“Dot movie” – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc Population time-line – http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numbers.html

Human Geography Studying Population

Objectives Where do people live and why? Why do populations rise and fall in particular places? How does the geography of health influence population dynamics? How do governments affect population change?

How do geographers study population? Geographers use demography- statistical study of human populations

APHG Population - Chapter 2 Population Density Arithmetic Population Density – the total number of people divided by the total land area (This measure is also called population density.) Arithmetic density enables geographers to make approximate comparisons of the number of people trying to live on a given piece of land in different regions of the world. There is no relationship between arithmetic density and standard of living. population people per square mile = area llhammon Spring 2015

Arithmetic Population Density APHG Population - Chapter 2 Arithmetic Population Density Arithmetic population density is the number of people per total land area. The highest densities are found in parts of Asia and Europe. llhammon Spring 2015

United States Population Density 319,030,322 90 people per square mile = 3,541,447 mi2

China vs. Canada for China: 1,355,692,576 366 people per square mile = for Canada: 34,300,083 9 people per square mile = 3,855,103 mi2

APHG Population - Chapter 2 Physiologic Density A more meaningful population measure is by looking at the number of people per area of a certain type of land in a region. The number of people supported by a unit of arable land is called the physiologic population density. Comparing physiologic and arithmetic densities helps geographers to understand the capacity of the land to yield enough food for the needs of people. llhammon Spring 2015

APHG Population - Chapter 2 Physiologic Density Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is good measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society. llhammon Spring 2015

APHG Population - Chapter 2 Agriculture Density Two countries can have similar physiological densities, but they may produce different amounts of food because of different economic conditions. Agriculture density is the ratio of the number of farmers to the amount of arable land. The Netherlands has a much higher physiological density than does India but a lower agriculture density. Agriculture density is directly related to standard of living llhammon Spring 2015

Measures of Density

Do you know…Write your best guess. 1. What is the world population? 2. How many people live in the United States? 3. What is the population of Texas? 4. What is the population of San Antonio?

The Census The census is a count of everyone living in the United States every 10 years. The census is required by the U.S. Constitution. The last census was in 2010. Your participation in the census is required by law. The first Census was conducted in 1790 and has been carried out every 10 years since then.

Population Distribution APHG Population - Chapter 2 Population Distribution Areas that are sparsely inhabited- People generally avoid: Dry lands (areas too dry for farming = 20 %) Cold lands (permafrost!) Wet lands (close to equator: rain + heat = nutrients depleted from the soil) High lands (highest mtns. are steep and snow-covered) llhammon Spring 2015

Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 B.C.–A.D. 1900 APHG Population - Chapter 2 Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 B.C.–A.D. 1900 The ecumene, or the portion of the Earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area. llhammon Spring 2015

Studying Population Natural Increase – the percentage by which a population grows in a year Crude birth rate (CBR) – the number of births per 1,000 population Crude death rate (CDR) – the number of deaths per 1,000 population Total fertility rate (TFR) - the number of children an average woman in a society will have through her childbearing years. Infant mortality rate - the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births per year. Life expectancy at birth - the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live.

Population Reference Bureau http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2015/2015-world-population-data-sheet/world-map.aspx#map/world/births/imr

Natural Increase Rates APHG Population - Chapter 2 Natural Increase Rates The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration). llhammon Spring 2015

Studying Population United States 1960 2006 2012 23.7 14.3 13.7 9.5 Birthrate (per 1000) 23.7 14.3 13.7 Death rate (per 1000) 9.5 8.1 8.4 Natural Increase 14.2 6.2 5.3

APHG Population - Chapter 2 Crude Birth Rates The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are in Africa and several Asian countries. The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1,000 population per year. llhammon Spring 2015

APHG Population - Chapter 2 Crude Death Rates ?? Because wealthy countries are in a late stage of the demographic transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countries. The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country per 1,000 population per year. llhammon Spring 2015

APHG Population - Chapter 2 Total Fertility Rates The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children an average woman in a society will have through her childbearing years. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest are in Africa and parts of the Middle East. llhammon Spring 2015

Infant Mortality Rates APHG Population - Chapter 2 Infant Mortality Rates The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births per year. The highest infant mortality rates are found in some of the poorest countries of Africa and Asia. llhammon Spring 2015

Life Expectancy at birth APHG Population - Chapter 2 Life Expectancy at birth Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live. The highest life expectancies are generally in the wealthiest countries, and the lowest in the poorest countries. llhammon Spring 2015

Population Reference Bureau http://www.prb.org/pdf15/2015-world-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2015/2015-world-population-data-sheet/world-map.aspx#map/world/population/pop65

Doubling Time Doubling Time of a population (years) : 70 / Population Growth Rate (%) ( 70 / 2.0% = 35 years ) Rule of 70 :determine how long it would take for a population to double at its present growth rate. divide 70 by the population’s annual growth rate to determine the years needed to double the size of the population.

