Energy Development Schemes/ Energy Programs Conference on Climate Change and Energy Cooperation in South Asia   Organized by: SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SAARC CCI) In Collaboration with: Bhutan Chamber of Commerce & Industry (BCCI) Supported by: Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit   Hotel Zhiwaling, Paro, Bhutan 22-23 April, 2012   Energy Development Schemes/ Energy Programs Mollah Amzad Hossain Editor, Energy & Power Bangladesh energypower@gmail.com

Bangladesh at a Glance Official Name : People’s Republic of Bangladesh Political System : Parliamentary Democracy Population : 148 Million Area : 147,570 km Time Zone : GMT+6 Hours GDP Total : USD 112 b (FY 2011) GDP Per Capita : USD 755 (FY 2011) Total Exports : USD 23 Billion (FY 2011) Total Import : USD 34 Billion (FY 2011) Forex Reserve : USD 12 Billion (FY 2011) Currency : BDT (1 BDT = 1.22 US Cents) Major Citites : Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Sylhet, Rajshahi, Barisal. 2

Primary Fuel Supply Scenario Gas: No significant gas discovery in recent years; Depleting gas reserve restricts gas-based power generation Coal: Near term option; Indigenous or Imported; Base Load; Oil: Volatile market; High price; For peaking plant LNG: Necessary to ensure reliable gas supply Nuclear: No pollution; Expected to be future Base-Load option, Safe and reliable technology; 3

Energy Development Schemes/Energy Programs Bangladesh Energy Scenario Electricity Growth : 14 % (July-Jan FY-2012) (Av. 7 % since 1990) Generation Capacity : 8005 MW (March, 2012) Total Consumers : 13 Million Transmission Lines : 8,600 km Distribution Lines : 2,78,000 km Per Capita Generation : 265 kWh (incl. Captive) Access to Electricity : 53 %

Present Power Generation Capacity (March, 2012) Public Sector SL. Generation Capacity (MW) 1. BPDB 3483 2. APSCL 662 3. EGCB 210 Subtotal 4,355 (54 %) Private Sector IPPs 1272 SIPPs (BPDB) 99 SIPPs (REB) 226 4. 15 YR. Rental 168 5. 3/5 YR. Rental 554 6. Quick Rental 1331 3,650 (46 %) Total 8,005 Considering 20% Maintenance and Forced Outage, Available Generation Capacity is about 6400 MW without fuel constraint 5

Energy Development Schemes/Energy Programs Bangladesh Energy Scenario Total 24 Hours Demand Around 200 Mkwh Installed Generation Capacity 192 Mkwh Total Farm Generation Capacity Around 154 Mkwh From Natural Gas Capacity Around 108 Mkwh From Imported Fuel Capacity Around 55 Mkwh From Own Coal Capacity Around 8 Mkwh From Hydro Capacity Around 8 Mkwh Highest Generation Around 110 Mkwh Average Generation Around 90 Mkwh Short Supply of Energy Around 90 Mkwh (in Summer)

Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year) January, 2012 7

Fuel Mix up to 2017 27 36 35 24 19 15 CY Gas + LNG Hydro Coal (Dom + Imp) Power Imp + Renewable Oil Total (MW) Capacity (MW) % 2011 5107 67% 220 3% 200 0% 2086 27 7,600 2012 5707 60% 2% 3432 36 9,600 2013 7283 58% 512 4% 4339 35 12,000 2014 9278 62% 1% 766 5% 630 4027 15,000 2015 10206 61% 1538 9% 24 16,000 2016 10956 3138 17% 3395 19 18,000 2017 11557 57% 4938 24% 3095 15 20,000

Generation Capacity by Fuel Type 9 9

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Regional Power Exchange: Possibilities 1000MW 750MW THAKURGAON 1000MW SILCHAR FENCHUGANJ ALIDUARPUR BOGURA PURNIA BARAPUKURIA FENCHUGANJ 250MW PALLATANA COMILLA (N) BHERAMARA BAHARAMPUR 500 MW COMILLA (N) BAHARAMPURBHERAMARA 500MW [2013-]   500MW [2018-]   MYANMAR CHITTAGONG

Road Map for Coal Power Development (as of 2030) Domestic Coal K-D-P 6x1000 MW USC K-D-P 8x 600 MW USC Import Coal Meghnaghat 2x600MW Zajira/New Meg 3x600MW Chittagong 3x660MW Moheshkhali/Matarbari 4x600MW Khulna 2x660MW (Dom Future) Railway Total 19,200MW (New) Coal Center Chittagong Matarbari Sonadia Island 　　: Potential Coal PS 　　: Potential Coal Center 　　: Ocean-going vessel 　　: Transship

