Doug S Butterworth MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa A CAUTION Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future FISHERIES MANAGEMENT – WHAT’S COMING NEXT?

OUTLINE I. Science and Scientists II. ENGOs and Ecolabeling III. Objectives for Management IV. Governance V. What should industry be doing?

I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS SCIENCE - ASSESSMENT GENETICS No – not for stock structure Abundance estimation using genetic fingerprinting and mark recapture concepts Close kin (parent-offspring) Genetic tagging (avoids reporting rate problems)

I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS SCIENCE – EAF/EBFM Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management By-catch controls Increasing emphasis Species interactions (predator-prey) Important, but progress will be slow Habitat impact “Eye of the beholder” Environment/Climate change Predictive ability a good way off

I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS SCIENTISTS Reduction of financial support Especially Governments, except perhaps ENGOs Diminishing quantitative expertise Diminishing quantitative expertise I see only the USA investing seriously in succession for the baby-boomer cohort A DEFINITE CONCERN A DEFINITE CONCERN

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING ENGOs - A mixed blessing Provide pressure for necessary improvements but Over-emphasise special interest agendas A KEY PROBLEM The typical ENGO public fund-raising model Requires continual “issues” to motivate funds provision Hence no agreement on an issue is likely to be final

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING THE 2008 WATERSHED Under ENGO pressure, the supermarket buyers of Northern Europe agreed to sell fish products only if they were MSC certified Under ENGO pressure, the supermarket buyers of Northern Europe agreed to sell fish products only if they were MSC certified They thereby performed a silent and unrealised coup d’etat on Ministers of Fisheries as to who decides fisheries policy They thereby performed a silent and unrealised coup d’etat on Ministers of Fisheries as to who decides fisheries policy A MAJOR GAME CHANGER

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING MSC – SEPTEMBER LANDMARK RULING ADJUDICATOR RULING (given ENGO objection): Certification must fail without a harvest control rule formally accepted by the managing authority Certification must fail without a harvest control rule formally accepted by the managing authority A VERY POSITIVE STEP? Isn’t pre-agreement of what to do when stock status deteriorates a sine qua non for sound management? Isn’t pre-agreement of what to do when stock status deteriorates a sine qua non for sound management?

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING ENGOs will continue to press for more stringent MSC criteria BUT BUT Developing countries will be increasingly unable to meet such criteria Lack of expertise/infrastructure Lack of expertise/infrastructure Loss of incentive/opportunity to improve fisheries management where most needed Loss of incentive/opportunity to improve fisheries management where most needed HOW WILL THE MSC REACT? HOW WILL THE MSC REACT?

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING ENGOs: THE GREAT PUSH FOR MPAs ENGOs: THE GREAT PUSH FOR MPAs WHY? WHY? MPAs HAVE LIMITED POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE UTILISATION OF FISH RESOURCES????? PERHAPS AN OUTFLANKING STRATEGY? INDUSTRY INFLUENCE GENERALLY DOMINATES IN FISHERIES DEPARTMENTS AND RFMOs INDUSTRY INFLUENCE GENERALLY DOMINATES IN FISHERIES DEPARTMENTS AND RFMOs CONTINUING APPEALS THEN DIRECTED RATHER TO, EG, THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY CONTINUING APPEALS THEN DIRECTED RATHER TO, EG, THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY MOTIVATED BY A CONCERN THAT STANDARD FISHERIES MANAGEMENT WILL FAIL? – JUSTIFIED? MOTIVATED BY A CONCERN THAT STANDARD FISHERIES MANAGEMENT WILL FAIL? – JUSTIFIED?

III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT EG THE US MAGNUSSON-STEVENS ACT AVOID OVERFISHING: F > F MSY OVERFISHED: B < (0.5)B MSY - NEEDS RECOVERY BUT BUT HOW WELL CAN WE ESTIMATE MSY AND ? HOW WELL CAN WE ESTIMATE MSY AND B MSY ? FOR MOST USA STOCKS PROXIES HAVE TO BE USED FOR MOST USA STOCKS PROXIES HAVE TO BE USED MIXED SPECIES FISHERIES - CHOKE STOCKS MIXED SPECIES FISHERIES - CHOKE STOCKS NEW ENGLAND: NEW ENGLAND: Only half of overall groundfish TACs landable Fishery facing economic extinction Fishery facing economic extinction

