Slide: 1EUMETSAT Programme Status and Future Activities EUMETSAT Monitoring weather and climate from space

Slide: 2EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites EUMETSAT objectives The primary objective is to establish, maintain and exploit European systems of operational meteorological satellites. A further objective is to contribute to the operational monitoring of the climate as well as the detection of global climatic changes. Furthermore, environmental issues which drive or are driven by meteorological conditions are considered.

Slide: 3EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites EUMETSAT’s mission is…. To deliver operational satellite data and products that satisfy the meteorological and climate data requirements of its Member States - 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, through decades. This is carried out taking into account the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Slide: 4EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites SLOVAK REPUBLIC AUSTRIA BELGIUM DENMARK FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY GREECE IRELAND ITALY UNITED KINGDOM TURKEYSWITZERLANDSWEDEN SPAIN PORTUGAL NORWAYNETHERLANDS LUXEMBOURG CROATIA POLAND HUNGARY LATVIA SLOVENIA 25* Member States & 5 Cooperating States Member States ROMANIA *CZECH REPUBLIC LITHUANIA BULGARIAESTONIA ICELAND Cooperating States * Pending full ratification

Slide: 5EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Satellite Application Facilities (SAFs) in Europe Cooperating StateMember State Support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting Ocean and Sea Ice Climate Monitoring Numerical Weather Prediction Land Surface Analysis Ozone and Atmospheric Chemistry Monitoring GRAS Meteorology Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management SAF Consortium Member Additional Met Service Users

Slide: 6EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Global meteorological satellite system

Slide: 7EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites EUMETSAT space segment … OCEAN SURFACE TOPOGRAPHY MISSION JASON-2 JASON-3 JASON FOLLOW-ON THIRD PARTY PROGRAMMES GMES SENTINEL-3A/B GMES SENTINEL-4 GMES SENTINEL-5 METEOSAT SECOND GENERATION METEOSAT-8 METEOSAT-9 METEOSAT-10 METEOSAT-11 METEOSAT THIRD GENERATION EUMETSAT POLAR SYSTEM METOP-A METOP-B METOP-C POST-EPS METEOSAT FIRST GENERATION METEOSAT-6 METEOSAT-7

Slide: 8EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Geostationary satellites consists of a series of four geostationary weather satellites is scheduled to operate consecutively until 2018 provides important image data on European weather on a daily basis, every 15 minutes through 12 spectral bands Meteosat-9 (in operation since 2006) provides data collection and environmental monitoring data Meteosat-8 (in operation since 2004) provides Rapid Scan Service (RSS) since May 2008 RSS delivers image data and meteorological products for the detection of rapidly developing localised convective weather systems.

Slide: 9EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites EUMETSAT’s geostationary satellite coverage Meteosat-9 (0° Longitude) Meteosat-8 (9.5° E) Meteosat-7 (57.5° E) Meteosat-6 (67.5° E) S 0 60 N

Slide: 10EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Polar-orbiting satellites EUMETSAT Polar System (EPS) is Europe’s first series of polar-orbiting satellites for operational meteorology consists of three Metop in low Earth orbit to operate over a period of at least 14 years. Metop-A (in operation since 2007) carries imaging and sounding instruments has direct broadcasting and data collection capabilities significantly contributes to the Global Observing System and the monitoring of climate and atmospheric chemistry. EPS data are of unprecedented accuracy are used in various applications such as Numerical Weather Prediction models, cloud detection analysis or radiation budget components.

Slide: 11EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Monitoring the oceans Jason-2 was launched in June 2008 from Vandenberg, California is EUMETSAT’s first optional programme on ocean altimetry. has enabled EUMETSAT to extend its expertise in data and product dissemination for weather forecasting and climate monitoring through the inclusion of data in support of marine meteorology, operational oceanography, seasonal prediction and climate monitoring.

Slide: 12EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites ASCAT Instrument on Metop C-Band scatterometer Measures: – Ocean wind speed and direction – Soil moisture – Ice properties Calibration using a ground-based transponder network to ensure consistent performance over 14+ years of mission

Slide: 13EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites ASCAT Ocean wind products Ocean and Sea Ice SAF produces operational ASCAT wind vectors at 25 km and 12.5 km spatial sampling ASCAT wind speed product visualisation, 28/10/2009

Slide: 14EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites ASCAT use in Numerical Weather Prediction ASCAT Sigma-0 triplets are used at ECMWF since 12/06/2007 Used/daySTDV(SCAT–FGAT) QuikSCAT ~120k/4 1.3 m/s 14 deg ASCAT ~30k 1.3 m/s 14 deg Comparison of ASCAT measurement with First Guess at Appropriate Time (FGAT) over the period 10/ /2009 Left: Wind speed scatter plot Right: Wind direction scatter plot Figures courtesy of Hans Hersbach, ECMWF

Slide: 15EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites ASCAT use in Ocean Prediction Centre Identify weather features Lows, highs, fronts Intensity Trends Marine wind warnings Issue, continue, terminate One category lower compared to QS Rarely detects HF conditions Short term marine forecasts Aerial coverage of winds Real-time Verification Comparison to NWP analyses Feature intensity Slide content courtesy of Zorana Jelenak, NOAA

