Eastern Region Aviation Overview Fred McMullen Regional Aviation Meteorologist Fred McMullen Regional Aviation Meteorologist

2 Organization 2 CWSUs Full Support of NAS VAACs and MWOs WFOs NCEP/ AWC

Eastern Region Breakdown

Central Weather Service Units

Eastern Region Breakdown 23 Weather Forecast Offices 4 Central Weather Service Units 133 TAFs four times daily 11 Airports are 30 hour TAFs Site Specific Amendment Criteria at –BWI, CLT, DCI, EKN, and IAD 23 Weather Forecast Offices 4 Central Weather Service Units 133 TAFs four times daily 11 Airports are 30 hour TAFs Site Specific Amendment Criteria at –BWI, CLT, DCI, EKN, and IAD

Eastern Region Breakdown Airport Weather Warnings issued at 7 locations –ALY, BOS, BUF, CAE, ILM, MYR, PVD Criteria varies from airport to airport: –Surface wind gusts >40 knots –Onset of freezing rain –Cloud to ground lightning within 5 miles of the airport –Thunderstorms with >½ inch hail –Onset of heavy snow Airport Weather Warnings issued at 7 locations –ALY, BOS, BUF, CAE, ILM, MYR, PVD Criteria varies from airport to airport: –Surface wind gusts >40 knots –Onset of freezing rain –Cloud to ground lightning within 5 miles of the airport –Thunderstorms with >½ inch hail –Onset of heavy snow

Regional Aviation Duties Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Weather Forecast Offices Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Central Weather Service Units Review feedback between WFOs and Aviation community Collaborate with FAA, other NWS Regional Headquarters, and Aviation Weather Center Formulate Policy Quality Control Coordinate Sub-Regional Aviation Workshops Facilitate establishment of new TAFs and Airport Weather Warnings Improve Aviation Verification Numbers Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Weather Forecast Offices Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Central Weather Service Units Review feedback between WFOs and Aviation community Collaborate with FAA, other NWS Regional Headquarters, and Aviation Weather Center Formulate Policy Quality Control Coordinate Sub-Regional Aviation Workshops Facilitate establishment of new TAFs and Airport Weather Warnings Improve Aviation Verification Numbers

CWSU Improvements AWIPS Remote Display (ARD) AvnFPS TAF monitoring program Chat software Web recording software Conference calls with WFOs Work TAFs AWIPS Remote Display (ARD) AvnFPS TAF monitoring program Chat software Web recording software Conference calls with WFOs Work TAFs

Collaboration = Consistency Daily conference calls between CWSU New York, WFOs New York City and Philadelphia. Preliminary TAFs generated and collaborated for Dulles and Boston between CWSUs and WFOs. CWSU New York and Atlanta daily conference calls with Delta Meteorologists Daily conference calls between CWSU New York, WFOs New York City and Philadelphia. Preliminary TAFs generated and collaborated for Dulles and Boston between CWSUs and WFOs. CWSU New York and Atlanta daily conference calls with Delta Meteorologists

CWSU ZDC – WFO Sterling

Verification NWS Goals FY 2009 –Probability of Detection (POD) 0.64 –False Alarm Rate (FAR) 0.36 Eastern Region FY 2008 –POD 0.65 –FAR 0.33 NWS Goals FY 2009 –Probability of Detection (POD) 0.64 –False Alarm Rate (FAR) 0.36 Eastern Region FY 2008 –POD 0.65 –FAR 0.33

Albany Aviation On Demand Near teal time feedback

Albany Aviation Verification Creates historical database Six hour verification Conduct research on specific events Daily backup Creates historical database Six hour verification Conduct research on specific events Daily backup

Verification

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Digital Aviation Forecasts

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Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI) CCFP TAF Metars Near real time verification of aviation forecast and impacts CCFP TAF Metars Near real time verification of aviation forecast and impacts

NAS Weather Index (WITI) vs. Combined WITI-FA and Delta (“forecast goodness”) Negative delta = Under-forecast of traffic impact Positive delta = Over-forecast of traffic impact 30-day period ending 11/12/2008 NWX = 100 is a “normally- impacted ” day Delta > +/-50 may indicate a forecast “issue” November 12,

OEP Airports Analysis Under-forecast at BOS (actual ceilings, Ft, lower than forecast ceilings, Ft) – however, no impact on operations due to low traffic demand on a Sunday

Terminal WITI Figure 98: T-WITI NAS-at-a-Glance matrix Figure 109: T-WITI-FA NAS-at-a-Glance matrix