SHORT-TERM STATISTICS Eurostat D3 The introduction of base year 2005 and NACE Rev. 2 in STS OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Working Party (STESWP) June 2007 Report on progress since the 2006 STESWP meeting

STSSTS Eurostat D3 Introduction base year 2005 & NACE 2 in STS STS WG Dec-07: mandate to TF STS WG Dec-07: mandate to TF Task Force “STS Backcasting” Task Force “STS Backcasting” 1st meeting 26 April 20071st meeting 26 April 2007 participants from 10 Member States and OECDparticipants from 10 Member States and OECD discussion on estimation of 2005 weights according to new NACE and backcastingdiscussion on estimation of 2005 weights according to new NACE and backcasting

STSSTS Eurostat D3 Main TF conclusions Main TF conclusions Weights 2005 according to NACE 2Weights 2005 according to NACE 2 Problems appear to be more or less solvable (most to rely on dual coded register) Problems appear to be more or less solvable (most to rely on dual coded register) Provisional weights in time (June 2008) Provisional weights in time (June 2008) Some countries may wish to revise weights around 2010 Some countries may wish to revise weights around 2010 Backcasting of STS time seriesBackcasting of STS time series Countries less advanced – priority so far on rebasing Countries less advanced – priority so far on rebasing More attention needed in 2008 More attention needed in 2008 Introduction base year 2005 & NACE 2 in STS

STSSTS Eurostat D3 Main TF conclusions (cont.) Main TF conclusions (cont.) Countries who have not started yet their preparations are urged to do so!Countries who have not started yet their preparations are urged to do so! STS statisticians should co-ordinate themselves with experts from related domains and from horizontal groups (Structure Statistics, registers, IT, etc.)STS statisticians should co-ordinate themselves with experts from related domains and from horizontal groups (Structure Statistics, registers, IT, etc.) Gaining experience from non EU countries could help Gaining experience from non EU countries could help STESWP group the main opportunity for thisSTESWP group the main opportunity for this Introduction base year 2005 & NACE 2 in STS

STSSTS Eurostat D3 Choice of backcasting method:Choice of backcasting method: Macro versus micro method? Macro versus micro method? Criteria: quality, resources (time, skills, access to data, financial) Criteria: quality, resources (time, skills, access to data, financial) Little use of benchmarking/interpolation techniques Little use of benchmarking/interpolation techniques  Macro and micro method! Backcasting issues to resolve

STSSTS Eurostat D3 Length of the backcast time seriesLength of the backcast time series Users need to maintain current length of time series Users need to maintain current length of time series Target time horizon minimum 2000 for backcasting STS Target time horizon minimum 2000 for backcasting STS Longer backcasting for higher level aggregates Longer backcasting for higher level aggregates Trade-off between length and quality: which approach? Trade-off between length and quality: which approach?  NSO are best placed to carry out this job! Backcasting issues to resolve

STSSTS Eurostat D3 Past base years & linking of series Past base years & linking of series Most will calculate conversion coefficients for 2005 onlyMost will calculate conversion coefficients for 2005 only Can the introduction of past base years’ weights improve the quality of our backcasting results?Can the introduction of past base years’ weights improve the quality of our backcasting results? Is linking an issue?Is linking an issue? Gaps in data availability Gaps in data availability Some (few) activities were not or not sufficiently covered under the old classificationSome (few) activities were not or not sufficiently covered under the old classification  Need to identify cases, assess importance, develop solutions! Backcasting issues to resolve

STSSTS Eurostat D3 Next steps Next steps Eurostat manual on backcasting to become available soonEurostat manual on backcasting to become available soon 2nd meeting of TF “STS Backcasting” in October 20072nd meeting of TF “STS Backcasting” in October 2007 focus on backcasting focus on backcasting TF work continues through 2008 TF work continues through 2008 STS WG in December 2007STS WG in December 2007 draft Commission Regulation on backcasting draft Commission Regulation on backcasting Introduction base year 2005 & NACE 2 in STS

STSSTS Eurostat D3 STESWP members experience with deriving concordance matrices from dual coded registers?STESWP members experience with deriving concordance matrices from dual coded registers? Comparability with those generated from micro data?Comparability with those generated from micro data? Problem areas / biases that are likely to occur?Problem areas / biases that are likely to occur? Reweighting past base years with concordance matrix and linkingReweighting past base years with concordance matrix and linking How to identify weak points in the concordance matrix and adjust these back in timeHow to identify weak points in the concordance matrix and adjust these back in time Which points in time would adjustments be made (e.g. at base years?)Which points in time would adjustments be made (e.g. at base years?) What does this imply for linkingWhat does this imply for linking Do STESWP members have experience in producing longer time series for higher level aggregates?Do STESWP members have experience in producing longer time series for higher level aggregates? What level of aggregates are produced (e.g. 1 digit, 2 digit)What level of aggregates are produced (e.g. 1 digit, 2 digit) Issues for discussion