The Primary System

Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: Convention System: Mixed System: Primary System: 1972-???

McGovern Fraser Commission: Changes to Democratic Party Rules Anti-discrimination provisions Anti-discrimination provisions Explicit party rules and open party meetings Explicit party rules and open party meetings Bans the UNIT RULE Bans the UNIT RULE –Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a winner-take-all fashion Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection process Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection process Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection process Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection process Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholders Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholders

Number of states holding primary elections

Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

Some delegates still chosen by other means Caucus: Caucus: –A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come and express their opinions State convention: State convention: –Local party groups select delegates to state party convention. State convention delegates select delegates to national nominating convention.

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media –(And hence the importance of early primaries!)

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!) Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!)

A representative beginning? From the 2000 Census Iowa New Hampshire National average Population2,929,324 (30 th ) 1,235,786 (41 st ) 281,421,906 % White 93.9%96%75.1% Median income $39,469$49,467$41,994 % Farm employmt 4.4%.9%1.9%

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!) Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!) Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of national party conventions

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries Increase in importance of early primaries Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of state party leaders Decreases importance of state party leaders Party activists give way to candidate activists Party activists give way to candidate activists

Changes After 1968 McGovern-Fraser reforms McGovern-Fraser reforms FECA FECA

Federal Election Campaign Act Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections –All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year Bans large donations by individuals Bans large donations by individuals –Individuals can only give $2000 to a primary candidate

Consequences of Party Reform & FECA Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries Increase in importance of early primaries Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of state party leaders Decreases importance of state party leaders Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise big money in small contributions!) Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise big money in small contributions!)

A Couple of Problems? Ideological primary voters? Ideological primary voters? Candidates mobilize factions? Candidates mobilize factions?

Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: Convention System: Mixed System: Primary System: ? Frontloaded primary system 1982-present

Hunt Commission, 1982 Superdelegates Superdelegates Frontloading Frontloading

Date Jan wk1 IA, WY Jan wk2 NH, Jan wk3 MI, NV Jan wk4 SC, FL AK, HI Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT LA Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WI IA Feb wk3 NH Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VT CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

The Invisible Primary Role for elites Role for elites Role of money Role of money Role of the press Role of the press Role for voters Role for voters Momentum in Invisible Primary, not necessarily primaries themselves Momentum in Invisible Primary, not necessarily primaries themselves

Republican nomination 2000 Bush’s money Bush’s money –April 1999: $6 million –July 1999: $36 million –December 1999: $70 million Closest competitor: McCain Closest competitor: McCain –July 1999: $6 million –December 1999: $15 million

& Endorsements… & Endorsements… Bush: Bush: –Michigan Gov. John Engler (R) –Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating –Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) –Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R –Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci –Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R) –Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) –Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R) –R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond –La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R) –Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R) –Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R) –Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II –N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki –Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R) –Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R) –Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson –Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R) –Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) –Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R) –Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R) –Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) –Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) –Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) –Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R) –W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood –N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman Alexander Alexander –Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) –Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) –Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Forbes Forbes –NM Governor Gary Johnson Hatch Hatch –UT Gov. Mike Levitt Quayle Quayle –Miss. Gov. Fordice