MINEDUC-UNICEF STUDY, PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS JRES, 12 TH NOVEMBER 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE COSTS OF PRE- PRIMARY EDUATION IN RWANDA

PRE-PRIMARY BUDGET 2015/16 REB Budget, 2015/16Amount, RwF Curriculum and Pedagogical Materials Pre-primary books50,000,000 Education Quality and Standards Pre-primary inspections3,500,000 Construction pre-primary (300 classrooms)1,130,322,858 REB Total1,183,822,858 Extra budget (curriculum and pedagogical materials), UNICEF 786,530,015 Total1,970,352,873 % of education budget on pre-primary0.9%

BUDGETARY PRIORITIES Teacher salaries Construction Capitation grants Note : Results from stakeholder consultation with DEOs, head teachers, parents

COSTING: 3 PACKAGES Basic PackageEnhanced PackageFull Package Teacher salaries (A2) Capitation grants (4,250 RwF) Construction Investment in quality Teacher salaries (A2) Capitation grants (4,250 RwF) Construction Investment in quality ECE caregiver assistants salaries Vulnerable fund Special needs education fund Teacher salaries (A2) Capitation grants (4,250 RwF) Construction Investment in quality ECE caregiver assistants salaries Vulnerable fund Special needs education fund School Feeding

TARGETING PRIORITY DISTRICTS RankDistrictRankDistrict 1Gisagara11Nyagatare 2Rutsiro12Gatsibo 3Nyamasheke 4Nyaruguru13Karongi 5Ngoma14Ruhango 6Burera15Bugesera 7Nyabihu 8Kirehe 9Gicumbi 10Ngororero Note: Targeting combines poverty levels and educational need: Poverty rates (EICV 4) – weighting of 40%; District level GERs (MINEDUC) – weighting of 60% Investment in 10, 12 and 15 districts are costed throughout. All 15 districts are part of the GPE-monitored group of 22 districts

COSTING METHODOLOGY Number of children aged 3-6 in each district (real need) Benchmark of 50% used – ie. meet needs of 50% of 3-6 year olds in selected districts Construction schedule of classrooms for each year (over 3 year period) to meet this benchmark in selected districts Assumption of double-shifting for pre-primary level applied: 80 children per classroom/40 per session

COSTING THE 3 PACKAGES: A 3 YEAR INVESTMENT Districts2015/16 [Amount; % of budget] 2016/172017/18 Basic Package 10 priority districts7.4bn (3.4%)8.3bn9.4bn 12 priority districts9.1bn (4.2%)10.2bn11.6bn 15 priority districts10.9bn (5%)12.3bn14bn Enhanced Package 10 priority districts7.7bn (3.6%)8.9bn10.2bn 12 priority districts9.4bn (4.4%)10.8bn12.5bn 15 priority districts11.3 (5.2%)13.1bn15.1bn Full Package 10 priority districts8bn (3.7%)9.6bn11.4bn 12 priority districts9.7bn (4.5%)11.7bn14bn 15 priority districts11.7bn (5.4%)14.2bn16.9bn

LEVEL OF INVESTMENT NEEDED TO MEET GPE TARGETS Current national pre-primary GER: 12.7% (corrected) GPE target is 17% (2017) in 22 districts (baseline: 7.9%, 2014) Payment by results means just under US$8m dependent on meeting this target Investment in 15 districts: enrolment across 22 would reach 18% (enrolment across 15 would reach 27%) Investment in 12 districts: enrolment across 22 would reach 16.7%

EXTRA SLIDES FOR REFERENCE ONLY

COSTS BORNE BY FAMILIES TO ACCESS PRE-PRIMARY Types of cost: school fees, uniforms, school materials, porridge Impact: Exclusion of poorest (and drop out) + reduced demand Teacher retention, motivation problems - impact on quality and wasted investments in teacher training Lack of ‘institutionalisation’ of the pre-primary system Costs per year for pre-primary ItemCosts reported (low) Costs reported (middle) Costs reported (high) School Fees4,50015,000-27,00054,000 Total16,000-26,60043,000-70,000100, ,500

COSTING OF THE 3 PACKAGES: 2.5 YEAR INVESTMENT Districts2015/16 (mid-year)2016/172017/18 Basic Package 10 priority districts3.9bn9.5bn11bn 12 priority districts4.8bn11.8bn13.6bn 15 priority districts5.7bn14.2bn16.4bn Enhanced Package 10 priority districts4.2bn10bn11.7bn 12 priority districts5bn12.2bn14.3bn 15 priority districts6bn14.8bn17.4bn Full Package 10 priority districts4.3bn10.4bn12.7bn 12 priority districts5.1bn12.8bn15.7bn 15 priority districts6.1bn15.5bn18.9bn

ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IN CONTEXT OF ENROLMENT PROJECTIONS (2) Note: These estimates are based on the 2.5 year investment, starting mid-year 15/16 The 2017 GER is just giving the figure mid-way between 2 figures given for the FYs. Only the investment in 15 districts achieves the GPE target (where 22 districts progress is measured) Isolating the districts for investment (rather than the full 22) shows much better progress of course Waiting to start a 3 year investment in 2016/17 is not an option. District investmentEstimate GER across 22 GPE districts 2016/17 Estimate GER across 22 GPE districts – end of 2017 Estimate GER across 22 GPE districts 2017/18 10 priority districts priority districts priority districts For comparative purposes only: Estimate GER across 15 priority districts only, 2016/17 Estimate GER across 15 priority districts only, end of 2017 Estimate GER across 15 priority districts only, 2017/18 15 priority districts