Food [feed and fiber] subgroup ARB Expert Workgroup on LCFS Michael O’Hare, chair Seth Meyer John Sheehan Blake Simmons James Duffy, ARB staff 5/X/2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Food [feed and fiber] subgroup ARB Expert Workgroup on LCFS Michael O’Hare, chair Seth Meyer John Sheehan Blake Simmons James Duffy, ARB staff 5/X/2010

Characterizing FFF effects of biofuel expansion More/better estimates of – Agricultural commodity and fossil fuel price changes – Agricultural commodity (non-fuel use) consumption changes – Decomposition of effects reducing LUC from ha/ha equivalence – (if possible) allocate food consumption changes to low-income populations and others – Include “food-constant” experiment in new GTAP estimates – Feedback to FFF prices from fossil fuel price changes owing to biofuel substitution

Model comparison Compare FFF and fossil fuel price estimates from various economic/agricultural models (GTAP, FAPRI, IMPACT, MIRAGE, etc.) for – Consistency – Possibility of empirical verification – Uncertainty in estimates

[Not unanimous group view] Explore options to include FFF effects in LCFS implementation