Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH. Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012

Forecasting in 1997 Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete , SCB for GDP ?

Forecasting in % until 2010 Economic growth -> higher incomes -> more cars -> more and longer trips ->more km Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete , SCB for GDP, PERSONTRANSPORTERNAS UTVECKLING TILL 2010 reported by SIKA 2001

Today’s data Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete , SCB for GDP, PERSONTRANSPORTERNAS UTVECKLING TILL 2010 reported by SIKA 2001, Trafikanalys körsträckor

Why is it happening? Lifestyles Investments and Policy Technology Demography Urbanization Economy

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden We keep having cars

…but we drive them somewhat less Source: Trafikanalys, based on bilprovningen source: Trafikanalys, Bilprovningen and population counts from SCB

Single man student no children age 20 city apartment in 2012 Who drives how much compared to him? +- Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, dailly personal travel survey, tobit regression coefficients for the car driver km, no interaction effects included effects significant at 95% +

Urbanization reduces national car km per person

Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options Prepare for change in tax intakes / financing Public transit gains importance If car use declines, design for car-free access If car use increases, manage demand Policy effect / potential to steer future is greater than assumed Policy implications

Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey, car licence survey question

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

source: Trafikanalys, / SIKA

source: SCB

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden