European capacity building initiativeecbi Options for increasing the level of mitigation ambitions in the short term Spencer Thomas, Ph.D Ambassador, Special.

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european capacity building initiativeecbi Options for increasing the level of mitigation ambitions in the short term Spencer Thomas, Ph.D Ambassador, Special Envoy for MEAs Grenada european capacity building initiative initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités ecbi for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations 12/26/20151

european capacity building initiativeecbi Argument Well below 1.5 degrees Celcius: We can do it. 12/26/20152

european capacity building initiativeecbi Impact of 1m SLR UNDP 1300 sq km Caribbean Coastal infrastructure, transport, communication 5 % of Bahamas 21 of 64 airports 35 of 44 ports 149 multi million dollar resorts 12/26/20153

european capacity building initiativeecbi Science Rising emission levels Rising sea levels: 1-2 m 2100 Rising temperatures: 4-5 degree pathway –2 degrees? Cost of inaction and delay 12/26/20154

european capacity building initiativeecbi Emissions gap Real and significant 13-18% : 1990 levels LULUCF credits: % Surplus AAUs: 5-10 % Both : 1-7% Science AOSIS: 45% by 2020 with 2015 peaking 12/26/20155

european capacity building initiativeecbi Achievable? Yes 12/26/20156

european capacity building initiativeecbi 2C vs 1.5C in /26/20157

european capacity building initiativeecbi SLR not stabilized at 2 deg Rohmstorf (2007): Church and White (2011) 12/26/20158

european capacity building initiativeecbi Coral reefs Silverman et al (2009) 12/26/20159

european capacity building initiativeecbi Ocean acidification Lowe et al (2010) 12/26/201510

european capacity building initiativeecbi Annex 1 Reductions: not enough 12/26/201511

european capacity building initiativeecbi Costs factors Economic costs for higher ambition are feasible –OECD, IEA, IIASA estimates Costs of inaction and delay are formidable 12/26/201512

european capacity building initiativeecbi Short term responses Increased levels of ambitions and actions Cap LULUCF credits Remove exceptions No carryover of surplus AAUs The Kyoto protocol 12/26/201513

european capacity building initiativeecbi Responses Renewable energy options are available and feasible Identify and support EE and RE mitigation potential Support expedited uptake of renewables Overcome barriers to deployment 12/26/201514

european capacity building initiativeecbi SIDSDOCK Transformation of the energy sector Technology and finance mechanism for low carbon development By 2030, 50% power needs by renewables 30% cut in importation of fossil fuels 12/26/201515

european capacity building initiativeecbi Unhelpful Agenda fights Bad faith negotiations Delays Conditionalties Unilateralism Focus on voluntarism Pledge and review 12/26/201516

european capacity building initiativeecbi Further Needs Global leadership Cost effective global mitigation potential Enhanced access to international ETS under KP Rio plus 20: new model for development 12/26/201517