Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 September 2009 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

North America: Moderate to heavy rain fell across eastern Canada and the eastern US. Mexico and Central America: Heavy precipitation fell along the eastern Mexican coast. Eurasia: Typhoon Ketsana brought heavy rain to the Philippines and Vietnam. Highlights

ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter During the last 4-weeks (30 Aug - 26 Sep 2009), equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern Pacific. For more information go to:

MJO Current Status The MJO index has generally maintained its amplitude during the past week but has shown no eastward movement in the last several days.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: The GEFS forecasts of the MJO index indicate a weakening MJO signal with no eastward propagation during the next two weeks.

Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over southwest US. During the last 90 days above average rainfall has occurred in west Africa. During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred over parts of Indonesia (Borneo and Java). Above average rainfall has occurred in the Philippines; due in part to tropical cyclone activity.

Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. 200-hPa Wind & Omega Anomalies - Recent 7 days A C A A C C During September, enhanced 200-hPa cyclonic circulations were centered over the south central US, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Middle East. Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the eastern US, the Mediterranean Sea, Indochina, and the Philippines (lower panel blue ovals).

Northern Hemisphere Circulation 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. During the 7-day period (21-27 September 2009) above-average temperatures were observed over Canada, the eastern US, eastern Europe, and India. Below normal temperatures were observed over the central US (not shown), and northern Africa.

North America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, rainfall was above average in the Alaskan panhandle and the interior southeast US and near average in Alaska, western Canada, eastern Canada, and the Great Lakes. Dry weather prevailed in the Canadian prairies and western US.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, precipitation was below average in western Alaska and above normal in the Alaskan panhandle and in the interior southeast U.S.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, rainfall was above average in the Alaskan panhandle, New Mexico, eastern Texas and the interior southeast. Precipitation was below average in eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the northeast US.

30 day rainfall totals are above average in the south central US and near average in the northwest and Florida peninsula. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the September, temperatures were well above average in the Canadian prairies and near to above average across southeast Canada. Low temperatures reached the single digits (degrees C) while some areas dropped below freezing. More recently a season ending freeze occurred throughout most of the Canadian prairies (not shown). AnomalyExtreme Minimum

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the September temperature were below average in the central and southern US plains and above average across most of the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures were below 40 degrees F in the high plains, Rockies, and New England. More recently minimum temperatures dropped below 40 degrees F in the northern plains. In northeast Mexico temperature were below average with low temperatures in the teens. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts For Days 1-7 (29 Sep – 5 Oct 2009) above average rainfall is forecast for the northern plains, western corn belt, Arkansas, and Texas, and below average rainfall is forecast for the southern Atlantic coast states. Forecasts from 30 Sep 2009 – Days 1-7

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 (6-12 Oct 2009) above average rainfall is predicted for the Alaskan panhandle and from eastern Texas to the southern Appalachians. Forecasts from 30 Sep 2009 – Week 2

Forecast Verification North America Forecast from 16 Sep 2009 Valid Sep 2009 Forecast from 23 Sep 2009 Valid Sep 2009 Observed Valid Sep 2009 NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, precipitation was above average in eastern Mexico and near average in Central America. Dry weather prevailed in northwest Mexico.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was below average in northwest Mexico and Panama and above average in eastern Mexico.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in central and eastern Mexico and below average in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Panama, and Costa Rica.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are near average in central and eastern Mexico and below average in southern Mexico and Central America.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 1-7 (29 Sep – 5 Oct 2009), above average precipitation is predicted for northwest Mexico, below average precipitation for the Yucatan peninsula, and near average precipitation for Central America. Forecasts from 30 Sep 2009 – Week 1

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 (6-12 Oct 2009), above average precipitation is predicted in eastern Mexico and below average precipitation is predicted in western Mexico and Panama. Forecasts from 30 Sep 2009 – Week 2

Forecast Verification Central America NOT AVAILABLE Forecast from 16 Sep 2009 Valid Sep 2009 Forecast from 23 Sep 2009 Valid Sep 2009 Observed Valid Sep 2009 NOT AVAILABLE

Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, precipitation was above average in northwest Africa, southern India, Indochina, and the northern Philippines. Typhoon Ketsana contributed to heavy rainfall in Indochina and the Philippines. Dry weather prevailed in Europe, northern India and Indonesia.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in northwest Africa, areas near the Mediterranean Sea, southern India, and the Philippines, while precipitation was below average in north and central Europe, northern India, and Borneo.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in northwest Africa, Vietnam, and the Philippines, while precipitation was below average in most of Europe, western Russia, southeast China, and Borneo.

30 day rainfall totals are below average in central Europe, slightly below average in eastern Ukraine and near average in western Siberia. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During September temperatures were above average in Europe with lows in the upper single digits (degrees C) to low teens. In northwest Africa temperatures were below average. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During September temperatures were near to above average in Russia. Extreme minimum temperature was -5 to 5 degrees C in most areas.

30 day rainfall totals are below average in Gujarat, near average in south central India, below average in Manchuria, and above average in Luzon. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During September temperatures were above average in most of South Asia and near to above average in eastern Asia. Extreme minimum temperatures in the Manchuria were in the 0-5 degrees C range.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 1-7 (29 Sep – 5 Oct 2009) forecasts show above average precipitation in central India, below average precipitation in eastern China, and near average precipitation in northern Europe, Western Russia, and southeast Asia. Forecasts from 30 Sep 2009 – Week 1

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 (6-12 Oct 2009) above average precipitation is forecast in northeast India and Luzon, and below average precipitation is forecast in southern India and Vietnam. Forecasts from 30 Sep 2009 – Week 2

Forecast Verification Eurasia NOT AVAILABLE Forecast from 16 Sep 2009 Valid Sep 2009 Forecast from 23 Sep 2009 Valid Sep 2009 Observed Valid Sep 2009 NOT AVAILABLE

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