Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure Estimates for Scotland Kenny Grant

Overview GDP(E) –Households –Non-Profit Institutions –General Government –Gross Capital Formation HHFCE contributes > 60% towards GDP(E) Consumer Trends –Current prices, Chained volume measure, Implied deflators –Unadjusted and adjusted for seasonality –Yearly –Quarterly –12 COICOP categories + Net Tourism

Sources Expenditure & Food Survey –Yearly publication from ONS –Scottish and UK expenditure –>280 individual recordings of expenditure –3 year moving average –2002/03 – 2004/05, 2007 –FES 1998/99, 1999/00

Sources Current Prices Not Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Data 12 COICOP + Net Tourism Consumer Trends Household Figures Scottish Mid-Year Estimates/Projections - GRO UK Mid-Year Estimates/Projections - Communities.gov.uk

Assumptions Scottish % Hotels & Catering used to apportion UK Net Tourism Expenditure for Scotland Difference in EFS and National Accounts breakdown from COICOP beyond top 12 –Imputed Rental (4. Housing) –Life Insurance(12. Miscellaneous)

Methodology EFS financial year series created from 1998/99 to 2007/08 –Scotland and UK –12 COICOP level Scottish household proportions for each year for each COICOP = Scottish average weekly expenditure X # Scottish Households Divided by UK equivalent = Scottish % of UK HHFCE

Methodology Convert financial year Scottish Proportions to a quarterly series –Cubic Splines UK National Accounts data X Scottish % of UK expenditure = Quarterly Scottish HHFCE –(Not Seasonally Adjusted) Seasonally adjusted series –X-12-ARIMA –Comparable series to UK national Accounts –All series showed signs of seasonality and were adjusted (except Education)

Results Series of 6 tables –Scottish HHFCE –UK HHFCE –Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE –Scottish HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted) –UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted) –Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted) –Calendar year –Financial year –Quarterly

Future Work Updates –Quarterly National Accounts (Consumer Trends) –EFS –Household Estimates/Projections COICOP Breakdown –Individual goods and services –Imputed Rentals / Life Insurance Net Tourism

Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure Estimates for Scotland Kenny Grant