Labour Markets in SubSaharan Africa workshop, CapeTown 27 November, 2015

 The context  Motivation and objective  Stylized facts about Nigeria’s Labour Market  Methodology and data  Results  Potential:- Demographic dividend  Conclusions and Challenges

 Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa with a population of about million in 2010 and million in The sixth most populous nation in the world  After decades of military rule, the country has successfully engaged on the path of democracy since 1999, and since then has enjoyed consistent and strong growth.  Economic Growth in Nigeria under Different Regimes

 Real GDP growth has been strong, averaging 6.8 per cent over the last decade,  The rebasing of its GDP in April 2014 better reflect the structure of the economy, saw it surge to become Africa’s largest economy with a reviewed GDP estimate of $454 billion in 2012 and $510 billion in 2013 (compared with the $259 billion and $270 billion that were reported previously).  The rebased data also reveals a more diversified economy than previously thought, with important sources of growth coming from manufacturing (especially food and beverages) and previously undocumented services (including the entertainment industry). Source: McKinsey and Co 2014 Result of the Rebasing

 Nigerian economy is transforming from an agrarian economy to a tertiary service economy, without going through the intermediate stage of industrialization.  Recent growth has not translated into significant social and human development. The 2010 Nigeria Poverty Profile Report (NBS) estimated the poverty incidence at 69 per cent in 2010, up from 54.4 per cent in 2004 using the Harmonized National Living Standard Survey (HNLSS) of 2009/2010.  Unemployment has also assumed an inexorable dimension, reaching 25.1 percent in 2014, with up to 18 million people unemployed  The objective of the paper is to try to understand Nigeria’s high economic growth from an employment perspective.

 Nigeria’s population increased by 2.8 % from million in 2005 to million in 2010 and million in  Labour force grew by 2.9% on average, from 65.2 million in 2010 to 72.9 million in  Total labour force in full remunerative employment increased at a meagre average of 2% over the period compared to 6.1% and 16.48% for the underemployed and unemployed population respectively.  Industry contribution to growth which accelerated from 43.5% in 1990 to 52.3 % in 2005, declined steadily; as the services sector value added to GDP fired up from 23.7% in 2005 to 54.1% and 59.1% in 2010 and 2014 respectively

Unemployment rate across Nigeria has been very high since the beginning of this century. The indicator which measures the proportion of active population that is without and actively seeking work increased to 25.1 percent in 2014 from 24.7 percent in 2013

 The study adopted growth decomposition methods recommended by the World Bank and also used by McMillan and Rodrik (2012).  Job Generation and Growth Decomposition (JoGG)tool - growth is linked to changes in employment, output per worker and population structure at the aggregate and sectoral level.  The approach has been adopted to analyse the incidence of jobless growth in Uganda (Bbaale, 2013) and Rwanda (Malunda, 2013).  Decomposition for the period of 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014  Obtaining data from various issues of Economic Survey of Government of Nigeria, NBS and NISER.  The sectoral disaggregation of the economy into agriculture, mining, quarrying and construction, manufacturing and Services.

’90-94’95-99’00-04’05-09’10-14 Agriculture Value-Added (% of GDP Industry Value- Added (% of GDP) Services Value-Added (% of GDP) Growth in GDP (%) Share of different sectors in Nigerian GDP Growth, 5 year averages ( ) Industry, especially manufacturing has transformed in several ways especially with the dominance of global supply chains. As Rodrick recently established, manufacturing has become much more capital and skills intensive, with diminished potential to absorb large amounts of labour released from low-productivity agriculture (Rodrick, 2014).

Agriculture has continued to provide the most jobs for the country’s labour force albeit declining. In 2014, it accounted for 45 percent of all jobs, down from 51 percent in 2000 Service sector is the second largest job providing sector rising from 24 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2014, while the share of the manufacturing sector fell from 11 percent in 2000 to 6 percent in 2014.