III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT MORE REALISM NEEDED MORE REALISM NEEDED DROP THE F < F MSY REQUIREMENT DROP THE F < F MSY REQUIREMENT MANAGE FOR GREATER CATCH STABILITY OVER TIME MANAGE FOR GREATER CATCH STABILITY OVER TIME ADVANCES IN SPECIES-INTERACTION MODELLING ARE NEEDED ADVANCES IN SPECIES-INTERACTION MODELLING ARE NEEDED CAN ALL SPECIES IN A MIXED FISHERY DELIVER MSY, B MSY SIMULTANEOUSLY? BUT FOR CLEARLY DEPLETED STOCKS, INSIST ON SOME INCREASE BUT FOR CLEARLY DEPLETED STOCKS, INSIST ON SOME INCREASE BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS: BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS: RISES IN THE REAL COST OF FUEL WILL NECESSITATE HIGHER ABUNDANCES IN THE LONGER TERM

III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT PROPERTY RIGHTS PROPERTY RIGHTS NECESSARY FOR AN INCENTIVE TO CONSERVE BUT LIMITS (FISHERY SPECIFIC) ARE NEEDED ON MAXIMUM HOLDINGS LIMITS (FISHERY SPECIFIC) ARE NEEDED ON MAXIMUM HOLDINGS RIGHTS IN PERPETUITY ARE OFTEN POLITICALLY PROBLEMATIC RIGHTS IN PERPETUITY ARE OFTEN POLITICALLY PROBLEMATIC NEED SOME MECHANISM TO ALLOW LIMITED CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM

IV) GOVERNANCE WHAT WORKS vs WHERE ARE THERE PROBLEMS AND WHY? NO-ONE HAS A PERFECT SOLUTION WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs? WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs? CONTROL RULES vs AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY CONTROL RULES vs AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY COMMUNICATION COMMUNICATION

IV) GOVERNANCE WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs? THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE THE US EXPERIMENT: THE US EXPERIMENT: SCIENTIFIC (SSC) TAC ADVICE (BASED ON PRE-SET GENERAL GUIDELINES) MAY NOT BE EXCEEDED NOT IDEAL NOT IDEAL IRRESPONSIBLE COMMENTS AND INSUFFICIENTLY INTERESTED/EXPERIENCED PEOPLE NEEDS A BALANCED GROUP OF SCIENTISTS, MANAGERS AND STAKEHOLDERS

IV) GOVERNANCE CONTROL RULES vs AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE RECENT MSC ADJUDICATION FOR CONROL RULES RECENT MSC ADJUDICATION FOR CONROL RULES SCIENTISTS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOUR THE CONTROL RULE APPROACH DON’T BE SCARED OF SUPPOSED INFLEXIBILITY SOUND RULES WILL GIVE YOU (THROUGH DUE PROCESS) SOUND RULES WILL GIVE YOU (THROUGH DUE PROCESS) GREATER STABILITY BETTER PROTECTION AGAINST MAVERICK INFLUENCES AND DECISIONS

IV) GOVERNANCE COMMUNICATION (THE INADEQUACY THEREOF) MANAGERS AND INDUSTRY SELDOM HAVE A GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF FISHERY MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES SELDOM HAVE A GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF FISHERY MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES OFTEN AREN’T PREPARED TO SPEND SUFFICIENT TIME TO LEARN THEM OFTEN AREN’T PREPARED TO SPEND SUFFICIENT TIME TO LEARN THEM MANAGERS CHANGE TOO FREQUENTLY MANAGERS CHANGE TOO FREQUENTLYSCIENTISTS THEIR PRESENTATION STYLE IS GENERALLY HOPELESSLY INAPPROPRIATE FOR LAY AUDIENCES THEIR PRESENTATION STYLE IS GENERALLY HOPELESSLY INAPPROPRIATE FOR LAY AUDIENCES HOW RELIABLE ARE THEIR PROMISES OF GAIN TOMORROW FROM PAIN TODAY? (New England???) HOW RELIABLE ARE THEIR PROMISES OF GAIN TOMORROW FROM PAIN TODAY? (New England???) 200% IMPROVEMENT NEEDED FROM BOTH SIDES

V) WHAT SHOULD IDUSTRY BE DOING? INVEST MORE IN SCIENCE AND FISHERY INDEPENDENT SURVEYS MAKE MORE USE OF CREDIBLE SCIENTIFIC ADVISORS (AVOIDING THE HIRED GUN ROUTE) IMPROVE INDUSTRY-GROUP CO-ORDINATION BASE POSITIONS ON DEFENSIBLE PRINCIPLES AVOID SHORT-TERM EXPEDIENCY, WHICH WILL RETURN TO BITE YOU

Thank you for your attention