The Role of LAPS in the National Weather Service: Now and the Future Ben Baranowski 1 Jeffrey Medlin 2 Darrel Kingfield 1 1 Coop. Inst. of Meso. Metr.

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Presentation transcript:

The Role of LAPS in the National Weather Service: Now and the Future Ben Baranowski 1 Jeffrey Medlin 2 Darrel Kingfield 1 1 Coop. Inst. of Meso. Metr. Studies/ Warning Decision Training Branch, Norman, Oklahoma 2 National Weather Service Forecast Office, Mobile, Alabama

Overview of Topics LAPS configuration in the NWS (Ben) LAPS visualization in forecast operations (Jeffrey) LAPS usage across the NWS (Darrel) Future applications with LAPS (Ben)

The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) Fielded in mid-90s Self contained processing and display system: –Decoders –Visualization –Dissemination of products (warnings) –Archiver AWIPS is an integrated suite of automated data-processing equipment that supports complex analysis, interactive processing, display of hydrometeorological data, and the rapid dissemination of warnings and forecasts in a highly reliable manner. AWIPS D2D 3-monitor Display

LAPS in AWIPS LAPS –No national NWS training Background Models: –RUC 40 –ETA 48 –No capability for higher-res models Input data: –Metar –Maritime –Raob –Acars/Pireps –level-3 radar –Profiler –Satellite CRON Entries: 20 * * * * perl /awips/laps/etc/sched.pl /awips/laps/ /awips/laps/data 03,19,34,49 * * * * perl /awips/laps/etc/laps_driver.pl vrc_driver.x /awips/laps /awips/laps/data 08,14,23,29,38,45,53,59 * * * * perl /awips/laps/etc/laps_driver.pl lvd_sat_ingest.exe /awips/laps /awips/laps/data

LAPS Processing in AWIPS LAPS Default Domain: –10 km grid spacing –~ 600 km by 600 km –Centered over the area of responsibility. OUN

WFO MOB LAPS Domain WFO MOB’s DOMAIN

WFO MOB’s WRF Domain

“LAPS Hot Start Example” ***Initialization with LAPS Radar***

“LAPS Hot Start Example” ***One hour later and after ~600 time steps!*** WRF 1h Precipitation Accumulation Usually lose that ‘bump’ by fourth hour!

ASOS, AWOS, C-MAN and Buoys WFO MOB’s Domain

ASOS, AWOS, C-MAN, Buoys, USA Mesonet, Eglin Mesonet, RAWS, Other WFO MOB’s Domain ??????

Mobile Bay WFO MOB’s Domain Improved Coastal Analysis

LAPS Utilization in the WFOs ?????? WFO MOB’s Domain Problematic Inland Analyses

LAPS Utilization in the WFOs WFO MOB’s Domain Problematic Inland Analyses

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Big Picture with Local Detail! 0-1km MLCAPE UTC 500 hPa 300 hPa 250 hPa 850 hPa

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Big Picture with Local Detail! 0-1km MLCAPE UTC 500 hPa 300 hPa 250 hPa 850 hPa A A’

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Big Picture with Local Detail! 0-1km MLCAPE UTC LAPS ω, isotachs and LAPS ω, isotachs and LAPS RH, and condensation PDEF LAPS frontogenesis and ageo vert crcln LAPS DIV, CAPE and q A’A

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications -POP-UP Skew -T log P Can quickly compare LAPS to other NWP sources. Very useful for quickly scanning lapse rates and moisture distribution over entire area at once without loading point soundings which can take extra time. Would like to see parameters display as one roams around though. Also feel Skew-T display could be made to be larger.

Other Tools that Use LAPS -Standard Environmental Data Packages Maps environmental data to radar tilts isotherms, wind vectors, etc Allows cursor sampling of environment data at height of radar bin and display height on Popup SkewT

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Integrated Quantities- 0-1km MLCAPE UTC Multicell forms in this area Updraft intensifies in this area

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Integrated Quantities- 0-1 km MLCAPE UTC Multicell in question

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Integrated Quantities- 0-1 km MLCAPE UTC Updraft develops into a mesocyclone

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Integrated Quantities- Local Tornado Warning Example - 15 May

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Integrated Quantities km Sr Helicity 1600 UTC 150 m 2 s -2 Anticipation based on T-R-E-N-D-S of observed ingredients!

