Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings June 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, Trinidad Tsunami Warning Center Operations: Caribbean Simulations.

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Presentation transcript:

Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings June 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, Trinidad Tsunami Warning Center Operations: Caribbean Simulations Dr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA

What is a tsunami simulation? A tsunami simulation is the creation of an artificial tsunami based upon knowledge of the physics of how tsunamis are generated and how they behave converted into mathematical formulae that can be programmed and run on a computer. A particular simulation requires: A particular tsunami sourceA particular tsunami source Appropriately gridded bathymetric dataAppropriately gridded bathymetric data Appropriately gridded coastal topographic dataAppropriately gridded coastal topographic data Tidal componentsTidal components

Why do we need tsunami simulations? 1.Hazard Assessment Historical data are too limited.Historical data are too limited. Given what is known about potential tsunami sources and their recurrrence rates, what is the likelihood of being impacted by a tsunami of a particular size and effect?Given what is known about potential tsunami sources and their recurrrence rates, what is the likelihood of being impacted by a tsunami of a particular size and effect? 2.Tsunami Forecasting Accurate forecasting of tsunami impacts during a tsunami event.Accurate forecasting of tsunami impacts during a tsunami event. 3.Tsunami Scenarios Education about what would happen for any particular tsunami situationEducation about what would happen for any particular tsunami situation

Why can be learned from tsunami simulations? 1.How long after generation will the tsunami arrive? 2.When will be the biggest wave? 3.How long will the hazard last? 4.How many places will be affected by the tsunami? 5.Which places will be affected most? 6.What areas will be inundated and how deep? 7.What currents will be experienced?

SIFT FORECAST MODEL: SOURCES

17 November 2003: SIFT Match of Waveforms of Generation-Propagation Model and Tsunameter

Real Time Detection of November 17, 2003 Tsunami Tsunami Seismic

Thank You