A Proposed New Strategy for Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Based on Western Pacific TCS08 Proof of Concept Peter G. Black (1), Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2) and Russell L. Elsberry (3) (1) Naval Research Laboratory and SAIC, Inc., Monterey, CA (2) Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA (3) Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 63 rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference St. Petersburg, Florida 2-6 March, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 Research Flights Missions: 28 Missions: 28 Mission Flight Hours: 263 Mission Flight Hours: 263 High-Level Depression 300mb Missions: 12 High-Level Depression 300mb Missions: 12 Tropical Cyclones: 4 Tropical Cyclones: 4 TC 700mb Missions: 12 TC 700mb Missions: 12 Buoy Deployment Missions: 2 Buoy Deployment Missions: 2 GPS Dropsondes Deployed: 750 GPS Dropsondes Deployed: 750 AXBTs Deployed: 250 AXBTs Deployed: 250 Drifting Buoys Deployed: 24 Drifting Buoys Deployed: 24 Number Flight Personnel: 75 Number Flight Personnel: 75 WC-130J Aircraft: 2 WC-130J Aircraft: 2 WC-130J Aircraft Performance

WC-130J Capabilities Endurance:12-hourEndurance: 12-hour Ceiling:300 mb, i.e. 9.7 km (31K ft) altitudeCeiling: 300 mb, i.e. 9.7 km (31K ft) altitude (after 2.5-hr transit)(after 2.5-hr transit) WPAC Range- from Guam, staging to KadenaWPAC Range- from Guam, staging to Kadena Okinawa & Yakota, Japan: E, 7-42NOkinawa & Yakota, Japan: E, 7-42N Real-time HDOB, 1-sec resolution recordedReal-time HDOB, 1-sec resolution recorded SFMR surface windsSFMR surface winds GPS sonde deploymentGPS sonde deployment AXBT deploymentAXBT deployment Radar Video RecordingRadar Video Recording

New Recco Strategy Needed Shift focus in developing systems toward defining vertical structure over a domainShift focus in developing systems toward defining vertical structure over a domain Focus on better definition of 3D initial vortex for evolving coupled modelsFocus on better definition of 3D initial vortex for evolving coupled models Driven by emerging requirements for improved 5 to 7 day forecasts and related requirement to improve genesis and intensity change forecastingDriven by emerging requirements for improved 5 to 7 day forecasts and related requirement to improve genesis and intensity change forecasting

CONCLUSIONS o The strategy of flying high in weak systems, in concert with remote sensing guidance, rather than flying low looking for weak circulations, is an idea whose time has come. o This requires additional expenditures for expendables: an average of 26 GPS dropsondes and 13 AXBTs per flight at one deg resolution for sondes, two deg resolution for AXBTs. Added expenses of approximately 50% relative to flight hour and personell costs would be required. o With Use of recorded radar video in concert with near-real time satellite microwave products, sonde profiles can be co-located relative to clusters of active convection and observations. This will allow forecasters to determine the altitude and strength of developing meso-synoptic vortices and greatly enhance situational awareness during the tropical cyclone forecast and warning process. o We are at an historic turning point in history for improving hurricane intensity observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the TC surface and mid-level wind domain concurrent with subsurface ocean thermal structure matches the improved coupled model capabilities to assimilate and model the total TC environment. This alignment should provide the next best opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.

Unprecidented Real-Time Satellite Capabilities: Data Fusion

TCS08 Aug Google-Earth WC-130J:blue P3: yellow DATA FUSION Developers: Joe Turk, NRL Bob Creasey, NPS

TCS08 Flight Patterns-1 Base of Operations Bow-Tie Racetrack Square Spiral Zig-Zag

TCS08 Flight Patterns-2 Base of Operations Bow-Tie Figure 4 Butterfly Rotated Fig 4

Upper Ocean Heat Content TCS25 28 Aug, GMT Developer: Dong-Shan Ko, NRL-Stennis

SSMIS- F16 27 Sept, 2213 GMT WC-130J sondes- SFC 27 Aug, 21 UTC - 28 Aug, 03 UTC

SSMIS- F16 27 Sept, 2213 GMT WC-130J sondes- 700 MB 27 Aug, 21 UTC - 28 Aug, 03 UTC

SSMIS- F16 27 Sept, 2213 GMT WC-130J sondes- 700 MB 27 Aug, 21 UTC - 28 Aug, 03 UTC

0330 UTC 7 Sept, UTC 7 Sept, 2008 Data Fusion:Google-Earth Enhanced IR + WC-130J flight track, Dropsonde locations

Surface

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TCS08 AXBT Locations Ko, NRL Stennis AXBT vs NRL Ocean Model Initial Conditions TCS08 Ocean Heat Content Obs: Concurrent with GPS dropsondes Preview of ITOP2010

Ko, NRL Stennis

Operations: Aircraft – buoy deployment P-3 flight track 2313 UTC 26 September First buoy deployment In TY Hagupit several days earlier Second deployment in STY Jangmi Buoy, aircraft, and satellite data in Google Earth First occurrence of the deployment of drifting buoys ahead of a category 5 tropical cyclone (Jangmi). Chart at left and imagery below are from a few hours after the deployment of the buoys along the diagonal to the northwest of the TC

Niiler, Scripps Morzel, NWRA/CoRA

27 Sept, Sept, Sept, Sept, 0006 TCS08- Jangmi

JMA SATCON Intensity: Velden, CIMSS Hawkins, NRL TCS08 Jangmi Sept, 2008 Track/Intensity

STY Jangmi 27 Sept, 2008 QSCAT: Magenta Drift Buoys: Blue SFMR: Black H*WIND

With SFMR Data With QSCAT & ASCAT only H*WIND Analysis STY Jangmi 27 Sept, 2008