The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet Year Four: Ten Years ( )/ Ten Trends Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D. Director, The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg Microsoft August 27, 2004 Redmond, WA

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Ten Years ( )/Ten Trends  1994 the beginning of the popular Internet (1969 beginning of ARPANET)  AOL offered Internet access as a additional feature of walled-garden service  Netscape browser first appeared

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Lost Research Opportunity A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in 1948 could have found –Where the time for television came from –How it affected … consumer behavior, connection to the civic process, desire to travel, career goals and much else

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 We are undertaking the study of the Internet that should have been conducted on television in the late 1940s

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Countries and Regions in Current Comparisons  United States  Singapore  Italy  Sweden  Japan  Taiwan  Great Britain  India  Iran  Australia  Bolivia  Hong Kong  Mainland China*  Macao  South Korea  Germany  Hungary  Spain  Chile  Argentina  Brazil  Philipines  Portugual  Africa about to join

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend #1 The Digital Divide is closing (but not yet closed)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Internet Use Continues to Grow  Household access over 60%  Hours per week at 12.5  Growth in hours/years of experience  Gap between new and experienced users narrowing  Gender and income gap narrowing

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Hours online from any location (Year to Year) Weihuaextra (W-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Number of hours online at any location by years of experience Weihuaextra (W-2)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Percent of Males and Females Who Use the Internet Stage 4 – Usenet x Gender ( )

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How many hours per week do you use the Internet for…? Q710 (B-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend # 2 Broadband Changes Everything

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How do you connect to the Internet? (Year to Year) Q360 (P-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Broadband Changes Everything Bigger gap between dial-up and broadband than between non-user and dial-up Dial-up is disruptive — broadband integrative Broadband determines how often people log on, how long they stay on, what they do online and where they log on from Broadband predicts purchasing behavior and overall relationship to Internet

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Broadband vs. Dial-up Broadband users on 17.3 hours a week vs for dialup Dial-up users on 2-4 times a day, broadband Broadband users do more of everything except using medical information and distance learning

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 The Future of Broadband Most users expect to be on broadband Broadband users leading effort in WiFi and networks Broadband users spend more on all electronics and also on on-line buying Early broadband users are innovators across many areas

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend #3 Media use (especially television) has shown profound change

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Offline Media Use Continues to Change  Television dispacement changing  Newspaper and magazine use drops for second year  Book use declining slightly for first time  Radio and home film watching remains stable  Age makes enormous difference

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Average Hours per Week Spent Watching Television: Users vs. Non-Users HTV x Usenet – 7 extra questions ( ) BritainChile (Santiago) GermanyHungaryJapanKoreaMacaoSingaporeSwedenTaiwanUSA Number of Hours UsersNon-users

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE? (Use) Q690 (K-4)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE? (Age) Q690 (K-5)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Online Media making a Real Impact  Online newspaper readership rising  Magazine and radio use climbing  Online books, telephone and television use still very low  Online game use very high, but drops slightly in 4 th year  For young, some online media use VERY high

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online? (Year to Year) Q700 (K-2)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online? (Age) Q700 (K-4)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend #4 Internet is the most important source of information (for Internet users)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Internet #1 Information Source  First place people go to for information  Broadband greatly accelerates this process  Want access to Internet everywhere  Growth is in information, not entertainment

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How important is the Internet as a source of information? (Connection) Q530a (P-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend # 5 Reliability and credibility of media varies greatly based on source and in different countries

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Reliability and Credibility of Media  Continuing to drop—a healthy trend  Credibility high in much of the world  Trust in information varies widely depending on familiarity with the source

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How much of the information on the World Wide Web overall do you think is reliable and accurate? (Year to Year) (Users) Q160 (M-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Information on the Internet: Is it Reliable and Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above) Stage 5 – RELIA x Usenet ( )