Human Population Doubling Time

World Population Cartogram APHG Population - Chapter 2 World Population Cartogram This cartogram displays countries by the size of their population rather than their land area. (Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.) llhammon Spring 2015

Warm-up: Wednesday Use the statistics to answer the following questions: 1. What country is projected to be the most populous by 2050? 2. What continent has the top 12 highest fertility rates? 3. Where does the majority of the world’s population live? (more developed or less developed countries?) 4. Compare the population data of more developed countries and less developed countries.

Critical Issues in Population Geography More people are alive today than at any other time in human history. The world’s population increased at a faster rate during the second half of the 20th century than ever before. Virtually all population growth today occurs in less developed countries (LDCs)

APHG Population - Chapter 2 World Population Growth, 1750–2150 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_9SutNmfFk&feature=BF&list=ULadYPZ59_AUc&index=1 llhammon Spring 2015

Demographic Transition Model What is a model? a representation of some phenomenon of the real world made in order to facilitate an understanding of its workings a simplified and generalized version of real events, from which the incidental detail has been removed https://www.populationeducation.org/content/what-demographic-transition-model

Demographic Transition Model When using this model, what is not considered when looking at population growth?

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Increase Reasons for changes in birth rate Reasons for changes in death rate

Stage 1: High Stationary Applied to most of the world before the Industrial Revolution Both birth rates and death rates are high As a result, population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics.

Stage 1 Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model is considered the pre-industrial stage, or pre-transition, and today no countries are classified within Stage 1 of the DTM. This is quite a feat given that for all of human history up until the 18th Century, all countries were considered within Stage 1.

Stage 2: Early Expanding The introduction of modern medicine lowers death rates, especially among children, while birth rates remain high; the result is rapid population growth. Many of the least developed countries today are in Stage 2.

Stage 3: Late Expanding Birth rates gradually decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women’s status, and access to contraception. Population growth continues, but at a lower rate. Most developing countries are in Stage 3.

Stage 4: Low Stationary Birth and death rates are both low, stabilizing the population. These countries tend to have stronger economies, higher levels of education, better healthcare, a higher proportion of working women, and a fertility rate hovering around two children per woman. Most developed countries are in Stage 4.

Stage 5: Declining? A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level (2 children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful population.

Demographic Transition Model: The 5-stage version

Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model Like any model, there will be outliers and exceptions to the rule and the Demographic Transition Model is no different. Additionally, there are things the DTM cannot reveal: the impact of other demographic variables such as migration, are not considered, nor does the model predict how long a country will be in each stage. But even so, the relationship between birth rate and death rate is an important concept when discussing population and any patterns, such as those provided by the DTM, that aid in understanding are helpful.

Let’s look at a few countries … Sketch the Demographic Transition Model on the white board. Then use the stats to put a dot where each country lies. US Crude Birth Rate: 12.49 Crude Death Rate: 8.15

Germany Nigeria Papua New Guinea Japan Saudi Arabia CBR: 8.47 CDR: 11.42 Nigeria CBR: 37.64 CDR: 12.9 Papua New Guinea CBR: 24.38 CDR: 6.53 Japan CBR: 7.93 CDR: 9.51 Saudi Arabia CBR: 18.51 CDR: 3.33

Warm-up: Thursday According to this graph, what happens to population in the long-term?

Population Pyramids

Understanding Population Pyramids http://ed.ted.com/lessons/population-pyramids-powerful-predictors-of-the-future-kim-preshoff

On the left side you can see the number of men in each age group and on the right you can see the same information for women. What is a “cohort”? What age group has the greatest difference in number between men and women?

Nigeria is a country in west Africa with much less wealth and economic development than the USA. What are some of the differences between the populations of Nigeria and the United States? What might be some possible reasons for this?

While there is subtle differences in the shape of the two pyramids there is one MAJOR difference that will mean big challenges for India’s future. What is it?

Afghanistan is country in Central Asia which has experienced non-stop war over the last 30 years. The USA and its allies invaded Afghanistan in 2001 in response to the Afghanistan’s government support of terrorism. How will the population change over the next 30 years? What will have to be built to accommodate this growth?

Japan, unlike Afghanistan, has enjoyed tremendous prosperity and economic growth since the end of WWII. These two pyramids show one of the problems Japan is facing today and will certainly have to address in its future. How is Japan’s challenges different from Afghanistan’s?

Copy the information * Rapid growth http://www.slideshare.net/lntrullin/understanding-population-pyramids

Population Pyramids in U.S. Cities APHG Population - Chapter 2 Population Pyramids in U.S. Cities Population pyramids can vary greatly, with different fertility rates (Laredo vs. Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and retirement communities (Naples). llhammon Spring 2015

Explain this!