Linda Davies – Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London Sheate B.(Imperial), Wade R.(Abertay), Scholes L.(Middlesex), Gaston K.(Sheffield), Batty M.(UCL), Grimmond S.(King’s), Harris J.(Cranfield), Beck H.(CABE Space), Kwiatkowski L.(Imperial), Metcalfe R.(Oxford)

2 Phase 1 – Evolving Conceptual Framework issues Biodiversity Goods Values Human wellbeing Future Scenarios for the UK Ecosystems Ecosystem services Drivers of Change Environmental change (e.g. rainfall, sea level) Trends (e.g. markets, preferences, demographic) Policies

3 Avoiding double accounting – adapted from Fisher et al 2008 Physical and chemical inputsPeople Clean water provision Food production Water regulation Trees Final ecosystem services Other capital inputs Drinking water Cereals, meat, etc. Flood protection Timber Goods/Benefits £ £ £ £ Value of goods... £ £ £ £...of which ES value Primary and intermediate processes Pollination Nutrient cycling Soil Formation Primary production Biomass Biodiversity

4 Ecosystem type, services and examples of goods

5 Valuation of goods and ecosystem services Primary production Decomposition Soil formation Nutrient cycling Water cycling Weathering Climate regulation Pollination Evolutionary processes Ecological interactions Crops, livestock, fisheries Water availability Trees Peat Wild species diversity Drinking water Food Fibre Energy Natural medicine £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ Final ecosystem services Goods/Benefits Value of goods... …ES value Primary and intermediate processes Physical and chemical inputs People Other capital inputs Natural enemies Detoxification Local climate Waste breakdown Purified water Stabilising vegetation Meaningful places Wild species diversity Unknown services Flood control Equable climate Disease control Pollution control Erosion control Unknown Good health

6 List of Change Measures Environmental change Climate change (temperature, precipitation) Sea level Trends Land use / land cover Species introduction / removal External inputs (pollution emissions, fertiliser inputs) Harvest / resource use Demographic (population growth, demographic change, ethnicity, migration) Technology adaptation (agricultural prices, market forces??) Policies Government subsidy levels Pollution control legislation

Defining the Urban Environment Identified need to use more detailed urban land classifications than those present in Land cover maps The use of Office of National Statistics urban area definitions and corresponding area boundaries is proposed – related to population size Urban assessment will include recognition of scale: 84% population of England live in urban areas (50m) Country and regional differences Small cities (<50,000) Medium cities (50, ,000) Large cities (>250,000)

Sub-urban habitat classes Natural and semi- natural urban green space Public parks and gardens Green corridors Outdoor sports facilities Amenity green space Allotments, community gardens and urban farms Cemeteries and churchyards Street trees Brownfield land (inc. domestic gardens) Water (natural)Water (artificial)Green belt Classes were grouped with reference to Planning Policy Guidance 17 and the provision of ecosystem services and goods Green belt important as peri-urban mixed habitat

Goods from the urban habitat Cultural services Recreation (inc. exercise), aesthetics, tourism, cultural heritage, education, promotion of social cohesion and reduced crime Regulatory services Flood protection, clean air and water, equable climate, noise reduction, erosion control, waste management Provisional services Food, fibre, drinking water Multi-functionality of open spaces: Gardens, allotments (16/16) v Brownfield (5/16)

Services from the Urban habitat Primary services Primary production Nutrient cycling Soil formation Water cycling Intermediate services Climate regulation Pollution regulation Pollination Ecological interactions Final services Crops, fisheries Green waste Water quantity Purified water Trees Water availability Detoxification Local climate Stabilising vegetation and habitats Noise regulation Waste breakdown Meaningful places Wild species diversity

Trends in sub-urban habitats Difficult to interpret temporal and spatial trends due to lack of detailed national mapping and inconsistencies in typology, data collection and accessibility at the local and regional level. However, good scope for case studies Specific areas of interest: Allotments: over the last 50 years – declined by 90% SO 2 down, NO 2,PM10 exceed health standards, Ozone up Greenbelt : new housing at rate of 2% per annum Urban street trees - decline in tree planting over last decade and deterioration in inner city tree health The decline in extent of private gardens and associated biodiversity Biodiversity: decline in high density areas Impact of increasing extent of non-permeable surfaces Extent and trends in brownfield ?

Drivers of change Climate: increase in summer temperatures incr. heat island effect, limited cooling space and surfaces Extreme conditions (rainfall) more likely Eutrophication – frequent, abundant lichens in London are all nitrophytes, 50 years ago all acidophytes - affects biodiversity and community st. Population increase – more housing on brownfield, more fragmentation, less soil, lower biodiversity Some positive signs - transport successes

Sustainable management Knowledge gaps Multi-functional space, SUDs, tree strategy Better use of brownfield No inventory of urban green space: land classification datasets are disparate, lack harmonisation, of poor resolution Typology Very limited knowledge of urban biodiversity and its importance to human health Poor knowledge of gardens – surfaces and biodiversity

Where do we go from here? Potential scenarios: Ecosystem services from Brownfield and Green Belt Permeable services (e.g. benefits from various policies, surfaces, i.e.. restricting front garden conversion to parking) River Brent restoration study Barnes Wetland (species, water quality, public perception) Temp increase under different % land cover (trees, ) Thames gateway as a site for scenario testing – land use data Where is the desired focus?