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How much of the information on the World Wide Web sites that you visit regularly do you think is reliable and accurate? Q170 (M-2)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How reliable and accurate are: News Pages posted by Established Media Q173-1 (M-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How reliable and accurate are: Government Websites Q173-3 (M-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How reliable and accurate are: Information Pages posted by Individuals Q173-2 (M-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend #6 Online buying increasing substantially and piracy starting to decline

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 In an average year, how many times do you purchase products or services over the Internet? (Adult purchasers) Q780 (W-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Downloading “Free” Content 41% of new users use P2P such as Kazaa 62% of experienced users use P2P 14% of Internet users have at least 100 free downloaded pieces of content

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Attitudes Toward Dowloading 94% of users believe taking a CD from a record store is wrong in all instances 36% believe that “taking” the same content from the Internet is wrong in all instances Little change from 2000 through early 2003

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Change in For the first time there seems to be a significant crack in the unwillingness to pay for “any” digital content. The arguments that artists deserve fair pay or the costs of a record company never carried any weight and still do not. What seems to have changes is the available of “fair” services (i-tunes) and subpoenas.

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Differences between Music and Movies Among those under 30, significant belief that CDs are “over-priced” and that unfair to buy entire CD for “one” song. Same group feels DVDs (movies) are fairly priced and you “get more than you pay for” with extras.

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend #7 Fears about privacy and security are still extremely high, but no longer are a barrier to buying

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Privacy and Security Fears  Overall still at very high levels  Shift from extremely concerned to somewhat concerned  Users do not have to see their fears disappear, buying in spite of fear  Internet users buying earlier, less lag time

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How concerned would you be about the security of your credit card information when or if you ever bought something online? (Experience) Q830 (W-3)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How concerned would you be about the security of your credit card information when or if you ever bought something online? (Purchase Frequency) Q830 (W-6)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend #8 You do not become a “Geek” (or stay one) when you go online

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Online world is not filled with Geeks and Nerds  You do not put your social life at risk when you go online  Users get 1 hour less sleep per week and exercise a bit more  Users spend same amount of time with family and more time with friends  Users less alienated, lonely and more confident

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend #9 Parents losing some of their enthusiasm for the Internet and more likely to equate it with television

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Parents losing some of their enthusiasm  Believe their children are at great risk (but also that it is important to be online)  More likely to feel children spend too much time online and to punish by denying Internet  Less likely to believe that Internet will help their children’s grades in school

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Does anyone under 18 in your household get punished by being denied access to…? Q1070 (W-3)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How important is the Internet for your schoolwork? Would you say it is… Q1135 (E-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 In your opinion, have the grades of those under 18 in your household improved or declined since your household started using the Internet? Q1080 (W-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Trend #10 E-nuff Already

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Some Signs of a Slowdown  Those who expect to go online dropping  Some drop off the net (but most expect to return)  Suggestions of and information overload: “E-nuff already.” No clear e- mail etiquette

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How likely will you be to use the Internet within the next year? Q610 (MW-2)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Do you think that you will ever go back to using the Internet? Q620 (M-1)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 How quickly should one reply to a personal message? (Experience) Q263 (E-2)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Overall, do you think that new communications technologies such as the Internet, cell phones, and pagers have made the world a better place, a worse place, or neither better nor worse? (Non-users) Q180 (M-3)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Overall, do you think that new communications technologies such as the Internet, cell phones, and pagers have made the world a better place, a worse place, or neither better nor worse? (Users) Q180 (M-2)

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Ten Internet Trends  1. The Digital Divide is closing (but not yet closed.  2. Broadband changes everything  3. Media use (especially television) has shown profound change  4. Internet is the most important source of information (for Internet users)  5. Reliability and credibility of media varies greatly based on source and in different countries

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 Ten Internet Trends  6. Online buying increasing substantially and piracy starting to decline  7. Fears about privacy and security are still extremely high, but no longer are a barrier to buying  8. You do not become a “Geek” (or stay one) when you go online  9. Parents losing some of their enthusiasm for the Internet and more likely to equate it with television  10. E-nuff Already

The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004 Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future “Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004 CONTACT INFORMATION Web: Phone: (213)