a learning experience for the processing and assimilation of data from the subsequent U.S. Decadal Survey Wind Lidar mission Why should NOAA care (about ADM) ?

Prospects for operational follow-on to ADM ADM/Aeolus demo mission will end in 2014/15 (EUMETSAT was considering DWL for post-EPS; this is currently at the top of the list of unfunded requirements; funding tied up by continuity missions) NPOESS IPO sponsored Goddard IDL study in 2007 regarding potential adaptation of NASA Decadal Survey GWOS concept for next-generation NPOESS 2030+? => In the best case there is a likely temporal gap in space-based wind profiling of 15+ years 10

Mission opportunity  The International Space Station (ISS) provides a potential NASA Venture Class opportunity to get a slimmed down GWOS/NWOS-based US pre-operational demonstration wind lidar in orbit  Low altitude, low inclination orbit, suitable for active sensing of tropics and mid-latitude region  Strong push from NASA and Air Force to explore this option  Concept studies needed to verify feasibility and identify potential tall poles  Instrument Design Laboratory$100K  Mission Design Laboratory$100K  Mission Definition Team support $40K  Air Force, NASA ESTO, and NASA HQ have agreed to contribute $60K each, or $180K of the $240K needed  If NESDIS/OSD can contribute the final $60K we can move ahead with the ISS feasibility study 11

12 Summary  Direct measurements of vertical profiles of the horizontal winds away from the major developed regions (covered by radiosondes) are at the top of the priority list for the NWP community  Wind Lidar technology is ready to be demonstrated in space  ADM scheduled to launch in late 2012  No follow-on planned (“first measurement below the line” for post- EPS)  No current US plans for deployments in space this side of 2030  Lidar Working Group provides a national forum to develop and coordinate various aspects of wind lidar technology, data impact experiments, measurement campaigns, international outreach (and advocacy)  ISS/ NASA EV provides a unique opportunity for an early US demonstration mission  Study funds requested from NESDIS/OSD as the final piece in a cost-sharing partnership with NASA and the Air Force

Summary of briefing  Briefing received positively  NWS/OST concurred with our assessment that the space-based GOS is severely out of balance  NESDIS/OSD subsequently agreed to sponsor IDC study at the $60K level  NESDIS/OSD also agreed to continue to fund LWG (one meeting per year)  Action on LPR and MH: Brief NASA HQ and seek NASA funding for the other meeting 13