Changes to household estimates in Blue Book 2015 Household Accounts Development.

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Presentation transcript:

Changes to household estimates in Blue Book 2015 Household Accounts Development

Overview Why do we have revisions? Size of revisions Overview of each methodological change

Why change? ESA 1995 changes to ensure comparability in measuring Gross National Income (GNI) across European Union (EU) countries, and, Other changes to meet user needs.

Annual HHFCE level revisions

Three main drivers of revisions

Change in annual HHFCE growth rates

Exhaustiveness Revisions £, million

Exhaustiveness - Concealed income/ activity Replaces existing National Accounts concealed income/activity model New model based in part on HMRC Tax Gaps data Coherence adjustments are made during balancing to bring this measure into alignment with GDP(P) and GDP(I).

Exhaustiveness - Under-coverage of unincorporated small businesses Enterprises falling below the Value Added Tax (VAT) and/or Pay As You Earn (PAYE) thresholds, are not recorded on the Inter- Departmental Business Register (IDBR). Estimates of missing production by these updated using more recent administrative data provided by HMRC.

NPISH improvements - Revisions £, million

NPISH improvements Review of the potential overlap between NCVO data and existing National Accounts production data from the ABS that has led to a reduction in HHFCE Assessment of the new offsetting revisions used to align the three approaches to measuring GDP in the Supply has brought about a further reduction in HHFCE.

£, million Revisions linked to rental data

Cross Border Property Income Reviewed the recording of imputed rental for UK residents owning second homes abroad and foreign residents owning second homes in the UK. Changes have; Decreased HHFCE via Inward imputed rental Increased HHFCE via Outward imputed rental

Improvements to actual and imputed housing rentals - CPIH Revisions to maintain alignment in annual growth with CPIH CPIH - a measure of consumer price inflation that includes Owner Occupiers’ Housing costs (OOH).

Revisions due to Narcotic Drugs, Alcohol & Tobacco £, million

Alcohol/Tobacco & Illegal Drugs Removal of adjustments affecting; COICOP 02.1, Alcohol, and COICOP 02.2, Tobacco. Narcotics data, COICOP 2.3, introduced for the first time in Blue Book 2014 Correction in BB15 converting dollars to sterling for growth in street prices of narcotics

Other revisions £, million

Any questions?