IMPACT 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza1 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty UniBwM Breach Modelling Dr.-Ing. Karl Broich

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza2 Content Breach Model DEICH_P Test cases - Field Test cases - Laboratory Test cases Breach Analysis - Monte Carlo Analysis using MCAT - Tous Test case Breach Location - Identifying Breach Locations - Breach analysis a long embankment dam line

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza3 Breach Model DEICH_P DEICH_P : a Dam Erosion Model with Initial Breach Characteristic using a Parametrical approach

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza4 Breach Model DEICH_P Algorithm Q from broadcrested weir formula Sediment transport Breach formation H from QH-relation Advance in time Iteration

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza5 Breach Model DEICH_P Process Structure DEICH_P MCAT FLOODSIM Monte Carlo Analysis Tool 2d-numerical SWE-solver

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza6 Breach Model DEICH_P Data Structure

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza7 Breach Model DEICH_P Erosion modes mode 1 : non cohesive without core mode 2 : non cohesive with core mode 3 : cohesive with discrete erosion - head cut - approach - “Weißmann” - approach mode 4 : cohesive with continuous erosion

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza8 Breach Model DEICH_P Initial breach modes mode 1 : breach notch mode 2 : piping Coverage resistance According to CIRIA-experiments

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza9 Breach Model DEICH_P Breach Formation

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza10 Breach Model DEICH_P Breach Formation without core

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza11 Breach Model DEICH_P Breach Formation with core

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza12 Test cases Field Test Case 1

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza13 Test cases Field Test Case 2

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza14 Test cases Field Test Case 3

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza15 Test cases Field Test Case 4

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza16 Test cases Field Test Case 5

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza17 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 2

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza18 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 4

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza19 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 5

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza20 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 6

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza21 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 7

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza22 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 9

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza23 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 10

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza24 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 11

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza25 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 12

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza26 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 13

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza27 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 14

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza28 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 15

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza29 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 16

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza30 Test cases Laboratory Test Case 17

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza31 Breach Analysis Monte Carlo Analysis using MCAT MCAT-software of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine London. The core of the toolbox is based on the concept of Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA, Spear and Hornberger, 1980; Hornberger and Spear, 1981), and its extension to the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique developed at Lancaster University by Beven and coworkers (Beven and Binley, 1992; Freer et al., 1996). In GLUE no single optimum parameter set is identified, rather a set of behavioural models are selected where each model has a certain likelihood (pseudo probability) of being the correct representation of the system. This method recognises that it is not possible to identify a single best model in the face of model/data error. MCAT is implemented for MATLAB.

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza32 Breach Analysis Tous Test case : Given data

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza33 Breach Analysis Tous Test case : Sample rate

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza34 Breach Analysis Tous Test case : Procedure Fix Model Parameters using GLUE MC-Variation on Input Parameters If calibration data is given:

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza35 Breach Analysis Tous Test case : Fixing

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza36 Breach Analysis Tous Test case : Variation Erosion Mode 1

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza37 Breach Analysis Tous Test case : Variation Erosion Mode 2

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza38 All upper-mid-lower results

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza39 Breach Location Case study areas

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza40 Breach Location Identifying Breach Locations : Test case Iller River

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza41 Breach Location Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line DEICH_P FLOODSIM Module in 2d-numerical SWE-solver

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza42 Breach Location Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line Calculation a long lines (multiple breach locations)

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza43 Breach Location Calculation a long lines (multiple breach locations) Mangfall River – an example Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 5 November 20044th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza44 Breach Location Breach Risk Analysis for Levees – a proposal P ~ 1/ 