More than Polar Bears The Human Impact of Climate Change Mark Fried Oxfam Canada April 2009

Laila Begum, Bangladesh “20 or 30 years ago we could understand from the water temperature and the wind direction if the flood was going to come... Before it was mostly monsoon flooding in July or August, but now the rains are continuing into October”

Disasters in 2007 Africa: biggest floods in three decades, affecting 23 countries and 2 million people Nepal, India and Bangladesh: worst flooding in living memory, affecting 248 million people C.A., Mexico and Caribbean: two category 5 hurricanes plus several tropical storms, affecting 1.5 million people

Numbers of reported disasters UN ISDR in Disaster Risk Reduction, 2007 Global Overview

Expected climate impacts in agricultural communities: Higher temperatures Less rainfall More erratic rainfall Heavier rain More flash floods Less fresh groundwater Loss of vegetation More hurricanes and storms

Women produce much of the family’s food on marginal lands without irrigation using saved seeds with no formal training without access to credit

They provide the household water In rural areas, women and girls walk on average six kilometres every day, carrying up to 20 litres of water

And the household fuel supply

They cook, clean and care for the sick

…all the while caring for children …and for no payment.

The impacts of climate change call for… 1. Mitigation: cut global emissions to stay far below 2 o C of global warming 2. Adaptation: build people’s resilience to now-unavoidable impacts

What’s needed for mitigation? Massive emissions cuts in rich countries 40% below 1990 by % below 1990 by 2050 Lower emissions in poor countries supported by technology, financing and capacity-building

Where they stand in UN negotiations EU: binding 20% below 1990 by 2020; 30% if global deal US: voluntary 0% below 1990 Canada: 20% below 2006 by 2020 = 2% above 1990 levels G77/China: rich countries cut first and most Small Island States: rich must cut 40% below 1990 by 2020

Comparing facts on key countries in 2003 (most recent comparable data) USChinaEUIndiaCanada % of world’s CO 2 emissions 22%17%15%4%2.3% % of world population 5%21%7%17%0.45%

Per Capita CO 2 emissions CountryPopulation (millions) Total Emissions (million tons) Per capita emissions (tons) Canada US2915, EU4564, China1, India1,0601,

Greenhouse Gases Per Capita

Canada uses 9 planets worth

Cumulative Emissions 23 richest countries (14% of global population) responsible for 60% of accumulated emissions China (20% of global population) just 8% of emissions currently in atmosphere

How can we reduce GHG emissions? Put a price on carbon Carbon Trading OR Carbon Tax $50 rising to $75 per ton State/provincial plan price is $3.60 Europe was €31, now €9 ($15) Mandate most reductions be domestic, rather than bought in poor countries

What is adaptation? Development as usual Building adaptive capacity Climate-proofing investments Impact- specific response

What will adaptation cost for all developing countries? Oxfam: $50bn + per year If that seems high… UNFCCC $28-67bn per year (2030) UNDP$86bn per year (2015)

Where will the money come from? From general tax revenue Dependent yearly on political will From tax on carbon offsets Not likely to generate enough From % of auction of carbon rights Best bet

Who should pay? UNFCCC Treaty says countries should contribute on the basis of their… “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” Oxfam’s Adaptation Financing Index: Responsibility: CO 2 emissions since 1992 Capability: HDI score To achieve fairness and simplicity

How much from which countries? USEUJapanCanadaAustraliaKorea 44%32%13%4%3%2% TOTAL for these six countries: 98% of total cost

Canada’s fair contribution to financing adaptation 4.3% of a total cost of $50 billion annually $2.15 billion each year $72 per year per Canadian = $1.40/week = a cup of coffee a week

For more information: