PLUg-in Electric Vehicles Readiness: Rating Cities in the United States ***All graphs are from the Annual Energy Review, 2012 unless otherwise cited***   Celeste Wanner, Kyle Clark-Sutton, Saba Siddiki, John Rupp*, Sanya Carley, John Graham School of Public and environmental Affairs Indiana University

Organization Introduction Research design & analysis Results Conclusions

Introduction Consumer interest in PEVs is not yet high enough to meet manufacturer production goals or policy goals for EV adoption set by the federal government and ZEV states This study examines additional municipal, along with their respective state measures that could stimulate consumer interest in EVs Understand how cities compare across the country

Incentives to EV deployment Goal: Accelerate the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) Objectives: Offer a suite of benefits to owners and operators of PEVs, including financial incentives and infrastructure perks How: “hard” and “soft policies supporting PEVs, infrastructure, and operation Whose policies: Municipalities but, also how they interact with state policies All influenced the same by federal policies, therefore not considered Who are the purchasers: include individuals, businesses, and municipal government entities

Examples of Incentives Municipal policies can include: Special parking privileges, especially in congested areas City-subsidized charging stations Streamlined permit procedures for installing a home charging station State policies can include: HOV-lane access State-level tax credits and rebates for purchase of PEVs or charging equipment Structure of electricity pricing Other reduced fees, such as vehicle registration or inspection fees

Creating an index of “readiness” Built an index that identifies and ranks the “readiness” of 36 major U.S. cities for integration of PEVs into the transportation sector Readiness is the degree to which a city supports the adoption of electric vehicles Municipalities were ranked based on how they scored in the index

Challenges to analysis Policies of cities (and the states in which they are located) are by no means uniform, complicating the development of an index Interaction of policies (fed, state, muni) Dynamic terrain: polices are coming and going as well as changing through time Changing price of petroleum…

Background – ZEV program California enacted a zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) requirement for vehicle manufacturers doing business in the state Congress has permitted other states to enact a program identical to the CA ZEV program 9 states have adopted the ZEV program: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont 8 of these have further signed an MOU to promote ZEVs 2 adopted but then repealed ZEV: Arizona, New Mexico 3 considered but did not adopt: Colorado, Utah and Illinois

Research goals Develop a preliminary scoring methodology for comparing cities’ PEV readiness Answer the question: Does participation in the ZEV program have a meaningful impact on EV readiness in cities assessed?

Research Design Approach to rating cities was constructed from the perspective of a potential new car buyer considering a PEV Identified 16 variables related to consumer interest in PEVs (variables that can vary by city or by state, and therefore cities in different states) Selected 25 largest cities by population, plus largest cities in ZEV states, as well as 5 other large cities included in other major PEV studies Cities represent ripe markets for PEV adoption 36 cities in 25 states The rationale for city selection was to rate cities that have strong potential for growth in EV adoption due to demographics, density, population, etc. This was not an attempt to create a “Top 36 Cities for EV Adoption,” though the scoring methodology, once refined, could be applied to a large number of cities to produce just such a ranking.

Location of cities and ZEV states

Research Design/Analysis Two scoring systems Simple scoring system Transforms variables into dichotomous variables and weights each equally Weighted scoring system Extra weight added to variables recommended as best practices or that have been demonstrated to have significant impact on PEV sales

Index Variables: Financial Incentives Description Rationale Hard Incentives Consumer Purchase Incentives Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for consumers to purchase a PEV Purchase incentives bring down the upfront costs of PEVs to be more competitive with traditional vehicles Public/Private Purchase Incentives Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for businesses or government entities to purchase a PEV Consumer EVSE incentives Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for consumers to purchase and/or install EVSE Public/Private EVSE Incentives Whether the city or state offers a tax credit or rebate for businesses or government entities to purchase and/or install EVSE Time of Use/Special PEV Electricity Pricing Whether the main utility in the city offers TOU pricing (unrelated to PEV ownership) or a specific PEV charging rate to PEV owners Low electricity prices for overnight PEV charging decreases costs to consumer Reduced fees Whether a PEV is afforded special consideration with regard to registration fees, vehicle tax, or sales and use tax Decreased costs for PEV driver