Slide: 16EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites ASCAT use in typhoon tracking 9-day typhoon position forecast for typhoon FITOW － : QuikSCAT － : ASCAT － : ASCAT and QuikSCAT － : No Scatterometer － : Analyzed Track Tokyo ★ In addition to the increase of data coverage, assimilation of less contaminated winds by rainfall has positive impact on typhoon position forecasts. Assimilated winds QuikSCAT ASCAT QC-passed (blue) and rejected (red) winds ASCAT (Initial: 12UTC 07/08/28) QuikSCAT (Initial: 06UTC 07/08/28) Initial: 12UTC 07/08/28 Slide content courtesy of Masaya Takahashi, JMA

Slide: 17EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites ASCAT Soil Moisture Index Product Product developed by Tech. University of Vienna for EUMETSAT/Hydrology SAF, operational since 11/2008

Slide: 18EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Jason-2 Product characteristics Major characteristics of the product OGDR (NRT) IGDR (OFL) GDR (OFL) Content Not fully validated geophysical level 2 product fully validated geophysical level 2 product Alt. ground retracking Applied Orbit information source Better than 10 cm DORIS Navigator 2.5 cm preliminary orbit1.5 cm Precise orbit Structure segmentpass Packaging segmentdaycycle Ground Processing mode systematic Data latency /availability 3 hours / 75% 5 hours / 95% <1.5 calendar days / 95% 60 days / 95% Format / Ground Processing centers Native and BUFR / NOAA and EUMETSAT Native / CNES Ground Archiving centers NOAA and CNES and EUMETSAT NOAA and CNES Dissemination centers NOAA and EUMETSATNOAA and CNES Dissemination mode Systematic Electronic & Satellite Systematic Electronic Systematic Electronic - Media

Slide: 19EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Jason-2 Significant Wave Height Product Global comparison between Ku-Band and ECMWF wave model (WAM) first-guess SWH values (ECMWF, From 01 August to 31 October 2008) Jason-1Jason-2

Slide: 20EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Jason-2 Wind speed product Global comparison between altimeter and ECMWF model analysis wind speed values (ECMWF, From 01 August to 31 October 2008) Jason-1Jason-2

Slide: 21EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Jason-2 Coastal application DEM/DIODE tracking mode Comparison of the number of waveforms over the Amazon river Top: Jason-2 tracker configured as for Jason-1 Middle: median tracker Bottom: Diode/DEM mode with on orbit ephemeris coupled with DEM

Slide: 22EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Jason-2 Summary Assimilation of Jason-2 significant wave heights in the ECMWF model has a positive impact on the model forecasts. The NRT products (OGDR) from Jason-2 are operational since December, 2008 Jason-1 and Jason-2 were shifted apart by ca. a half orbit in February, 2009, and thereafter both data-streams are assimilated operationally as long as Jason-1 is still alive

Slide: 23EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites SENTINEL SERIES: Sentinel-3 The Sentinels Series: Operational satellites to meet the Earth Observation needs of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) programme. Sentinel-1: C-band SAR Sentinel-2: Superspectral (Land) Sentinel-3: Ocean Sentinel-4/-5: Atmospheric Chemistry The pair of Sentinel-3 satellites will provide global, frequent and near-real time ocean, ice and land monitoring. Sentinel-3

Slide: 24EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Sentinel-3: Product Priorities Ocean: – Sea-Surface Temperature – Sea Surface Topography – Ocean Colour Land: – Land Surface Temperature – Land Surface Biophysical Properties Products processed in Near Real Time by EUMETSAT Products processed by ESA

Slide: 25EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Sentinel-3: Key Payload SLSTR: Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer SRAL: Synthetic Aperture Radar Altimeter OLCI: Ocean and Land Colour Instrument MWR: MicroWave Radiometer LRR: Laser Retro-Reflector Launch Configuration

Slide: 26EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Instruments and Ocean Products SLSTR: (ENVISAT AATSR Follow-on) SRAL: (CRYOSAT based) MWR: MicroWave Radiometer LRR : Laser Retro-Reflector OLCI: (MERIS Follow-on) Sea Surface Temperature: (SST) Altimeter products: Sea Surface Height, (SSH), Sea Ice (SI) Significant Wave Height (SWH) Surface Wind Speeds (SWS) Altimetry support: (ionosphere, troposhere corrections, Precise Orbit Determination) Ocean Colour: ocean Chlorophyll (Chl), yellow substance (YS) Suspended Sediment,

Slide: 27EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Instruments and Land Products SLSTR: (ENVISAT AATSR Follow-on) OLCI: (MERIS Follow-on) SRAL: (CRYOSAT based) Lake Aral Variations

Slide: 28EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Ocean model Atmospheric model Wave model Delayed Ocean Analysis ~12 days Real Time Ocean Analysis ~8 hours ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts 10-Day Medium-Range Forecasts 10-Day Medium-Range Forecasts Seasonal Forecasts Seasonal Forecasts Monthly Forecasts Monthly Forecasts Atmospheric model Wave model NWP Forecast Systems: ECMWF example

