OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID JESS CHARBA FRED SAMPLATSKY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA.

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Presentation transcript:

OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID JESS CHARBA FRED SAMPLATSKY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA Details =

OUTLINE TSTM FCST PRODUCTS STATISTICAL MODEL CASE STUDIES FCST PERFORMANCE SCORES OPERATIONAL ASPECTS COMMENTS

TSTM FCST PRODUCTS 2- H PROB. AND CAT. FCSTS TO 25 HRS HOURLY ISSUANCES 20-KM GRID (NDFD GRID COMPATIBLE) CONUS COVERAGE TAILORED FOR AVIATION APPL.

STATISTICAL MODEL REGIONALIZED REGRESSION EQUATIONS ON 20-KM GRID MULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTS REGIONS

PREDICTOR INPUTS CURRENT CTG LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY CURRENT SURFACE OBS GFS MOS THUNDERSTORM PROB. GFS OUTPUT (SUPPLEMENTAL) THUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGY TOPOGRAPHY

DISCRETE AND OVERLAPPING REGIONS

DISCRETE REGIONS OVERLAPPING REGIONS & BOUNDARY SMOOTHING 9-H TSTM PROB (%) FROM 0900 UTC 18 MAR 2008

OVERLAP REGIONS (OVLP) AND BOUND. SMOOTHING (BS) HAD NO AFFECT ON SKILL

FORECAST PERFORMANCE CASE STUDIES CASE STUDIES FROM 2008 FROM 2008

6-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z3-H PROB (%) FROM 18Z NO. LTG STRK 19-21Z 8 JUNE 2008

8-9 JUNE H PROB (%) FROM 15Z3-H PROB (%) FROM 21Z NO. LTG STRK 22-00Z

9 JUNE H PROB (%) FROM 03Z3-H PROB (%) FROM 06Z NO. LTG STRK 07-09Z

1 SEPTEMBER H PROB (%) FROM 12ZNO. LTG STRK 13-15Z RADAR EST. PRECIP (”) 12-18Z X HUR. GUSTAV

FORECAST PERFORMANCE SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC. SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC. FROM FROM

PROBABILITY FORECASTS 0900 UTC

CATEGORICAL FORECASTS 0900 UTC

OPERATIONAL ASPECTS 24 CYCLES DAILY (YEAR ROUND) AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE WEATHER ENTERPRISE AND WORLD WIDE WEB PRODUCTS TAILORED BY INDIVIDUAL USERS

LAMP – CCFP HYBRID PRODUCT

COMMENTS LAMP THUNDERSTORM PROGRAM FULLY IMPLEMENTED PRODUCTS WELL RECEIVED, ESP. BY AVIATION WEATHER USERS

THE END