Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Differences in Public Opinion: Elites vs. Mass Public Elite Political Behavior –People who are deeply interested and involved in politics –High levels of political knowledge –Well structured ideologies “Liberal” or “conservative” ideologies unite their positions on policy issues –Response stability

Differences in Public Opinion: Elites vs. Mass Public Mass Behavior –Low levels of political knowledge –Unstable opinions Over time, their responses to similar questions vary greatly –Inconsistent opinions Ideologies are not grounded in consistent issue positions

Explaining Political Behavior of Masses Low levels of political knowledge can be attributed to several factors: –Education tied to political knowledge –High information costs Gathering, processing, and storing information is neither effortless nor free Other more interesting things to do with your time –Other things to do, read, watch

How can information costs be reduced? Issue publics –Deflects information costs by limiting the amount of information needed to form opinions Cues –Elite Cues –Partisan Cues Finding more enjoyable means for obtaining political “information” –Soft news – O’Reilly Factor, Crossfire, etc. –Late-night – Letterman, Leno, Conan, Daily Show

How are opinions formed? Political Socialization –Definition: The process through which individuals acquire their orientations towards the political world Personal experience –Opinions are often influenced by life experiences

Why is public opinion important? Helps political candidates and politicians identify the most important concerns among the public –Issues to run on –Policies to pass Drawbacks –Encourages short-term solutions over long-term solutions –Can be easily manipulated Intentionally (by elites and media) Unintentionally (by salient events)

Presidential Approval Ratings and The “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect

Presidential Approval Today, presidential approval is gauged in very regular intervals –“Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? “ –In addition to this general assessment of presidential job performance, polling companies also ask a variety of more specific questions on the economy, foreign affairs, taxes, etc.

Presidential Approval A President’s public approval ratings will give him leverage: In Washington –Increases bargaining ability –Increases his ability to “go public” –Some believe that it increases his success rate on roll-call votes in Congress Nationally –Can serve as an early barometer for upcoming elections

Determinants of Presidential Approval Rating Best predictor: –Consumer expectations What leads to deviations from this? –Honeymoon effects Presidents enjoy higher levels of approval at the beginning of a term –Rally ‘round the flag effect Presidents get a large bump in approval during times of national crisis

Rally Events What defines a “rally event”? –International event –Event directly involves the United States and particularly the president –Specific, dramatic, and sharply focused –Salient to the public These events confront the nation as a whole –Gain enormous public event and attention

Why do people “rally around the flag”? People will increase their support for the president (at least in the short-run) because he is the symbol of the country and the primary focus during times of crisis People do not want to hurt nation’s chance at success by opposing the president

George H.W. Bush

George W. Bush