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Integrated Quantities km Sr Helicity 1700 UTC ~250 m 2 s -2

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Integrated Quantities km Sr Helicity 1800 UTC ~330 m 2 s -2

Most Popular NWS Mobile, AL Applications - Integrated Quantities- SPC watching NCEP RUC may not always observe the same thing as a WFO’s local LAPS. Many times, I have collaborated positively to bring about an improved forecast simply based on a more accurate spatial distribution, magnitude and tendency of both CAPE and Sr Helicity (e.g., shaving off a row of counties from a watch). Local Tornado Warning Example - 15 May

Verification Local Red Flag Warning Criteria met on a relative small scale! *Improve PODs *Reduce FARs

Verification LAPS used exclusively in GFE to represent the “observed” condition beginning t 0 - ∆t. Diurnal T and T d curves generated from these grids. Also, during first six hours of forecast these grids can be used when the forecast is one of persistence.

LAPS Usage Across the NWS Purpose Office input of LAPS strengths & weaknesses Site Selection 31 forecast offices across United States Site selection based on geographic characteristics

Knowledge of the LAPS Software LAPS Knowledge Response Frequency By Region Weak UnderstandingStrong Understanding 12345

Estimate of Office LAPS Use Mean Percentage of Forecasters Using LAPS Per Office “LAPS is more of an event-driven tool than a situational awareness tool”

Events where LAPS is an asset Responses fit climatology –Central/South U.S. Severe Weather Analysis, Convective Potential and Instability –North U.S. Winter Weather, melting layer, wind analysis –Western U.S. Moisture trends, synoptic-forced systems Weather CategoryNumber of Responses Severe Weather & Convective Potential 16 Wind Fields, Frontal Analysis 8 Winter Weather & Mixed Precipitation 7 Current Conditions, Benign Weather 6 Moisture Analysis4 Temperature Trends2 Aviation Forecasting2

Trust in LAPS Output Trust dependent on 2 factors: –Topography –Surface network input density Vocal sites do not QC observations “The analysis can go bad and usually this is easy to spot if you have an awareness of your geographic domain.” “Ignore remote or elevated stations.” “Lack of trust when we see bull's-eyes” Data Hole

Customization of LAPS Minimal customization activity Reasons Why Not… Unsure of customization possibilities Fear of interrupting live operations Customization Procedures Number of Responses Use/Maintain a blacklist10 Change domain size/resolution 5 Added new input data for LAPS to initialize 3 Run LAPS more than once an hour 2 Blacklist Example

LAPS Output & Local Modeling 28 Offices – Why Not Yet? No compatible model, do not know how, LAPS output/model domain conflict. 3 Offices – How Did You Do It? Some use a newer version of LAPS external to AWIPS for model initialization. Currently initialize a local model with LAPS? Number of Responses No21 No, but would like to7 Yes3

Transition from AWIPS 1 to AWIPS 2 AWIPS 1 (now) AWIPS 2 (soon)

LAPS and AWIPS-2 AWIPS 1AWIPS 2 File FormatNetCDFHDF5 LAPS Version LAPS OutputAWIPS 1 NetCDFGrib2 New LAPS allows for RUC 13 ingest Bug fixes Common AWIPS Vis. Environment (CAVE) replaces D-2D –Display of LAPS is the same in CAVE as was in D-2D

AWIPS 2 LAPS Processing

NWS Suggestions on How to Increase LAPS Usage General Comments –Effective documentation –Training Customization Value High Expertise Comments –Increase grid spacing, domain size, time frequency –Predictive component

Potential solutions to the NWS suggestions High Expertise Users –Predictive: Incorporate LAPS into WRF –Config: Upgrade of AWIPS hardware General Comments –Docs: AWIPS2 Documentation –Training: Training for AWIPS 2 LAPS Experts (~May 2011) Training for forecasters?

LAPS Training Need: Application & Example-Driven Learning Solution: Configuration and Best practices training Configuration: –How to mitigate data and analysis issues –How to incorporate LAPS into local model Best Practices: –Illustrate the value of LAPS through specific relevant examples

Final Thoughts LAPS in AWIPS since ’90s Preference for LAPS is not consistent across NWS “LAPS is an event driven tool” AWIPS 2 provides an opportunity for an update to LAPS Expert Training Re-emphasize the value of LAPS AWIPS 2 LAPS training contact: