Please do not quote or reproduce without permission Conflict Analysis May 17, 2006

The Bank aims at promoting economic growth and poverty reduction through assistance that minimizes potential causes of conflict (Operational Policy on Development Cooperation and Conflict) Sensitivity to conflict in Bank assistance: A need to understand factors that affect conflict when developing strategies, policies and programs Why conflict analysis? Conflict Analysis Framework

Why conflict analysis? Conflict Analysis Framework Increase sensitivity to conflict in strategies, policies and programs  Identify and understand drivers and dynamics of conflict escalation and de-escalation  Understand linkages between conflict and poverty  Basis for strengthened resiliency to conflict escalation via appropriate development strategies and interventions

Quick screening on 9 indicators to determine conflict analysis need Full CAF: analysis of some 30 variables in different socioeconomic categories, adapted to local context Policy recommendations and programmatic implications Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) Conflict Analysis Framework

Six categories of variables: Governance and Political Institutions Human Rights and Security Economic Structure and Performance Natural Resources External Forces Social and Ethnic Relations

Examples of variables used in conflict analysis: ethnic cleavages regional imbalances inclusiveness of political institutions militarization of society economic growth per capita income changes access to natural resources role of diaspora Conflict Analysis Framework

Variables analyzed in local context on: history/changes dynamics/trends public perceptions politicization organization link to poverty effects on conflict escalation and de-escalation Conflict Analysis Framework

Limited or comprehensive design Conducted alone or with partners Discrete analysis or part of wider work Public dissemination or internal use  At the Bank: 14 countries subject to conflict analysis, variety of design and process formats Different CAF Formats Conflict Analysis Framework

Comprehensive stand-alone analyses: Nigeria, Somalia, Sri Lanka Limited stand-alone analyses: CAR, Burundi, Venezuela Limited conflict analysis as part of other work: Chad, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Angola Other macro analyses with attention to conflict: Haiti, West Bank and Gaza Conflict Analysis at the Bank Conflict Analysis Framework

Constraints of time, funding, capacity Security and access during field work Relationship to host government Application of findings and recommendations in operations Challenges in conflict analysis Conflict Analysis Framework

Briefer analyses often sufficient Many benefits from multi-agency analyses Country anchoring important Maintain conflict analysis rigor even when conflict is not main focus Conflict analysis should include operational application of findings and recommendations, not end with dissemination Way forward in conflict analysis

 Based on the analysis: What kind of strategy and interventions would have a positive effect on the conflict situation (i.e. help reduce tension; strengthen country’s resilience to conflict escalation)? What kind of strategy / interventions should we avoid ? Operational implications