Monetary Policy Report October 2009. The recovery will take time.

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Presentation transcript:

Monetary Policy Report October 2009

The recovery will take time

The financial markets are functioning better… TED spread, Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Note. The spread is calculated as difference between the three-month interbank rate and the three-month treasury bill. Lehman Brothers Coordinated policy rate cut Lending by central banks

…but still receiving substantial government support Central bank’s balance sheet totals, percent of GDP Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics, Statistics Sweden and the respective central banks %

Recovery from a low level GDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, SCB and the Riksbank Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Confidence increasing Purchasing managers’ index and confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry, seasonally-adjusted index and net figures Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Swedbank Note. Net figures refer to the share of companies who have stated a positive development minus those who have stated deterioration.

Fragile base Retail sale and manufacturing output, index 2005 = 100 Source: Statistics Sweden

Unemployment rising Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, years. % %

Stable underlying inflation CPI and CPIF, annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. % %

Repo rate path A forecast – not a promise Per cent, quarterly averages Greater effects of support measures Confidence strengthened more quickly Phasing out of support measures Higher productivity % Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability.

The recovery will take time