Public Policy/Legislative Impact Scenario Building

What Is Scenario Building? Scenario building is a structured way of thinking about and exploring the future.  It highlights the large scale forces that push the future in different directions and produces stories about how those forces might play out. 

Why Scenario Building? A tool that helps shape thinking about the future Engages whole systems thinking about what is important to us and the institutions we work for Creates options for the future; short, medium and long-term Helps identify strategies to harness and implement those options

So, are you up to exploring?

Approaching the Task Check mental models, assumptions, and agendas Each of us often sees an issue through a narrow perspective; our experience, education, philosophical and emotional view of the world. This view is important but should not be set in stone. Believe that the wisdom related to the topic is within the group Within given constraints, the best group has been assembled for the task. Honor each other’s ideas Listen, reflect, ask questions for clarification and understanding. Assume that what is known for certain. . . is false Combine rigor with creativity Allow ideas you don’t understand to surface and see the light of day.

Essential Question University of Michigan; Vision 2010 “How will digital technology impact higher education?” Schoolcraft College: SimTech Center “How will simulation technology impact teaching and learning at Schoolcraft College?” MACRAO Session: Public Policy/Legislation “How will government legislation impact higher education enterprises?”

Identifying Key Factors Factors = the drivers of change; trends and other conditions that shape the future Factors can be visible, hidden, disruptive Highest layers of factors often correspond to superficial and fast-changing trends Deepest layers involve values, world views and belief systems

Identifying Key Factors Micro-factors = those that directly relate to the world we are now occupying (your institution, other MI community colleges, other higher ed. institutions, etc.) Macro-factors = those that come from the larger environment (may drive micro-factors)

Identifying Key Factors STEEP = frame for identifying key factors Social Technological Economic Environmental Political

Bundling Factors Rank factors for certainty and uncertainty 1. Which factors will be most significant in determining the answer to our essential question? 2. Which factors, amongst the most significant, are most certain; are predetermined? Which are uncertain?

Bundling Factors Which factors are most significant? Which factors are most uncertain most uncertain? Fragmentation Digital Literacy Competition Individual Community Coherence

Identifying Axis Factors High end Quadrant 1 Quadrant 2 Political/Economic low impact Political/Economic high impact Simulation Technology Capacity Quadrant 4 Quadrant 3 Low end

Building the Stories Each quadrant on the axis represents a different future Return to the list of key factors How will these factors play out in each quadrant? Play with placing the factors in your quadrant? What are the implications? What is the emerging plot? Begin to capture this as a story

Building Strategies Determine who will author each of the four scenarios Determine who will identify strategies based on each scenario Develop four possible strategies to answer the essential question? Develop the plan Look for indicators that demonstrate the future is heading in the direction of one or more scenarios Make adjustments in the plan as needed