Slide: 29EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Atmosphere-Wave Model two-way coupling Atmospheric model Wave model 10 meter Model Winds Aerodynamic Surface Roughness based on 2D Model Wave Spectrum Time "Two-way interaction of wind and waves may either deepen or fill an atmospheric low." [Janssen ECMWF] Sentinel 3 - SRAL: Wind Speeds for validation Sentinel 3-SRAL: Significant Wave Heights for assimilation in Wave Model 10-Day Medium-Range Forecasts 10-Day Medium-Range Forecasts Ocean model SRAL

Slide: 30EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Satellite Altimeter data impact on wave prediction Aouf et al. 2004, Météo-France. RMS Model SWH differences (m) Impact studies, comparing 'with' and 'without' altimetry SWH assimilation => Better predictions with a constellation of Satellite altimeters no impact high impact Atmospheric model Wave model SRAL

Slide: 31EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice " SST and Sea-Ice play an important role in determining the behaviour of the overlying atmosphere." ECMWF: ERA40 Annual Net Surface Heat Exchange Ocean model Atmospheric model Wave model SLSTR SRAL

Slide: 32EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites OSTIA SST at Met Office NWP SST didn’t capture the warming. OSTIA – NWP SST NWP Bias 925hPa, 48hr forecasts After: John Stark Medspiration, Workshop 2007 OSTIA = OSI SAF SST Products + AATSR SLSTR

Slide: 33EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites August Trial Results… OSTIA SSTs substantially reduced the negative bias seen with NWP SSTs at 850hPa. OSTIA now fully operational, relying on supply of OSI SAF and AATSR data. All Met Office forecasts now use OSTIA SST. NWP SSTs OSTIA SSTs Forecast Range ( to 5 days) Mean Error (K) SLSTR UK Met Office

Slide: 34EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites SST and Wind and Storms "Sea Surface Eddies determine the Turbulent Air-Sea Interactions" Contours: Surface Surface Temperature Colours: Surface Wind Stress [Chelton 2006:] SeaWinds Wind and AMSR SST Data GOAL: Improve the modelling of boundary layer mixing in the ECMWF model with Satellite Data. Ocean model Atmospheric model Wave model SLSTR SRAL

Slide: 35EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Case Study: Hurricane Dean 2007 (winds) Uncoupled with Ocean Coupled with Ocean SLSTR SRAL Figures courtesy of NOAA

Slide: 36EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites OSI-SAF:Operational SST Products Ocean model Atmospheric model OSI SAF GRIB Operational SST Products OSI SAF Operational L2P SST Products "EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice SAF products are addressing both the NWP and Ocean Communities" ! Sentinel-3 SLSTR: Continuation, Improvements Validation of OSI SAF SST Products SLSTR

Slide: 37EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Operational Sea Ice Products Ocean model Atmospheric model OSI SAF Sea Ice Products: Various regions, various formats ! Sentinel-3 SRAL: Continuation, Improvements Validation of OSI SAF Sea Ice Products edge concentration type SRAL

Slide: 38EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Sea Surface Height: Constellation Of Altimeters Blue: Sentinel-3 Black: Jason NW-Atlantic Sentinel-3: Longer Repeat Cycle, More Coverage: => Dedication to Model applications Jason-1,2,..: Short Repeat Cycle, Non Sun-Synchronous: => Reference Mission for Climate Record of Sea Level Rise SRAL

Slide: 39EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites TROPAC Seasonal Forecasting ECMWF: Buoys and Altimeters Observing systems are complementary: Altimeter has largest impact in Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Argo has largest impact in Western Pacific/Indian Ocean Courtesy. M. Balmaseda (ECMWF), 2007 NINO12NINO3 NINO4 EQIND NSTRATL SRAL

Slide: 40EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Correlation with OSCAR currents (taken as truth) Monthly means, period: Seasonal cycle removed No Data Assimilation Assimilation:Temp+Sal Assimilation:T+S+Alt ECMWF Ocean Model: Effects on currents SRAL

Slide: 41EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Cross-Calibrations => Sentinel-3 contributing to Sea Level Rise Monitoring Sentinel-3: Climate Contributions WCRP: A warmer ocean can contribute to more intense hurricanes. EUMETSAT: Hurricane Dean: IPCC:2007 Leuliette et. al (re-newed) Red: tide gauges reconstructed Blue: Coastal Tide Gauges Black: Sat altimetry Red: Topex/Poseidon Blue: Coastal Tide Gauges Green: Jason SRAL SLSTR

Slide: 42EUMETSAT Programme status and future activites Sentinel-3: Summary High Quality Sea Surface Temperature. Sea-ice Measurements similar to those from CryoSat-2 Complement the Jason ocean altimeter series. –Mainly for ocean model applications –Contributions to Sea Level Rise Climate Record –Lake Monitoring Various Land and Inland Surface Parameters. Ocean Colour Sentinel-3