RE, EE & Conservation Plan to Add 5% Power from RE by 2015 and 10% by 2021 World Successful Model in Solar Home System (SHS). Already Installed 1.5 Million SHS Total Capacity 64 MWp. Plan to Installed more 1 million by next year. Solar Irrigation: Installed 30 project and Plan to Installed 100 more Grid Connected Solar Power Plant abound 100MW Stan alone Roof Top Solar Wind: 2MW Installed, More 200MW Planed. Work going on for Wind Mapping. Biogas and Improved Cooking Stove (IVS).

RE, EE & Conservation GOB Enact National Renewable Policy On Way to Form Sustainable and Renewable Energy Authority Distributed 20 Million CFL Draft Energy Conservation Act ready for Pass Energy Efficient Buildings Act Way to Final Energy Auditing and Product Leveling Way to Start.

Investment by 2030 (Gen & Tran) Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Investment (Billion US$) Domestic Coal 9850 13.92 Imported Coal 7800 12.47 Natural Gas 8956 7.63 Furnace Oil 5217 5.89 Diesel 500 0.56 Hydro 100 0.14 RE 111 0.36 Cross Border Power 3500 ------ Sub Total 36034 40.97 Transmission ------- 7.53 Total -------- 48.5

Investment Apart from That GOB need $17 Billion more for Built LNG Terminal and Coal Import Infrastructure. Power Purchase from IPP, SIPP, Rental $ 1 Billion/Annually Annual Cost for Gas, Coal, LNG and Fuel Oil Cost not Included in Earlier Slide (Expert Opinion -- Gas $550M, Coal $3B, LNG $2.5B and Fuel Oil $3B/ Annually) Local Finance Not Enough Need FDI

Regional Energy Scenario Bangladesh 8000 MW Shortage 40-50% Bhutan 1488 MW, No Shortage, Export to India Pakistan 20922 MW, Shortage 5000-7000MW Nepal 714 MW Monsoon Supply 660MW Winter 325MW Power cut 12 to 16 Hours, Exporter and Importer Afghanistan Around 1200MW (66% Imported) Sri Lanka 2878MW (Costly Electricity) No Shortage India Around 200,000MW, Peak Shortage Around 15% All SAARC Countries are Facing Shortage of Power, Except Bhutan

Energy Resource Bhutan and Nepal Have Huge Hydro Potential North East India Have Around 60,000MW Hydro Potential Myanmar Have 7000MW Hydro Potential Near Bangladesh India and Bangladesh Need More and More Power for their Economic Growth, But Both of them facing Shortage of Primary Energy Like Coal, Gas Bangladesh Fully Depends on Gas (77% Power from Gas), 3 Bt Coal reserve and Around 10 TCF Gas So, Bangladesh Needs to Import Power from neighbouring Countries

Regional Cooperation Nepal-India Power Exchange; Bhutan-India power Exchange Bangladesh-India Power Exchange (250MW+250MW) from Baharampur to Bheramara (On Going) Bangladesh-India Power Exchange from Tripura (Proposed) India-Sri Lanka Power Exchange (Planning Stage) Power from Central Asia through Afghanistan-Pakistan-India; Bangladesh-Myanmar Power Exchange

SAARC Energy Cooperation SAARC Power Grid Four-Nation Power Grid SAARC Energy Ring Cross-border Energy Project Multi-lateral discussion, bilateral discussion; Political Challenges

SAARC Energy Cooperation India: regional cooperation through bilateral cooperation Main obstacle was to start India-Bangladesh power Exchange India-Bangladesh-India Power Exchange (develop N-E hydro resources)

Challenges Transforming bilateral Power Exchange into Multi-lateral Four-nation Power Grid (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) Four-nation Power Pool, Power Trading Competition and Low-carbon Development

Political Challenges India should Take the Lead India-Pakistan Energy Exchange Pump Energy from Central Asia and the Middle East SAARC Energy Resources Fall Short of it Requirement; Start Working on Outside SAARC Cooperation by Now

Conclusion Political Leadership Should Find Cooperation Formulae Identify Technical Barriers & Solve Them Legal Framework Efficient Use of Energy Energy Conservation