Non-financial incentives Soft Incentives Charging stations per capita Total number of level 1, level 2, and DC fast chargers in the city (as of February 2015) per capita   Access to more chargers reduces range anxiety HOV lane access Whether the state affords special HOV access to PEV owners HOV lane access reduces commuting time for PEV drivers in cities with high congestion problems EVSE Permitting Whether the city has streamlined the permitting process for installing EV Supply Equipment Speeding up the process to have the proper wiring and charger installed in a consumer's home or business Parking Privileges Whether the city offers free, reduced cost, or reserved parking for PEV owners Free or dedicated parking can save PEV drivers time and money

Additional Index Variables Fuel Cost Environment Gas Price April 2015 prices Higher gas prices may make EVs more attractive to consumers Electricity Price 2013 electricity price for the main utility in the city Lower electricity prices may make EVs more attractive to consumers Special Fleet Programs Municipal Fleet Whether the local government has made efforts to integrate PEVs into municipal fleets ("Lead by example") Cities that are leading by example help demonstrate the benefits of EVs to citizens EV Car Sharing Service Whether an electric vehicle car sharing service is offered in the city EV car sharing offers more opportunities for residents to experience PEVs, and it is indicative of the general attitude towards PEVs Additional Indicators   Clean Cities Coalition Whether a Clean Cities Coalition exists in the city Clean Cities coalitions assist in the promotion of PEVs in their communities Tesla Direct Sale Whether Tesla is allowed to sell directly to consumers in the state. This is considered an indicator of the general attitude towards PEVs in the state

Results Simple and weighted scoring results were similar, with little movement in the rankings Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient test – No statistically significant difference between two scoring approaches. Spearman’s ρ (rho) = 0.9364 p-value = .0000

Significance (p-value) Results A t-test (comparison test) was applied under both scoring conditions to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between scores for cities in ZEV states vs. non-ZEV states. No statistically significant difference between ZEV and non-ZEV Simple Scoring Weighted Scoring ZEV Mean 8.69 ± 0.98 12.46 ± 1.65 Non-ZEV Mean 7.17 ± 0.54 10.26 ±1.02 t = -1.47 -1.20 Significance (p-value) 0.15 0.24

How they ranked:

Simple Score by Category = ZEV states

Conclusions Cities, and their states, differ considerably in how ready they are for PEVs Location of a city in a ZEV state is a weak indication of municipal readiness for PEV adoption

Conclusions cont. Not all ZEV states are implementing the policies that are needed to spur PEV adoption. Recently, some states have enacted higher fees on the registration of PEVs, on the stated rationale that EVs do not pay fuel taxes to support road construction and repair. Others are adding (Connecticut) or removing (Georgia) monetary incentives. ZEV states opting in or out Proactive policies are especially important in the current climate of lower oil prices Lack of proactive policies will make achieving EV adoption goals, ZEV mandates, and climate change mitigation goals much more difficult…in both states and cities The main reason to make this point is that the study was done on shifting ground; in 6 months the index may tell a different story.

Conclusions cont. High level of interactivity required between state and municipal policies For municipal policies to be both effective and efficient, they need to be coordinated with state-level policies States influence city-level policy through: Funding support for local PEV-supportive policies Encouraging and coordinating polices Assisting in implementation Municipal policies need to be coordinated with the policies of electric utilities and the commercial structures that service residents of the city and surrounding communities

Questions?

Additional Resources International Council on Clean Transportation. “Assessment of leading electric vehicle promotion activities in United States cities.” Available at http://www.theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle- activities. Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC). 2015a. Electric vehicle charging station locations. U.S. Department of Energy. Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC). 2015b. Federal and state laws and incentives. U.S. Department of Energy. Benecchi, A., Mattila, M., and Syed, S. N. 2010. PEV Readiness Study: Electric Vehicles in America. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and Rocky Mountain Institute. Carley, S., R. Krause, B. Lane, J. Graham. 2013. “Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle: A survey of early impressions in large US cites.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 18. EIA. 2015. Table 6: 2013 Utility Bundled Retail Sales – Residential. Electric Sales, Revenue, and Price. Egbue, O., & Long, S. 2012. “Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: an analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions.” Energy Policy, 48, 717-729. GasBuddy. 2015. USA and Canada Current Average Gas Prices by City/State/Province. Lutsey, N., Searle, S., Chambliss, S., and Bandivadekar, A. 2015. Assessment of Leading Electric Vehicle Promotion Activities in United States Cities. International Council on Clean Transportation.

Scoring Methodology

Scoring Methodology cont.

Scoring Methodology cont.

Simple Score - Detail

Weighted Score - Detail

weighting

Weighted score by category = ZEV states