% change ( ) % change ( ) GDP (value added) (millions Naira) 37, , , , Total population (million) , Total Working Age population (million) Total number employed (million) GDP (value added) per capita 270,726322, , , Output per worker 762, , ,066,144 1,255, Employment rate Share of working age population in total population percent and 5.93 percent reduction in employment an increase in labour productivity by 29.5 percent and 17.8 percent in the two periods respectively.

( )( ) Change in Per Capita value price) in NAIRA Percent of total change in per capita value added growth Change in Per Capita value price) in NAIRA Percent of total change in per capita value added growth Total growth in per capita GDP 51, , Growth linked to change in output per worker 76, , Growth linked to changes employment rate -22, , Growth linked to changes in the ratio of Working Age Population in total population -2, , percent and 64.3 percent of the change in per capita value added can be linked to a decrease in the employment rate in Nigeria over the and periods respectively

( )( ) Contribution to change in total employment rate (percent points) Percentage contribution of the sector to total employment rate growth Contribution to change in total employment rate (percent points) Percentage contribution of the sector to total employment rate growth Agriculture Manufacturing Mining and Quarrying, and Construction etc Services Total employment rate

( )( ) Contribution to Change in Total Output per Worker Contribution to Change in Total Output per Worker (%) Contribution to Change in Total Output per Worker Contribution to Change in Total Output per Worker (%) Agriculture Manufacturing Mining and Quarrying, and Construction etc -64, , Services 137, , Inter-sectoral shift 55, , Total change in output per worker 224, , The inter-sectoral shift effect on output per worker was 55,285.4 Naira in the 2005 – 2009 period however, the effect reduced marginally within the period (43,577.9 Naira)

service sector played the biggest role from 2005 – 2009 to within sector changes in worker productivity and also highest contribution to employment changes

SectorEstimated Elasticity Overall *** Agriculture0.4810*** Manufacturing Services0.8531*** A log linear regression equation between employment and GDP using annual data between 1981 and 2014 The aggregate employment elasticity estimates is 0.11, which implies that with every 1 percentage point growth in GDP, employment increases by just eleven basis points.

 The current demographic structure of the country exhibits a growing youthful population with an estimated median age of the population to be 17.9 years (17.3 for males and 18.4 for females) as well as the fact that 42 percent of the population are aged less than 14 years, 29 percent aged years and 24 percent are in the ages of years (NPC, 2009; UN, 2013).  TFR is estimated to have fallen to 5.73 in 2015 and is projected to slide further to 5.10 by Hence, working age population which is also estimated at 52.9 percent in 2015 is expected to expand further to 55.1 percent by 2030, as the under-15 population contracts. This growth would mean that the working age population (WAP) will grow from 97 million in 2015 to 151 million in 2030, almost 16 percent of Africa’s labour force.  An empirical study carried out by Bloom et al, estimated that not only will Nigeria’s economy be three times larger than today in 2030 with GDP per capita increasing more than 29 percent but also, the country has the capacity to lift about 31.8million people out of poverty if the country can overcome her challenges to collect its demographic dividend.

 Nigeria has been experiencing jobless growth. Job opportunities in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors have been below average, compelling people (especially the poor) to move into other sectors. Services and construction have been the most absorptive sectors.  There is no significant structural change in employment and productivity front, although the share of agriculture in the total GDP has decelerated marginally over the years.  Although the service sector seems to be gaining strength in employment creation, it has however remained a low productivity sector, and has continued to provide low-productive jobs.  Sectors absorbing the influx of labour are also now experiencing decline in productivity, except the construction industry which expanded in terms of employment and productivity.

 Nigeria would need to galvanise its policy space not only to stimulate job creation and productivity within sectors, but also to ensure decent growth in high productivity sectors that will further encourage labour movements into such sectors  The country can also reap a major demographic dividend from concrete labour market policies and developing human capital necessary for the economy.  Lastly, the manufacturing industry has remained untapped, especially its potential in diversifying and expanding the country’s industrial base and decent jobs creating potential.  Challenges ◦ Infrastructural Deficits ◦ Poor Governance, corruption and Weak Institutions ◦ Insecurity

 Thank you for your attention