What we thought we knew  Increasing efficiency and reusing materials will play important roles in achieving sustainable development.  Eco-efficient companies and industries must deliver competitively priced goods and services that improve peoples' quality of life, while reducing ecological impacts and resource-use intensity to a level within the Earth's carrying capacity.

What we thought we knew Globally, the goal was to quadruple resource productivity so that efficiency is doubled, and resource use is halved (this concept is known as Factor Four). Then there was factor ten and then…

Sustainability Study  A study was initiated by five state ministries of the Netherlands  It was focused on translating the Bruntland commission statement into quantitative estimates of average per capita annual entitlements to resources and waste emissions.

Time horizon  The time horizon was 50 years.  This study clarified three main points;

Factor 10 and factor 50  First it quantified the extent of the challenge implied by sustainability - the need for factor 20 to factor 50 (and more) improvements in eco- efficiency.  (Since the study authors estimate factor needed)

Challenge  Second it showed this challenge to be far beyond the range of improvement possible through end of pipe technologies and even most “environmental” technologies including so called integrated solutions.

Product development Thirdly:  It is inadvisable to follow the traditional route of studying present products and processes as a way of identifying areas for improvement.  Rather it may be better to begin by accepting that sustainable technologies will most often consist of path-breaking approaches to meeting needs that are radically different from the solutions we have in place today.

Sustainable technologies  The study’s conclusions also mean (my interpretation) that there are;  no existing sustainable technologies today

Design Concepts  Thus sustainable technologies would be those technologies that meet needs using only a fraction of the eco capacity used in today's technologies.

Incrementalism  Such technologies will not come about by incremental improvement of existing technologies.  So the focus is on how we can design products that are pathbreaking

Design Implications  Over the horizon Design  Foresighting  Backcasting  Creating Research pathways

Design Implications  But really can we expect corporations with extensive product lines to accept foresighting and scenario building  Can it work  Do we get it right now?  Tennyson Foresighting Theory

Tennyson’s Foresighting Theory  For I dipped into the future, far as human eye could see, Saw the Vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be;  Saw the heavens fill with commerce, argosies of magic sails, Pilots of the purple twilight, dropping down with costly bales

Foresighting  Tennyson got it right and the key word is “I”  1972 Black rooms ASEA Foresighting Team  Delivered UHV Directional Wave detection based on 40 year TFT