2015 APEC Typhoon Symposium (APTS) Lessons Learned from Disastrous Typhoons Manila-Philippines, 24 – 25 NOVEMBER 2015 BMKG THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES.

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Presentation transcript:

2015 APEC Typhoon Symposium (APTS) Lessons Learned from Disastrous Typhoons Manila-Philippines, 24 – 25 NOVEMBER 2015 BMKG THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NATURAL DISASTERS IN INDONESIA

OUTLINE Weather Systems in Indonesia Climatology of TC Near Indonesia The Impact of Northern/Southern Hemisphere TC Over Indonesia

Monsoon El Nino / La Nina Dipole Mode MJO, Kelvin, Rossby Cold Surge ITCZ TC WEATHER SYSTEMS IN INDONESIA TC BMKG

FREQUENCY OF RAINFALL >19 mm/day ( ) Wet SeasonDry Season Source Data; TRMM-3b42rt BMKG

Average Number of TCs Near Indonesia Update 22 Nov

Since 2007, 3 TCs were developed inside Jakarta TCWC AoR : TC Anggrek TC Durga TC Bakung

TY KOPPU and CHAMPI (11-25 Oct 2015) Average of Streamline 925 mb ( ) Climatologically mean pattern of streamline 925mb compared to cases of TY Koppu and Champi period (11-25 Oct 2015). The shaded colour show the value of low level divergence which represents the possibility of less convectivity. The presence of TCs in Northern Hemisphere could strengthen and make broader of dry area in southern part of Indonesia, but in several places in northern part could develop signifikan weather.

TC DURGA 22 – 24 April April 2008, 00 UTC 01 Nov 2010, 00 UTC TC ANGGREK 29 Sep – 04 Nov TC BAKUNG 11 – 13 December Dec 2014, 00 UTC 12 Dec 2014

Average of Streamline, Convergence, & Wind Speed In Cases of TC Durga, Anggrek, & Bakung

BMKG TROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN Track map of TC Gillian (March 2014) Wave height map at TC Gillian event (18 March 2014)

BMKG TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRRILY

The occurrences of TC in southern hemisphere, especially in southern or western part of Australia could strengthen the ITCZ which passing Indonesian Region, so that high rainfall, high wind and extreme wave heights could be happen. When TC develop in northern hemisphere near Indonesia, it could strengthen dry area in southern part of Indonesia and sometimes develop a potential of severe weather in several places in northern part. BMKG