Internet on Democratization Samantha Anderson Min Woong Choi Griffin Cohen The Effect Of Prof. Vreeland 15 Oct 2013

Research Question Internet Democratization

Hypothesis Internet growth will the likelihood of democratization in autocratic regimes – Internet facilitates communications, both domestically and internationally Thus, gives “people” more power increase Also: -Democracies should both have more Internet users and Internet growth -In the years prior to democratization, countries should see increasing Internet growth

Arab Spring (2011)

Debate Globalization’s effects on world and politics Open Networks Closed Regimes: The Impact of the Internet on Authoritarian Rule By Shanthi Kalathil & Taylor C. Boas The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall By Ian Bremmer

Democratization (1995 – 2008, data from Prof. Vreeland): 25 Total Nigeria 1999 Taiwan 1996 Niger 2000 Thailand 2008 Kenya 1998 Burundi 2005 *Sierra Leone 1996 Comoros 2004 Pakistan 2008 Kyrgyzstan 2005 Liberia 2006 *Guinea-Bissau 2000 Nepal 2008 Georgia 2004 Senegal 2000 Maldives 2008 Ecuador 2002 Indonesia 1999 Mauritania 2007 Bhutan 2007 *Sierra Leone 1998 Mexico 2000 *Guinea-Bissau 2004 Peru 2001 Serbia and Montenegro 2000

Case Studies Russia Ukraine China North African Countries Tunisia

Methodology Merging Data Sets WDI and Vreeland Democracy Data from Countries transition from Dictatorship to Democracy New Variables Internet Growth per Year Regime Changes Regime Transition Weighted -Year of transition = 3 -1 Year before = 2 -2 Years before = 1 -All others = 0 Number of Aggregate Transitions per Year Statistical Tests: Correlation Regression Fixed Regression Graphs (two-way, quadratic, and simple bar graphs)

Do File: Merging Datasets

Do File: New Variables

Internet and New Variables

Preliminary Results

Internet Users Effect on Democracy

Internet Users Effect on Democracy (Quadratic Fit)

Number of Democratizations per year

Internet Users Growth For World per Year

Internet Growth per Years Before Democratization All Other Years 2 years prior 1 year prior Year of

Effect of Internet Growth Rate on Nearing a Democratization

Effect of Regime type on Internet Growth Rate Dictatorship Democracy

Internet Growth Variable Internet Growth

Effect of Regime type on Number of Internet Users Dictatorship Democracy

Future Research Region-specific analysis Data when Democracies fall and become Dictatorships Control for other variables besides GDP

Implications Effect of Internet on Democratization (If proves robust…) China Globalization Countries looking for Democratization should focus on Internet growth Dictatorships should try to suppress communications and Internet

Comments? Questions?